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1/10 - 1/11 Plains/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm


Tom

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pretty incredible model spread the day of the storm. LOL.  Nothing is easy in Iowa.  No point to do anything but watch the radar now and hope the changeover to snow happens quickly.  

 

Yup. That has been my philosophy since I woke up this morning. Unless there was some massive change on the models, I just figured it's best to just wait until precipitation starts falling. Because even if the models are showing one thing all day, we've seen it plenty of times where it starts to change right before or even during the storm. This is just a case of seeing how things go as they begin to unfold. I am actually with Hawkeye in saying that, if I HAD to make a prediction, I would lean more towards the sleet solution, because warm air seems to win out more often than not. 

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Yup. That has been my philosophy since I woke up this morning. Unless there was some massive change on the models, I just figured it's best to just wait until precipitation starts falling. Because even if the models are showing one thing all day, we've seen it plenty of times where it starts to change right before or even during the storm. This is just a case of seeing how things go as they begin to unfold. I am actually with Hawkeye in saying that, if I HAD to make a prediction, I would lean more towards the sleet solution, because warm air seems to win out more often than not. 

 

I agree, I remember a storm a few years back that models predicted a foot of snow here, and sleet and freezing rain should have been at least 50 miles to our south.  Well the day of the storm came and it sleeted all day long.  Most sleet I've ever seen, probably about 3" and it was just solid ice, it was awful and took forever to melt.  Meanwhile Waterloo got a foot of snow out of the deal.  So, i agree warm air seems to have a way of sneaking in.  

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Canadian second wave is basically non-existant for Iowa.  Brings a lot of rain this evening with some sleet/ice mixed in and then snow to the north and almost nothing tomorrow. LOL.  I wanted to be greedy and get 8" out of this thing, but i'm feeling like 4" might even be too much to ask.  

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RPM model suggesting 3-6" for the W/NW burbs, 3" at ORD, 2" for the city...that's pretty much what I think will happen over here unless somehow we get some banding to develop or Lehs which some of the models are showing.  If I can score 3" of wetter snow, that'll be fine by me.  Actually, I'd prefer the wetter snow so that it won't compact/melt as much early next week.

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Canadian second wave is basically non-existant for Iowa.  Brings a lot of rain this evening with some sleet/ice mixed in and then snow to the north and almost nothing tomorrow. LOL.  I wanted to be greedy and get 8" out of this thing, but i'm feeling like 4" might even be too much to ask.  

 

RAP has been nw with the wave 1 snow for a while.  It's probably right.

 

Frankly, the fact that the RAP is showing wave 2 largely missing Cedar Rapids to the southeast, like the global models, suggests to me that the HRRR and NAM are wrong with their far nw track.  It's still possible Cedar Rapids could end up with very little snow.  The 6-8" being shown on the NWS map is anything but guaranteed.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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DVN's discussion/maps are odd.  They barely even mention sleet for the Cedar Rapids area.  The maps show nearly all snow tonight.  My point forecast has zero mention of sleet.  This just seems wrong.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Batten down the hatches. A strong storm system approaching North Texas and several southern states is looking more menacing and could include tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds, and flooding on Friday.

 

With temps reaching 72* this afternoon we have ave plenty of moisture from the gulf to create hail, high winds and tornados. A flash flood watch is in effect. This is such a Spring pattern.

The severe zone has expanded and is closer to the DFW area.

 

IMG_4086.JPG

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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DMX has 8-12 for CR.  Not gonna happen.

 

Why would they even put 12" on the map?  Just based on the colors, that narrow strip of orange would suggest up to maybe 9".

 

I don't think the post-storm snow totals map will look anything like that forecast map.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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DMX has 8-12 for CR.  Not gonna happen.

 

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 Bud, it is interesting that the offices said they coordinated with one another but this map would require a winter storm warning for the weather advisory counties on the North side. However, LaCrosse is still going with a winter weather advisory. It will be interesting to see if this is upgraded later in the day. 

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Seeing a few flurries already. But wow tornado warning already down in OK.

Flurries here as well. Short term models trends have not been good at all, but I guess its radar time anyway. Another underperformer?

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Flurries here as well. Short term models trends have not been good at all, but I guess its radar time anyway. Another underperformer?

I'm not sure yet. One models have a horrible time with snow bands. Second the hrrr is not matching the radar trends. While I agree that the model trends is concerning I don't think it's the end all be all at this point.
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Nice dry hole over Cedar Rapids.

Like you said, the models are nice to look at but I have this feeling it will be a nowcast event for your area and mine.  I'm banking on the SE trend and a better developed SLP to track into C IN like the Ukie/Euro/GFS have been showing.  I believe this system will get its act together later and therefore produce a decent defo band to dump some snow in a short period of time.  Too bad its going to be a late night event, even if it pulls together.  I'd feel more confident if the Euro shows this feature on today's run coming up.

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I'm not sure yet. One models have a horrible time with snow bands. Second the hrrr is not matching the radar trends. While I agree that the model trends is concerning I don't think it's the end all be all at this point.

Not putting much stock in the models at this point, this is a now cast event for us in Nebraska. I could certainly see the convection down south hindering the moisture return... which could reduce totals.

 

It’s going to come down to where the best banding sets up on a system like this.

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I’m not at all optimistic regarding the sleet/mixing line. When the majority of guidance has it sliding just north of Cedar Rapids, you just can’t ignore that. My guess for CR w/ wave 1? 2”. Where Waterloo/Vinton get 6+. These sort of coin toss situations never seem to work out in our favor. Hope I’m wrog

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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snku_acc.us_mw.png

A 50% reduction from 12z. I’m getting massive dud alarm bells from this storm.... thinking many of the WSWs are in jeopardy. Seriously when was the last locked in, full blown winter storm here where we weren’t worried about mixing or a dud right up until onset?

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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A 50% reduction from 12z. I’m getting massive dud alarm bells from this storm.... thinking many of the WSWs are in jeopardy. Seriously when was the last locked in, full blown winter storm here where we weren’t worried about mixing or a dud right up until onset?

 

It got stronger up here, though. Not sure why it changed in central Iowa, but I wouldn't get too worked up about it yet.

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