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1/10 - 1/11 Plains/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm


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About 2 inches of snow total here as the snowfall has pretty much ended in my backyard.   This likely qualifies as the biggest snowfall event I have seen yet this Winter- this “amazing” snow event fi

OMADOME will not be penetrated...    

ended up with an even 4.0" just W of DSM about 20 minutes. Didn't think it was going to be much over 3" but the last  band was high in ratios--- since 6pm I had 1.7" ; melted down was .10. So 17:1 and

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Euro shows significant icing.  The maps on pivotal had me worried that I'm close to the rain/snow line, but temps actually hold in the 20s throughout the entire storm, so the precip should be frozen this whole run for eastern Iowa.  But if sleet or freezing rain get mixed in, that will significantly cut down on snow totals for those on that edge.  So close but yet so far away on this one.  Hour 84 is when the precip first hits central IA and 102 when wave 2 gets going.  So no reason to get my hopes up, but i'm going to anyways.   :D

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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Yup, there's my worry...the 12z Euro showing a 987mb cutter right over the top of Chicago...

 

Yeah, never want to be in the bull's eye @ d10 d7 d5 d4

 

This model bouncing just plain ruins this hobby  :rolleyes:  :lol:  :(

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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If Euro follows Uncle Ukie, it's over for mby. You might still be in the game tho. 

 

game over for me.  I'll take plain rain over Ice.  

 

NEXT???

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Trend with all models is NW.  GFS is on it's own.  Never a good thing.  

 

Congrats N and W Peeps, as I originally figured. 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Yup, there's my worry...the 12z Euro showing a 987mb cutter right over the top of Chicago...

 

Great stuff, eh?? Could've seen this coming. Now hopefully Clinton will get why I'm hesitant to buy in, at least this year. Idk why the Ops are so retarded (meaning slow to catch-on) when their own Ensembles were well north with majority of members even yesterday's runs. Both EPS and GEFS iirc were leaning well NW

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Well, the 12z EPS came in a lot farther SE than the amped up Operational run and takes a track up from Texarkana thru S IL/C IN/SE MI....I'm waiting for the snow maps to come in but it looks like a swath of heavy SN that the Ukie laid out.  Tons of precip being advertised and a noticeable trend of a deeper, slower and amped up SLP.  

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Well, the 12z EPS came in a lot farther SE than the amped up Operational run and takes a track up from Texarkana thru S IL/C IN/SE MI....I'm waiting for the snow maps to come in but it looks like a swath of heavy SN that the Ukie laid out.  Tons of precip being advertised and a noticeable trend of a deeper, slower and amped up SLP.  

1436014825_Webp.net-gifmaker(15).thumb.g

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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1436014825_Webp.net-gifmaker(15).thumb.g

 

Weak sauce SLP that basically runs over my head and appears to be about 90% liquid??  Hard to tell from that janky incremental map

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Weak sauce SLP that basically runs over my head and appears to be about 90% liquid??  Hard to tell from that janky incremental map

Yep, I saw that.......Little more east would help. NAO/AO are not helping, I'll tell ya that amigo! Thank goodness its only Tuesday though.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Yep, I saw that.......Little more east would help. NAO/AO are not helping, I'll tell ya that amigo! Thank goodness its only Tuesday though.

 

Always nice when it's near 40F here, yet if you look at radar there's a snowstorm SE of us. La Nino doin' it's thang again. Where's that SER today?? Oh yeah, I forgot, it only rears it's ugly head in time to hose our storm chances  ;)

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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12z EPS snow mean...

 

Riding the southern 2" line right thru mby. Par for the course of this and last winter. Should be $$

 

APX playing "coy" in there pm update. They're golden but I get that they can't act like it. 

 

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)

Issued at 234 PM EST Tue Jan 7 2020

 

High impact weather potential: Another storm system is expected to

eject out of the southern plains this weekend, perhaps impacting

parts of northern Michigan with snow and wind, although rather low

confidence prevails at this time.

 

Attention through the long term forecast period revolves around this

weekend as low pressure is expected to trek from the southern plains

through the mid-MS valley into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. However,

rather low confidence prevails at this point in regards to snow

potential, how widespread/heavy it may fall - mainly hinging on the

speed/interaction of upper-level waves and eventual track of the

system. Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance depicts a myriad

of possible solutions ranging from wet/heavy snow with strong winds

to snow transitioning to rain across the bulk of the forecast area

to a complete miss with precipitation remaining off to our

southwest. Worth monitoring future trends through the end of the

week for updates as the potential is certainly there for impactful

weather.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Riding the southern 2" line right thru mby. Par for the course of this and last winter. Should be $$

 

APX playing "coy" in there pm update. Their golden but I get that they can't act like it. 

 

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)

Issued at 234 PM EST Tue Jan 7 2020

 

High impact weather potential: Another storm system is expected to

eject out of the southern plains this weekend, perhaps impacting

parts of northern Michigan with snow and wind, although rather low

confidence prevails at this time.

 

Attention through the long term forecast period revolves around this

weekend as low pressure is expected to trek from the southern plains

through the mid-MS valley into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. However,

rather low confidence prevails at this point in regards to snow

potential, how widespread/heavy it may fall - mainly hinging on the

speed/interaction of upper-level waves and eventual track of the

system. Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance depicts a myriad

of possible solutions ranging from wet/heavy snow with strong winds

to snow transitioning to rain across the bulk of the forecast area

to a complete miss with precipitation remaining off to our

southwest. Worth monitoring future trends through the end of the

week for updates as the potential is certainly there for impactful

weather.

 

You won't like GRR's write up.  Buying the Heavy Rain,  possible freezing rain and  Snow way to the north scenario.  

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Riding the southern 2" line right thru mby. Par for the course of this and last winter. Should be $$

 

APX playing "coy" in there pm update. They're golden but I get that they can't act like it. 

 

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)

Issued at 234 PM EST Tue Jan 7 2020

 

High impact weather potential: Another storm system is expected to

eject out of the southern plains this weekend, perhaps impacting

parts of northern Michigan with snow and wind, although rather low

confidence prevails at this time.

 

Attention through the long term forecast period revolves around this

weekend as low pressure is expected to trek from the southern plains

through the mid-MS valley into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. However,

rather low confidence prevails at this point in regards to snow

potential, how widespread/heavy it may fall - mainly hinging on the

speed/interaction of upper-level waves and eventual track of the

system. Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance depicts a myriad

of possible solutions ranging from wet/heavy snow with strong winds

to snow transitioning to rain across the bulk of the forecast area

to a complete miss with precipitation remaining off to our

southwest. Worth monitoring future trends through the end of the

week for updates as the potential is certainly there for impactful

weather.

NOAA going w Euro and Icon. Way too soon to even give a forecast at this range.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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You won't like GRR's write up.  Buying the Heavy Rain,  possible freezing rain and  Snow way to the north scenario.  

 

SHOCKED, TOTALLY SHOCKED. OMG! Can't believe that they'd jump on that so quickly?? (sarc)

 

APX

 

20200107 APX Storm Graphic.png

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Tom, thanks for the map. I think KC with the EURO run today gets a bunch of ice prior to the back side snows? Looks nasty on the 12z run today.

 

We’ll see how this baby trends.

 

I think for KC it depends how far the cold push is WRT overrunning and ice? Will the cold make it here in time before the slug of moisture pushes East. Will it be one piece of energy or two. A lot of questions.

 

I do like the trends today for a sizable winter storm in KC.

 

I’m a snow contractor so, I can’t think of a better weekend....winterstorm Friday/Saturday then a Chiefs victory on Sunday.

 

I’m 0-40 in January WRT the Chiefs making it to Feb. They have never done that in my entire life. I’m hoping after this January I will be 1 for 41.

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If I ever needed a 50 Mile shift south, This would be the storm.  But that seems to never happen.  

 

Today's Euro for SMI..gotcha again, Sucker! 

 

gp_cb_lucy_football.jpg

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Still plenty of time for changes.

 

LOL. For the worse? Ok. Sorry amigo, but it's all over but the ice. Since when do ALL the models trend NW only to come back to their prior position 2 or 3 days later? Answer-never happens. 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Here is what LOT is going with atm

 

Basically we lean toward a middle solution path of the GFS and EC,
or near the 12Z GEM. Somewhere in the area certainly could see a
modest to significant snow accumulation, but too much uncertainty
in the guidance paths at this distance.

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NWS KC take on the weekend storm.

 

The focus then shifts to the Friday/Saturday time period for the
next appreciable chance for widespread precipitation. There are
some aspects of the Friday/Saturday system that are medium to high
confidence and some aspects that are much lower confidence. The
higher confidence items revolve mostly around the idea that a
well organized mid level system will move through the forecast
area, bringing with it higher chances for precipitation as we go
into Friday. Also within the higher ranges of confidence is the
low and mid level temperature profile associated with this system.
Both the latest EC and GFS operational models indicate a rather
elongated N-S oriented H85 low. This may be significant because it
would indicate a pretty formidable warm nose within the H9 to H7
layer. The result would be at the very least a "warm" rain process
on Friday, switching through a wintry mix Friday night and
eventually snow on Saturday morning. As the low level and surface
cold air filters into the area, there isn`t much indication that
the low/mid level warm nose will erode as quickly, so this would
yield a period of freezing rain and/or sleet starting in the
Friday evening to Friday night time frame. As the H85 low shifts
eastward the cold air will eventually erode that warm nose, but
likely not before the surface cold air becomes entrenched. Again,
this would yield a somewhat prolonged period of wintry mix
(freezing rain and sleet) Saturday morning. This aspect of the
forecast is running a bit higher in confidence than the exit phase
of this system on Saturday. Once the cold air is in place at all
levels and the wintry mix capability is replaced with all or
mostly snow production the system will be moving out of the area.
Most operational models have been depicting a pretty narrow window
of snow production before the system departs, however, the latest
run of the GFS does seem to come in a bit more aggressive with
respect to snow production on the backside of the system, and
ECMWF (12z) has also come in a bit more aggressive with snow
production. So until there can be a bit more model consistency
will not get too excited about the prospects of a high-impact
winter system for the upcoming weekend. Despite both the GFS and
EC coming in a bit more aggressive with the snow production they
do not have much in common with the placement of the backside snow
production. So, much will need to be ironed out with respect to
the scale and location of any wintry precipitation potential for
this weekend.

Thereafter, there isn`t much to mention for impactful weather.
Long range model solutions do hint at at least some increased
activity through the middle part of the month, and signals also do
seem to have some indication of colder temperatures moving in for
the middle part of the month and immediately beyond.
 

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DVN

 

This boundary then stalls to our southeast, roughly from Missouri to
the Great Lakes as it becomes aligned under the developing southwest
flow aloft. The GFS has made a slight southeastward shift with the
axis of precipitation developing Friday into Saturday with an
overall more progressive system. The latest 12Z ECMWF has a more
organized surface low feeding off this baroclinic axis and moisture
feed, lifting northeast on a track from AR to northern IL by
Saturday night. This solution would be a favorable track for
measurable snow over eastern Iowa and northeast MO, while the GFS
would be more of a quick hitter of a wintry mix. For now, a very
low confidence forecast of rain and possible freezing rain,
changing to snow is kept over the area for late Friday into
Saturday. Forecast confidence should improve as the energy for
this system, currently well off shore is better sampled over the
next couple days.

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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Des Moines not going with op GFS:

 

At this point, models diverge significantly in the handling of the

system for later Friday into the weekend. The operational GFS is

one of the driest for the forecast area compared to the various

other GEFS members and appears to be the outlier. The operational

Euro is much more aggressive with impacts into much of central

Iowa late Friday into early Saturday. Have generally trended away

from the operational GFS and more toward the ensemble mean given

the spreads in the various models. This would indicate that snow

will overspread much of central and southern Iowa on Friday

afternoon into the evening as strong mid level forcing moves

northeast across Iowa. This forcing is maximized in the evening

with light to moderate snow across much of the forecast area

barring the northwest quarter of so. Winds will also increase as

the pressure gradient tightens producing blowing snow and helping

to reduce visibilities. The snow is expected to taper off by late

evening into the overnight. Most locations in central into

southern Iowa would expected moderate accumulations at this time.

However, given the spread in the models, the confidence remains

low in any given scenario. The Euro is also now indicating a

secondary push of precipitation/snow on Saturday across the

southeast third of the forecast area as deformation precipitation

crosses eastern Iowa. This will bear watching over the next few

cycles to see if this remains as it would change the weekend

forecast across the eastern CWA significantly.

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