1/10 - 1/11 Plains/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm

[BMT]

3k NAM is best-case for Cedar Rapids.  It is a bit colder with wave #1, so CR remains just inside the snow area, then gets a decent track with wave #2 as well.

CR jackpot

[Stormhunter87]

OAX for a good chunk of south eastern Nebraska 0-3 with uncertain on banding.

[BMT]

speed:

 

[bud2380]

3k NAM has almost 17" for Cedar Rapids

[East Dubzz]

Alright then lmaoooo

[Grizzcoat]

NAM -3KM  NAM- SREF mean plume = all over 10" for mby. What could go wrong? Everything.

[Money]

12K NAM for here

 

1st wave: 7-10

2nd wave: 3-6

 

3K NAM

 

1st wave: 1-3

2nd wave: 7-9

 

Ok

[BMT]

HRRR is in the same camp still.  Looks like a good defo band forming at the end of the run too.

[bud2380]

Gotta love the NAM for always starting nights off with fantasy land snow totals to get us all excited.  By midnight the Euro will be more realistic and temper enthusiasm.  LOL. 

[East Dubzz]

Gotta love the NAM for always starting nights off with fantasy land snow totals to get us all excited. By midnight the Euro will be more realistic and temper enthusiasm. LOL.

I could settle for what the 12z Euro showed.

[Hawkeye]

3k NAM has almost 17" for Cedar Rapids

 

Half of that would be a win.

 

Have to remember DVN thinks most of the wave 1 precip will fall as sleet.  If that happens, the overall snow totals would be much less.

[Hawkeye]

The new HRRR v4 (not yet operational) for wave 1.

 

[Money]

Welcome to the show Icon..

[Hawkeye]

00z ICON finally back nw and a little stronger, very similar to the GFS.

[NH4NU]

RAP continues to show a narrow band of 4-5" right along I-80 corridor (OMA/LNK) and still snowing.  

[Money]

RGEM looks weaker than NAM with wave 1

 

NAm had 1.1-1.3 qpf in IA RGEM with .5-.6

[Grizzcoat]

Various short term guidance...

 

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrwarw&p=snku_acc&rh=2020011000&fh=36&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrwnmmb&p=snku_acc&rh=2020011000&fh=36&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrwnssl&p=snku_acc&rh=2020011000&fh=36&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=

[Grizzcoat]

RGEM looks weaker than NAM with wave 1

 

NAm had 1.1-1.3 qpf in IA RGEM with .5-.6

lot more sleet and FZRA with RDPS- but it seems to have had it since it's outset.

[Madtown]

Feeling good where I sit, but that's the exact moment the rug gets pulled out from under me....worried I may get in on sleet freezing rain this pulls 60mi further nw

[Money]

Feeling good where I sit, but that's the exact moment the rug gets pulled out from under me....worried I may get in on sleet freezing rain this pulls 60mi further nw

Pretty rough trends tonight with models focusing on first wave with second wave crapping out now and weak

[Money]

RGEM with 1-2 inches of snow through hr 48 in most of WI/IA quickly turning into a nonevent with the second piece

[Hawkeye]

lot more sleet and FZRA with RDPS- but it seems to have had it since it's outset.

 

Has nothing for snow in Cedar Rapids... all sleet.  Wave 2 looks kinda weak and east, too, and the RGEM tends to be a stronger, more amped solution.

[NH4NU]

OAX just issued Winter Weather Advisories calling for 2-4" and 35mph winds

[bud2380]

RGEM also much slower, doesn't get wave 2 into CR until 6pm. 

[stratosjeff]

Feeling good where I sit, but that's the exact moment the rug gets pulled out from under me....worried I may get in on sleet freezing rain this pulls 60mi further nw

[stratosjeff]

I know the feeling, I live in Rockford...losing hope

[jaster220]

0z NAM with my parting shot of flurries late Sat night

 

 

 

[Niko]

Winds here will really start cranking up by late tomorrow I think. I hope I get no ice. Flooding could be a real issue here. I might even get thunderstorms

[Grizzcoat]

GFS more amped first wave compared to previous runs

[Clinton]

00z RGEM through hr 48

[NH4NU]

GFS coming in clutch!! Omaha and Lincoln will like!

[bud2380]

GFS also with the snow/ice line right between CR & IC.  Looks to be a sleet fest on the GFS along I80

 

[Grizzcoat]

GFS first wave through 36

 

[BMT]

Welcome aboard GFS. 4.4 first wave in CR

[bud2380]

wave 2 even further east on GFS than previous runs.  We have model mayhem 

[Money]

2nd wave gonna be weak/east

 

What a joke

[gabel23]

Looks like my area gets to be the dividing line yet again.Outside the snowstorm I had in November, I have been missed either to the north west or south east on every single storm in our state. To quote shawshank redemption... Bad luck I guess.

[Grizzcoat]

GFS also with the snow/ice line right between CR & IC.  Looks to be a sleet fest on the GFS along I80

 

SIGN ME UP!!!

[jaster220]

What might have been with decent COLD 

 

[bud2380]