1/10 - 1/11 Plains/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm

[GDR]

Yes please

[dubuque473]

I'd take it, LOL

 

12.2” would work!

[BMT]

3km NAM

[Tom]

15z SREF's...

 

[Money]

Would stronger first wave mean weaker second wave or doesn’t it really matter?

[Snowshoe]

Watches being issued from NWS Green Bay and La Crosse.

[Sciascia]

15z SREF's...

 

A shutout for NE IL

[james1976]

SREF's way NW lol yeah...

[Stormhunter87]

The local Mets mentioned that they are seeing more moisture available with the first wave. Maybe that's why the serfs and the short range making that shift?

[jcwxguy]

Sref look good for se Nebraska but I'm not buying it

[jcwxguy]

Kcs take

[BMT]

going to be an interesting 24 hours leading up to this thing.  

[bud2380]

DVN snow graphic

 

[Clinton]

Not showing up yet, but KC NWS issuing WSW soon.   They're also predicting highest snow totals (from the second wave) lining up from Ottawa, KS to KCMO to Kirksville, MO.  

 

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES..

.

KS...Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening

for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

 

MO...Flash Flood Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night

for MOZ031>033-038>040-043>046-053-054.

 

Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening

for MOZ025-032-033-039-040-044>046-053-054.

 

Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening

for MOZ004>008-012>017-020>024-028>031-037-038-043.

Here it is.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

327 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2020

 

...Dangerous Travel Conditions Likely Friday Night through

Saturday...

 

MOZ025-032-033-039-040-044>046-053-054-100915-

/O.NEW.KEAX.WS.A.0001.200111T0300Z-200112T0600Z/

Macon-Chariton-Randolph-Saline-Howard-Johnson MO-Pettis-Cooper-

Bates-Henry-

Including the cities of Macon, La Plata, Salisbury, Brunswick,

Keytesville, Moberly, Marshall, Fayette, Glasgow, New Franklin,

Warrensburg, Sedalia, Boonville, Butler, Adrian, Rich Hill,

Clinton, and Windsor

327 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2020

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH

SATURDAY EVENING...

 

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow

accumulations of 3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of around

two tenths of an inch possible.

 

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central and west central

Missouri.

 

* WHEN...From Friday evening through Saturday evening.

 

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

[East Dubzz]

DVN snow graphic

 

 

D**n. I'm still gonna be more cautious and say 4-6" for now, though. 

[BMT]

DVN snow graphic

 

So is this not including what we get Friday night?

[East Dubzz]

18z GFS seems more robust on the first wave as well, but looks like it's trying to show a good amount of sleet. 

[Stacsh]

GFS a touch east so far

[Hawkeye]

Models are definitely catching up to a stronger first wave.

[bud2380]

So is this not including what we get Friday night?

No, but seems DVN thinks we're going to get an inch or less Friday night.  So if we get some bonus snows Friday night, tack that on to this graphic.  

[Money]

Models are definitely catching up to a stronger first wave.

Which means weaker and farther east second wave

[Grizzcoat]

If the GFS keeps catching up like it has with the first wave and moving W, this is getting interesting. Today's record warmth I think has actually helped shift this first wave W and more robust

[bud2380]

GFS just looks weird.  I really don't trust it at all.  It's about as valuable as the 12k NAM to me. It continues to be further east with the 2nd wave than the Euro and the NAM.  

 

 

[FV-Mike]

NAM doesn't want to Cave and the GFS doesn't really want to cave. somewhere in the middle I think is the best idea

[East Dubzz]

DVN updated its wording on the Winter Storm Watch:

 

.A significant winter storm is forecast to impact the area over the weekend with multiple hazards.

Precipitation will start out as all rain on Friday. As colder air gets pulled south the rain will change over to freezing rain and sleet Friday night into Saturday morning with significant ice accumulations possible for parts of the area. The ice will change over to all snow from northwest to southeast on Saturday.

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph Saturday night.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast Missouri, east central, northeast and southeast Iowa and northwest Illinois.

* WHEN...From Friday evening through late Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Drifting and some blowing snow is possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain changing to freezing rain and sleet Friday night. Ice changing to all snow Saturday afternoon before ending Saturday night.

[BrianJK]

NAM doesn't want to Cave and the GFS doesn't really want to cave. somewhere in the middle I think is the bst idea

Isn’t that kind of what Euro was showing? Counties bordering the WI line and north get blasted. Seems like that’s the way to go, if not slightly NW of that.

[Sciascia]

LOT with some updated takes on the storm:

[Hawkeye]

No, but seems DVN thinks we're going to get an inch or less Friday night.  So if we get some bonus snows Friday night, tack that on to this graphic.  

 

They think too much of the frozen precip will fall as sleet.

[bud2380]

Hi-Res GFS is a good hit for Iowa City and really good for Chicago.  I haven't actually looked at this hi-res GFS this year so not sure if it performs reasonable or not, but i'm doubting it since nobody talks about it.

 

 

[bud2380]

that had snow in it from a system after this weekend, here is the map through just this storm.

 

 

[FV-Mike]

Isn’t that kind of what Euro was showing? Counties bordering the WI line and north get blasted. Seems like that’s the way to go, if not slightly NW of that.

Yes, i do think QC to Madison to GB is the best spot. However I feel a lot of models struggle with defo bands. I still think it could come in stronger than what is shown. LOT mentions this in their AFD

[BMT]

would sure be nice if we could score a couple of inches friday night before the main event

[Grizzcoat]

long range RAP looking similar to HRRR-- good hit for OMA peeps into most of W CENT IA.

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc&rh=2020010921&fh=30&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

[Grizzcoat]

FTR- I don't trust HRRR and RAP past say 8-10 hours but when they both agree and with SREF and NAM products and to the trend of the GFS /EURO= I might just be getting sucked in. DON"T DO IT says a voice in the back of my head...

[Grizzcoat]

 

 

That about sums it up...at this rate, Grizz is going to get get hit when just a couple days ago he thought he was out of the game! Just teasing Grizz, love ya man! #beingreal

LOL- you never know until the fat lady sings!! I always reserved some hope with this system being on the NW fringe and tendency for this things to shift NW- esp with record warmth -- 59F here today in DSM. Again not looking to get jacked- just 2-3" with things looking more JAN like.

[Grizzcoat]

DMX speaks of NW shift and possible extensions westward of headlines-

 

Main focus then turns to a big round of forcing arriving Friday
afternoon and persisting through the evening. NAM has been by far,
the most aggressive with frontogenetical forcing by late afternoon
and evening across central Iowa. Isentropic lift is also very
impressive with widespread precipitation across central and
southern Iowa by 00Z. However, the bulk of GEFS and Euro output is
not nearly as strong with QPF across central Iowa during this
time with the bulk going into the broad band of showers and
embedded storms in Missouri and Illinois. That being said, there
is a noted northwest shift of overall QPF associated with the
Friday afternoon/evening event which does increase snowfall in
central Iowa with a bit more icing in southern Iowa as a warm nose
aloft moves into the south. Amounts near I80 have increased into
the 1-3" range with higher amounts to the southeast. In addition,
up to a tenth of an inch or so of icing occurs near the Missouri
border where soundings indicate the warmer air aloft. By later in
the evening, precipitation is forecast to end as forcing subsides
with snow and any freezing pcpn dissipating into the overnight.

The upper low and associated mid level forcing are then expected to
approach the southeast half of the state into Saturday with forcing
ramping up once again. At this point, cold air will be deep enough
to ensure that only snow falls on Saturday as the deformation zone
passes across the southeast/east during the day. Additional
accumulations are expected during this time with heaviest amounts in
the southeast portions of the forecast area. The combination of
both precipitation episodes is sufficient to warrant a watch
headline across southeast portions of the forecast area for late
tomorrow into Saturday night. Of course, should an even more
northwest track become apparent, the headlines may need some
additional westward adjustment as necessary.

[Stormhunter87]

FTR- I don't trust HRRR and RAP past say 8-10 hours but when they both agree and with SREF and NAM products and to the trend of the GFS /EURO= I might just be getting sucked in. DON"T DO IT says a voice in the back of my head...

Oh you have that voice too? Thought I was crazy.

[Grizzcoat]

For those interested here is the link to the SREF plumes page-

 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

[The Snowman]

long range RAP looking similar to HRRR-- good hit for OMA peeps into most of W CENT IA.

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc&rh=2020010921&fh=30&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

This is the content I like to see - unrealistic, but something to reminisce about when I end up getting only 1-3" in Omaha proper 

[Clinton]

RGEM through 54hr