Jump to content

1/10 - 1/11 Plains/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm


Tom

Recommended Posts

I know Tom cashed his chips for the night, but some RAP runs have been amped with 50 kt gusts off Lk Michigan in Chicago. As much as I cheer amping storms, in this case with the warmth, it would trash my (now) improving snow chances. Hopefully it will settle down just enough to join the other more moderate outcomes. 

Here ya go bud....... ;)

 

From NOAA Offices:

 

During the upcoming week, the northern stream of the jet will look

to take on a low amplitude, progressive, flow pattern resulting in

weak troughs periodically brushing the region through the front half

of the week. A couple stronger storms may target the area during the

latter half of the week and weekend. More to come on this after we

get through the ice storm.

  • Like 2

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ended up with an even 4.0" just W of DSM about 20 minutes. Didn't think it was going to be much over 3" but the last  band was high in ratios--- since 6pm I had 1.7" ; melted down was .10. So 17:1 and it's still blowing around pretty good.

  • Like 6

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Latest MKX AFD:

 

"UPDATE...The broad 60-70 kt low level jet from central IL to srn
IN will shift newd into lower MI by midnight then across the
lower Great Lakes. The well organized area of low to mid level
warm advection and frontogenesis will shift ewd with the low level
jet btwn 06z and 12z. The warm layer aloft is around 850 mb and
has been increasing over se WI as the low level jet approaches
lower MI. Meanwhile, nly sfc winds and cold advection are
increasing and undercutting the warm layer aloft. The warm layer
aloft currently extends from Lafayette Co. newd through srn Dane
Co. and to srn Sheboygan Co. It will slowly shift sewd after 06Z but
not in time to prevent more freezing rain and icing than expected
for se WI and less snow. After the main batch of pcpn exits btwn
08z and 11Z, freezing drizzle will be expected mainly over se WI
as a mid level dry layer moves into the area while steep low level
lapse rates exist due to the nely flow off Lake MI."

 

Sounds as though the first wave is going to be all rain and freezing rain and little snow in my neck of the woods.  Very disappointing!  Everything depends on that second wave now, but I'm not going to be getting my hopes up only to get them dashed against the rocks once again.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This storm gets a D- from me. Next.

 

What happened with wave 1 out there in Iowa today reminds me of so many warm Nino era storms for SEMI in the mid-80's. WSWarnings for a solid 4-8" storms turned into a couple inches of slop. Sad to see..

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The precip is breaking up in this area, so we're almost done.  I am absolutely NOT looking forward to going outside to freeze while trying to figure out how much snow fell.  I'm sure the wind has blown it into scattered drifts and bare spots.

 

Just eyeballing it from inside the house, I'm guessing we have 1.0-1.5".

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Agree..and so strange being under a WSWarning already hoisted since morning with these conditions. Down here there has been a steady light drizzle/mist tho and I did quite a bit of walking in it this evening. 

It is now up to 47° I have to wonder if we end up with just mostly rain?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

What happened with wave 1 out there in Iowa today reminds me of so many warm Nino era storms for SEMI in the mid-80's. WSWarnings for a solid 4-8" storms turned into a couple inches of slop. Sad to see..

Not even a couple of inches here. All frz rain with a little sleet. We'll see what happens tomorrow. Almost ''today" now. lol

 

My anemometer froze/iced up so no wind data the last 4> hours.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hope not. We will see how it ends up, but for now, it looks very disruptive.

Early morning trends are our friend. Multiple models show us getting dry slotted and spared the icing. Precip is either all snow on the backside, or non-existent. Still details to be ironed out but I feel we'll dodge any icing greater than a glaze.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

ended up with an even 4.0" just W of DSM about 20 minutes. Didn't think it was going to be much over 3" but the last  band was high in ratios--- since 6pm I had 1.7" ; melted down was .10. So 17:1 and it's still blowing around pretty good.

Congrats on the win Grizz!  Sounds like you were only but a few on here that did well with the 1st wave.  I know your a Big snow fan and I bet your enjoying this one.  Meanwhile, I really feel for those to your east/south who got stuck with the sleet/freezing rain scenario, esp when the models are showing a ton of snow!  Cheers to more storm tracking down the piper!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I must say, impressive win per GFS/GEFS/UKIE for "seeing" the SE trend over the last couple days.  Last night's 00z Euro has caved in and turning out to be a nice surprise over here into W MI.  I feel more confident now that 4-5" may be a good bet with this system and that actually means a lot given the performance I'm hearing for those out in IA/WI.

 

FWIW, the models are showing temps crashing into the 20's when the defo band pivots over head which will generate some good ratios and hopefully maybe see some Lehs.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hit 32°. Waiting on the precip to begin now. Last of the raindrops about to freeze up on my trees now and should see a bit of freezing drizzle while (if) the precip fills back in. Projected at 1" of snow, as far as I know.

attachicon.gifcurrent.TAIR.grad (8).png

Impressive change in the Wx down there!  I flipped on TWC last night and there were confirmed tornado's over in E OK.  Was that close by you?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like LOT is contemplating expanding WSW's throughout the metro.  @ Jaycee, you sure you didn't dust off your snow magnet???

 

 

 

Looking ahead to later Saturday into Saturday night, the decided
trend on latest guidance,
including 00z NAM suite, has been for a
bit farther east low pressure track. This would entail bringing
more of the Chicago metro into the deformation area precipitation,
with any mixed precip favored to flip over to a moderate to heavy
snow along with the advertised strong north-northeast winds.

Included in the zone for accumulating snow and wind impacts
Saturday evening could be counties southeast of the current WSW
headlines (such as Will, Grundy, and even parts of northwest IN).
Depending on the duration of the moderate to heavy snow rates
Saturday PM, there could be higher snowfall totals than in current
official forecast. This may also necessitate an eastward
expansion of the going Winter Storm Warning.
Have deferred any
changes to the winter headlines for the incoming midnight shift,
so they can take a complete look at observational trends and the
00z guidance suite.
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nothing but rain and ice here overnight. Everything looks like a mess outside. Fortunately, there doesn't seem to be a significant ice accumulation but my driveway looks very slick.   NWS has now dropped my snow totals for this storm to around 4 inches or so.  Right now, I'd be happy if I end up getting an inch of snow out of this dud!  This winter is just breaking my heart.  I had such high expectations after our cold and wet October.  I know the LR looks cold and snowy but I'm not getting my hopes up just to be disappointed again.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some of the higher rez models are coming in hot for N IL/SE WI...

 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

 

Last, but not least, the 06z GFS...

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Good to see the models coming around.  I feel much better about receiving several inches of snow today.  The radar is showing some heavy snow developing just south of Wichita, that is a great spot for me. I have a nice glaze of ice with frz drizzle falling and winds are gusty.  I would expect Chicago land to do very well today, hope you get a WSW.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well it looks as most of our area will not have a major ice storm this go around (ice storms are kind of rare in Michigan) And that this time it looks like this will mostly be a sleet to some snow event. I say some as it look like maybe a total of around 2 to 4 inches may be what we are looking at. So while a inconvenience it does not look like there will be a historic event this time. At this time I have 35 with light rain falling.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good to see the models coming around. I feel much better about receiving several inches of snow today. The radar is showing some heavy snow developing just south of Wichita, that is a great spot for me. I have a nice glaze of ice with frz drizzle falling and winds are gusty. I would expect Chicago land to do very well today, hope you get a WSW.

Thanks Clinton! This storm is full of surprises. On the way to the gym it was a heavy mist and now it’s snowing! This is fantastic!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm nothing but a rank amateur when it comes to predicting the weather, but I'm concerned that the second wave of this storm may have issues getting its act together.  The severe weather and that squall line to the south seems very intense and may be stealing some of the moisture and energy from the second wave.  The severe weather is the real deal though.  Very impressive to see so many watches and warnings on a morning in mid January!  Don't see that very often. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

New NAM that just started is wrong already. Has the snow very light in far eastern KS and moves out of KC quickly. If you look at Topeka radar, the echoes have grown big time and are much farther west then what the HRRR/NAM show on the most recent runs.

 

KC looks to go into the comma head. Beautiful!!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

New NAM that just started is wrong already. Has the snow very light in far eastern KS and moves out of KC quickly. If you look at Topeka radar, the echoes have grown big time and are much farther west then what the HRRR/NAM show on the most recent runs.

 

KC looks to go into the comma head. Beautiful!!

I was just getting ready to post the same thing, I just transitioned over to sleet which is a good thing cause I have about 1/4in of ice.  I think we are good for 2-5in of snow today,

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...