1/10 - 1/11 Plains/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm

[Madtown]

all local Mets going 8 to 12 total Friday thru Sunday

[Tom]

18z GEFS...

 

 

[MIKEKC]

Local Mets here in KC are going with 4-8 inches.

 

Party starts here in about 24-30 hours.

[Money]

18z euro out yet?

[MIKEKC]

If we can get this to lay down a 4-8 inch snow in KC, we possibly could hold this snow pack the rest of January?

 

Whoa Baby on the 18z GFS...cold enough to maintain snow pack and multiple storms.

[Grizzcoat]

18z euro out yet?

It's exactly 6 hours before the 00Z-so it's just starting.

[Clinton]

18z Euro

[GDR]

18z Euro

Me like

[bud2380]

[Grizzcoat]

18Z EURO Kuchera

 

[Grizzcoat]

Last three runs of the EURO for mby-  (all snow in QPF)

 

00Z .18"

06Z missing

12Z .39"

18Z most recent - .53"

 

SREF and others may be on to something

[Clinton]

21z SREF

[OmahaSnowFan]

[bud2380]

00z NAM she’s a running

[CentralNebWeather]

21z SREF

I haven’t been paying too much attention to this storm as it was probably always going to be too far east for my area. This says 3-4”. Local forecasts are basically punting on this storm with only a 40% chance with virtually no accumulation. Still not expecting much of anything but it’d something if we could squeeze out a couple of inches.

[bud2380]

00z run of HRRR coming in strong with wave one still

[Clinton]

I haven’t been paying too much attention to this storm as it was probably always going to be too far east for my area. This says 3-4”. Local forecasts are basically punting on this storm with only a 40% chance with virtually no accumulation. Still not expecting much of anything but it’d something if we could squeeze out a couple of inches.

There has been a west trend today so can't rule it out yet.

[Clinton]

18iz EC and 18z Euro mean

[Clinton]

I haven’t been paying too much attention to this storm as it was probably always going to be too far east for my area. This says 3-4”. Local forecasts are basically punting on this storm with only a 40% chance with virtually no accumulation. Still not expecting much of anything but it’d something if we could squeeze out a couple of inches.

Just realized that the SREF map I posted is picking up on another wave on Sunday, sorry about that.

[CentralNebWeather]

[Grizzcoat]

Another look at SREF mean. Probably wrong and not close but it's fun posting something when the golden shovel is really close to your pad...

 

[bud2380]

NAM has a crippling ice storm for Iowa City.  1/2" of freezing rain.  God please no.  Temps in the mid to upper 20s and rain.  Ouch. 

[Clinton]

NAM has a crippling ice storm for Iowa City.  1/2" of freezing rain.  God please no.  Temps in the mid to upper 20s and rain.  Ouch. 

The 18z Euro had .90in of ice in mby.  Nothing good comes with ice 

[Money]

Nam looks a lot more strung out at hr 36 compared to 18z

[Money]

First wave drops 6-10 inches of snow from iowa into WI though

[bud2380]

HRRR wave 1 is a little colder.  Not as much ice.

 

[Grizzcoat]

Round two on the NAM  looks to hit C.IA on E.

[Grizzcoat]

Round 1 NAM-

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2020011000&fh=36&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=

[Madtown]

holy buckets rd 1!

[Money]

Round 2 is really weak

 

Doesn’t get organized for awhile

[The Snowman]

QPF around 0.5" in Omaha proper, can't complain if that ends up being all wintry precipitation.

[Hawkeye]

Wave 1 is actually looking a bit more organized than wave 2, with heavier precip.

[jaster220]

18iz EC and 18z Euro mean

 

Control 2" to 12" gradient thru the Mitt is insanely tight! Ofc, this is may be the one weekend that chasing is off the table for this guy. 

[Hawkeye]

Man, someone (or everyone) in the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City area is going to get screwed by hours of sleet while snow dumps ten or twenty miles north.

[BMT]

3km nam is strong too

[Madtown]

looks like 12" on 10:1 and 16" on kuchera

[Money]

It’s funny

 

3K is weaker with wave 1 but 2nd wave is stronger by a good 3-4 mb than 12k

[East Dubzz]

NAM is about to have a big score or look really stupid.

[Hawkeye]

3k NAM is best-case for Cedar Rapids.  It is a bit colder with wave #1, so CR remains just inside the snow area, then gets a decent track with wave #2 as well.

[Money]

2nd wave coming in real strong on 3K

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2020011000&fh=45&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=