1/10 - 1/11 Plains/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm

[bud2380]

HRRR progressively lowering snow totals.  Lots of sleet this run as well as it shows .8" qpf from wave 1 for Iowa City, but only 3" of snow and less than a .1" freezing rain.

 

[Hawkeye]

The end of the latest HRRR run suggests it is sliding southeast with wave 2, which is to be expected given where most other models are.

[Tom]

12z Ukie pivots an intense defo band from E MO, N/C IL/SW MI...it may even be showing some snow into NW IN.  W MI peeps may be in for a surprise.

[westMJim]

12z Ukie pivots an intense defo band from E MO, N/C IL/SW MI...it may even be showing some snow into NW IN.  W MI peeps may be in for a surprise.

We shall see. 

[FarmerRick]

Euro just starting, will be interesting to see if it bumps up the precip for Omaha from the last run of .4"

[jaster220]

While you're eating nails, Euro wants to feed me flurries  . Best of luck to ya over there my friend. I think trends will be your friend by game time. Getting me back in the thick of SN instead of RN/Ice dominating will take a bit more lifting by the models. Let's see. I may not have to drive too far to see a legit snowstorm tho, that'd be a nice upside. Dec 28, 2015 Sleet-n-snowstorm was like that. Full-on sleeter for the 94 corridor and just 2 counties north they had a nice 4-6" snow event. 

 

Did I mention how legit snow line has refused to budge last year, falling JUST a half a county NW of Marshall?   

 

[jaster220]

12z GEFS nudged SE with the SN over in MI...

 

 

 

 

Interesting to see some heavy hits over N IL now....

 

 

 

Like you said, the models are nice to look at but I have this feeling it will be a nowcast event for your area and mine.  I'm banking on the SE trend and a better developed SLP to track into C IN like the Ukie/Euro/GFS have been showing.  I believe this system will get its act together later and therefore produce a decent defo band to dump some snow in a short period of time.  Too bad its going to be a late night event, even if it pulls together.  I'd feel more confident if the Euro shows this feature on today's run coming up.

 

 

12z Ukie pivots an intense defo band from E MO, N/C IL/SW MI...it may even be showing some snow into NW IN.  W MI peeps may be in for a surprise.

 

Whoa! Return of the 2-wave SE scenario???? 

[bud2380]

Euro is basically a dud, wow did it change a lot since the 12 and 18z yesterday.

 

[bud2380]

Euro with 1-3" in Iowa on the 2nd wave.  2-3" north of CR on the first.  Blegh. 

[Snowshoe]

My snow magnets must be defective.

 

Good luck to everyone south and east!

[james1976]

Wouldn't that suck to track this for a week only to get a couple inches while Clarion got 9" last week from that lil clipper.

[BMT]

What’s the qpf on the euro?

[bud2380]

[hlcater]

0.7” qpf with 3-4” of snow. Must be a lot of mixing going on with the euro. Yikes

[Tom]

12z Euro...snow magnet must be working...

 

 

[Stormhunter87]

That band to our south is going to be intense when it gets here.

[BMT]

i just don't get it.  DVN now just has all snow wording, even this afternoon for here in marion 

 

edit: well, they must be updating or something, wording now has wintry mix.  

Edited January 10, 2020 by BMT

[Clinton]

12z Euro...snow magnet must be working...

Good luck up there the Euro has gone crappy down here.

[Madtown]

[MIKEKC]

EURO went from a major winter storm to you can cancel the winter storm warning in KC. Barely an inch of snow with minor icing tonight.

 

 

Hope it’s wrong and that the shorter range data is right.

 

If EURO is right, KC Mets will have a lot of explaining to do. Their forecasts will be a total bust.

[GDR]

Radar looks wonderful

[jaster220]

12z Euro...snow magnet must be working...

 

Getting back to the "MEAN" maps originally shown before the NW bumps by the Ops

[bud2380]

Very light snow flurries in CR

[St Paul Storm]

Good luck everyone south and east. It’s amazing how you can track models for a week and still have no idea what’s going to happen 12 hours before an event.

[Madtown]

[mlgamer]

Good luck everyone south and east. It’s amazing how you can track models for a week and still have no idea what’s going to happen 12 hours before an event.

Unfortunately, where I live you pretty much do know what's going to happen 12 hrs before an event.....POOF! 

[bud2380]

Storm looks impressive on radar

[Bryan1117]

That band to our south is going to be intense when it gets here.

Looks like it will arrive here around 3pm, can you say PM rush hour nightmare in the Omaha metro? Glad I am off of work at 3 today.

 

With the current strong north winds, it’s going to get nasty out on the roads when the snow band arrives.

[james1976]

This thing is moving in quickly

[bud2380]

Now it’s sleeting and mixing with freezing rain in Cedar Rapids

[jaster220]

Rare summary words from my office..

 

 

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 332 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

- A major winter storm will impact Lower Michigan tonight through
Sunday.

- Sunday afternoon will be quiet and a good opportunity for
recovery. Light snow (under an inch) is possible Sunday night,
with Monday offering another great opportunity for recovery.

- The pattern will remain active with another system possibly by
midweek.

[bud2380]

This ice means business. There is a stream of freezing rain headed right for CR that looks to last awhile. It’s already getting slick. We’re 100% freezing rain I’ve got 30° in my car. Gonna be a fun ride home for me later down 380

[james1976]

This ice means business. There is a stream of freezing rain headed right for CR that looks to last awhile. It’s already getting slick. We’re 100% freezing rain I’ve got 30° in my car. Gonna be a fun ride home for me later down 380

Safe travels. People get ridic out there!

[Money]

Euro still shows 12-14 ish here between the two waves

[jaster220]

Very busy morning for me, so I'm just getting to this and wanted to grab a copy prior to the pm updates. Wish I read it earlier for the last paragraph comments...hmmm

 

* Accumulations, Zones, and Impacts:

As previously mentioned, confidence is high we will have to deal
with several zones of p-type and that everyone will undergo a
similar transition, each zone differentiated by end stage. In
general, the order of change will go from liquid rain-->freezing
rain-->sleet (ice pellets)-->snow, with impacts dependent on zone.
Even though our confidence in accumulations and zones is moderate,
shifts and accumulations are still possible as we are still ~24
hours away from the meat of the event. Additionally, confidence is
low that we will realize the full potential of ice accumulations due
to many factors including but not limited to precipitation rate,
latent heat release as liquid freezes, and effects of the heavy rain
and warm temperatures before the transition. In fact, most freezing
rain accumulation may end up only on elevated surfaces. Even so,
any such accumulation will be problematic as winds (initially
northeasterly Saturday becoming northwesterly by Sunday morning)
gust over 30 mph through the duration of the event. Here`s a
general idea of what we expect:

Northwest of a line from Whitehall to Clare, the full transition to
snow is expected to occur by sunrise. Up to one tenth of an inch of
ice and 6 to 10 inches of snow is expected (note the Winter Storm
Warning is broken up differently so the numbers may not match
exactly). Travel will be impacted with blowing snow and falling
temperatures making snow accumulations and removal on roadways
difficult.

Across central Lower Michigan (roughly along I-96), the transition
will begin by sunrise and stall at sleet. Up to one half inch of ice
and 1 to 3 inches of sleet is expected. Falling tree limbs and power
outages are likely especially if the ice accumulations are realized.
Travel will become extremely difficult as sleet has more water
content than snow making it harder to remove and inherently more
slippery. The worst travel impacts are expected in this zone.

Across the south (roughly along I-94), the transition will begin by
mid-morning and stall somewhere between freezing rain and sleet.
This is where the most freezing rain is possible, with a half inch
to three quarters of an inch of ice and 1 inch of sleet possible.
Considerable tree debris and prolonged power outages are likely
especially if the higher-end ice accumulations are realized. Travel
impacts are likely due to at least modest ice accumulation even if
road temperatures start off warm. As much as 2 to 3 inches of liquid
rain may fall before changing to a wintry mix as well, leading to
flooding of low-lying areas and roadways and rapid rises in rivers.
It`s worth noting the ECMWF ensemble shows a 100% chance of at least
2 inches of rain in this zone, which is absolutely remarkable
considering the normal January rainfall in Kalamazoo and Jackson is
1.79" and 1.49", respectively.

* One parting thought with this storm:

As with any dynamic system that includes convection, things can go
wrong, fast. One hint is the WRF-ARW which shows convective
processes shifting everything south and east, a prolonged period of
dry conditions on Saturday, and the low center passing south of the
state line (e.g. less wintry mix and heavy rain, but more snow).
It`s also possible the thermodynamic profile ends up favoring all
freezing rain, or all sleet, or a different variation than offered
above. Much like with a severe weather event, we really won`t
know the intricacy of how things will play out until, well, they
play out. With that said, we believe our forecast offers a fair
blueprint bolstered by model consistency.

 

"..Much like with a severe weather event, we really won`t

know the intricacy of how things will play out until, well, they
play out."

 

A nice write-up and effort by GRR this go-round. Nice to see them acknowledge that a dynamic and developing system can't really be "called" from 2 days out as they are know to do wrt headline decisions. Let the fun begin..

[Clinton]

12z EPS mean.  Good luck to everybody!

[mlgamer]

Currently, there is a thunderstorm just west of me that could produce pea size hail and my temp is now down to 31.6F. The dynamics with this storm are pretty impressive if nothing else...

[jaster220]

Thx Clinton...GL down there as well

 

As mentioned by my office, CAMs continue to advertise 2nd wave staying further S and E

 

Quite a combo mess shaping up per the NMM. After the +RN, it's showing approx 20 hrs of frozen stuff

 

[Stormy]

Just started sprinkling here. Finally have an interesting storm looming. These big juiced lows moving in from the sw. are my favorites, no matter what p- type!

[bud2380]

18z HRRR showing the changeover to snow quicker now in Johnson County.  around 7pm.