1/10 - 1/11 Plains/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm

[jaster220]

Trends in the GEFS ensemble members of the SLP track now starting to show it tracking thru S IN...the HP to the north seems to be growing a little stronger.

 

"Bless You" GEFS.. 

[jaster220]

Looks like I'm in the sweet spot for Freezing rain on all the models.  Hopefully the storm overcomes the warmer air aloft.  

 

For the first wave? I think if the 2 wave option plays out, you will do ok on wave 2. I'm the one sweating the ice ain't nice issue all the way around. 

[Niko]

Man, this storm has so much moisture in mby, that if it was all snow, I'd be measuring this in ft.

[Niko]

Looks like the CMC went SE......

[Stacsh]

For the first wave? I think if the 2 wave option plays out, you will do ok on wave 2. I'm the one sweating the ice ain't nice issue all the way around. 

 

I just hope no ice.  I think a few miles N/S are going to make a difference for a lot of people.  

[jaster220]

"Bless You" GEFS.. 

 

Another look sans the busyness of the individual members. Location/strength of that HP is gonna be key as to Tom's hopes that progression of CAA could be under-modeled:

 

[Niko]

Another look sans the busyness of the individual members. Location/strength of that HP is gonna be key as to Tom's hopes that progression of CAA could be under-modeled:

 

20200108 6z GEFS_mslp_anomaly_trends fh120-h84.gif

Yep, major role on that HP and how strong it holds in. Notice that SE turn it takes on that last loop.

[Clinton]

12z CMC = ice storm for me

[Tom]

12z GEFS...

 

 

 

[bud2380]

Canadian huge ice for some areas

 

 

 

[bud2380]

Ukie blasts Chicago with a ton of snow from the 2nd wave.  Clips eastern Iowa with the first, missing Iowa City and CR to just barely to the east.  Sure hope that shifts back NW just a tad like it was showing.  Still plenty of variability in the track and what happens between wave 1 and 2.  

[hlcater]

Trends aren’t really our friend, particularly with the second wave trending ever so slightly faster. That’s the deal breaker, the speed of the second wave relative to the first. It needs to slow down or we get missed to the south and wind up with nothing.

[CentralNebWeather]

Really starting to downplay any snow around here.  Maybe 1".  I won't complain as we've had our share, but many parts of Eastern and Southeastern Nebraska that keep getting missed look to get missed again.

[Hawkeye]

With the UK mostly losing the first wave now for Iowa, this whole thing has one foot out the door.

[jaster220]

Insider's comments from LOT office..

 

While a primarily rain event is very much in the cards with a painful miss just north/northwest, it's still well within the envelope of possibility for the deformation snows to nail much of the Chicago metro at this range, particularly I-55 and northwest. As has already been mentioned, there have been important changes in the handling of the southern wave. Also, convection has been known to mess with mass fields of systems, along with the possibility of robbing some of the moisture transport. And there will be a ton of convection south of here with this system.

 

There very well could be an area of warning criteria ice somewhere in interior northern Illinois. However, as laid out in Carlaw's AFD, there are so many points of uncertainty with that aspect of forecast 3 days out. There's reason to doubt huge ice accums with very heavy precip rates forecast, and possibility convection causes more sleet. That said, with the strengthening northerly winds Friday night into Saturday, it won't take huge ice accums to cause significant issues with falling tree limbs and power outages.

[Tom]

Insider's comments from LOT office..

The 12z Ukie really develops the defo zone all the way down in OK and tracks thru most of MO (esp STL) in a NNE fashion throughout IL/SE WI/NW IN and it looks like S MI gets into the cold sector.  Let's see what the Euro shows in a bit.

 

Edit: Ukie spits out about 1.10" qpf in the defo band with temps in the 20's for Chicago and across N IL into C IL.  Heaviest band of snow looks like it sets up from Springfield/Champaign Urbana/Chicago for IL members.

[jaster220]

12z GEFS...

 

 

 

 

I noticed that despite the favorable trends of the GEFS MSLP position for the 2nd wave, it still is leaning way NW with the snow shield. Most of those don't even have much snow across SMI. Op GFS has more snow south, and the 12z Ukie looks much more favorable for both your place and mine fwiw. 

 

Edit: I guess the weaker members are snowy for SMI, it's the stronger members mostly across NMI

[jaster220]

The 12z Ukie really develops the defo zone all the way down in OK and tracks thru most of MO (esp STL) in a NNE fashion throughout IL/SE WI/NW IN and it looks like S MI gets into the cold sector.  Let's see what the Euro shows in a bit.

 

Haha, thinking and typing simultaneously about that     

[Tom]

I noticed that despite the favorable trends of the GEFS MSLP position for the 2nd wave, it still is leaning way NW with the snow shield. Most of those don't even have much snow across SMI. Op GFS has more snow south, and the 12z Ukie looks much more favorable for both your place and mine fwiw. 

 

Edit: I guess the weaker members are snowy for SMI, it's the stronger members mostly across NMI

The Ukie has been handling the ULL much better and with more consistency.  I would imagine the Euro follows suit.  Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if it amps up and tracks right over head again like yesterday's 12z run.  The positive about the HP to the north is that it is lining up almost due north of the storm which isn't allowing this storm to cut even farther NW.  Our problem with previous storms were that the HP's to our north were sliding east out ahead of the system which allowed storms to cut W/NW of here.  I don't see it being an issue this time around.

[Clinton]

12z CMC mean

[Stacsh]

Euro looks weaker and closer to GFS at 72

[jaster220]

The Ukie has been handling the ULL much better and with more consistency.  I would imagine the Euro follows suit.  Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if it amps up and tracks right over head again like yesterday's 12z run.  The positive about the HP to the north is that it is lining up almost due north of the storm which isn't allowing this storm to cut even farther NW.  Our problem with previous storms were that the HP's to our north were sliding east out ahead of the system which allowed storms to cut W/NW of here.  I don't see it being an issue this time around.

 

Glad your confidence is high from this range on that. Certainly agree and have said many times that we can't seem to get the classic High-over-Low scenario to show up for us. Perhaps we will see it this time, eh? 

 

Fwiw, WPC yesterday afternoon doubled-down on the main action staying more SE and didn't jump on the shift NW in the models (unlike a certain office I won't mention):

 

[GDR]

Is that the king caving?

[jaster220]

At Clinton

 

GEM still running NW with 12z GEFS I see.  So which models are in the NW camp vs the more SE camp (talking wave 2)?

[Hawkeye]

Woo, Euro back nw.

[bud2380]

Euro came back NW with the 2nd wave.  once again... YES PLEASE!

 

 

[Niko]

Euro makes no sense. HP to the north is too strong. It will adjust more SE later tanite or tomorrow.

[bud2380]

Euro with some impressive snow rates from 6pm to midnight Saturday.

 

 

[Hawkeye]

As I like to do, I was watching the Euro 500 mb maps come in and it was obvious it would be going back nw.  The distance between the northern and southern waves increased a bit again.... not as much as 12z yesterday, but certainly better than last night.

[bud2380]

Euro with 2" from wave 1 for IC/CR then about 6" more for wave 2.  I'd be a happy customer if that played out.  

[Clinton]

At Clinton

 

GEM still running NW with 12z GEFS I see.  So which models are in the NW camp vs the more SE camp (talking wave 2)?

The NAM and GFS are the furthest SE at the moment.

[Stacsh]

I'd split the difference.  I'm going to miss out on heavy snow by 2 counties and I'll be squarely in the Ice.  

[Tom]

12z Euro...

.

 

[Niko]

The NAM and GFS are the furthest SE at the moment.

You have to consider how the atmosphere will overall be in play during that timeframe. Euro will follow these 2 eventually. Its playing catch up. It did the same thing last time, where the GFS was the winner.

[MIKEKC]

Tom, I can’t see KC on that map. Lol

[Clinton]

Tom, I can’t see KC on that map. Lol

[bud2380]

As I like to do, I was watching the Euro 500 mb maps come in and it was obvious it would be going back nw.  The distance between the northern and southern waves increased a bit again.... not as much as 12z yesterday, but certainly better than last night.

 

Reading 500mb maps is not my forte, what specifically do you look for on these?  Do you mind posting some maps?

[jaster220]

12z Euro...

.

 

Yuck, and (sigh) 

[Tom]

Yuck, and (sigh) 

It basically followed suit to yesterdays 12z and last nights 00z run was a carbon copy of the previous days 00z run.  Isn't it weird how that works out?  

[FV-Mike]

Should be some interesting AFD's this afternoon. still like where I am at. Happy with 3-5 and still potential to be a Big one