Wxmidatlantic Posted February 16, 2020 Report Share Posted February 16, 2020 A song for Phil... https://youtu.be/2nOraM3zjck 1 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2020 18*F yesterday morning. Barely beats the 18.3*F from a month ago, for a new coldest low of the winter. Pathetic. By far the warmest “coldest low” of any winter on record except for 1878/79. Maybe. Depends on whether you account for station relocations, UHI, etc. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 Looks like maybe be a flurry at Phil's house. Inside 24 hours no hope of any major axis change. A slider indeed. Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 If the pattern holds next storm should be a cutter. I will sling back a cold one and hope for the next run. Still 30 days left. Probably get sucked up by a tornado in May. A fitting ending I suppose for a weatherman... Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 We all dread the Northern jog. Here we have the SE jog. Heaviest snow potential now from Columbia SC to Elizabeth City NC. Cancel Phil's snow flurries. 1 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 22, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2020 Pretty dry airmass (by super +AO standards) advected in yesterday behind that southern slider. Dewpoints in the single digits, lows dropping to ~ 20*F. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2020 Looks like a dynamic storm coming up from tomorrow afternoon through Thursday. Squall line with imbedded severe thunderstorms possible tomorrow evening then gradient/CAA/pressure rise gusts to ~ 40-50mph on Thursday. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted February 25, 2020 Report Share Posted February 25, 2020 Gorgeous weather here. 60's sunny and calm. Phil,......Check your messages please. Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 27, 2020 Rough night incoming out near the Shenandoah. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 27, 2020 Wall of wind coming out of the mountains. Let’s see how much mixes down..lowest few thousand feet are stable at the moment so CAA will have to scour that out. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 27, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 27, 2020 That was a decent storm. Winds ~ 45mph throughout, with plenty of vivid lightning strikes, then the precipitation flipped over to mostly graupel or hail during the second half of it. A very pulsy wind, like a sine wave. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 NW flow with pinwheeling short waves last 5 days. Results: unfrozen lakes produced 30 inches of lake effect snow in western NY state. Winds gusted to over 60mph. Along lake shores 18 ft waves breaking producing freezing spray. Ice accretion up to 1 foot. A lake effect storm indeed. Image below. There is a window of opportunity 96-132hrs for the Mid-Atlantic. I'll give it a 15% chance. Better than nothing. All depends on Southern Hudson Bay low, it's confluence, and cut off Texas low and amplification. That Sun is getting awfully bright out side my window. 1 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 29, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 There is a window of opportunity 96-132hrs for the Mid-Atlantic. I'll give it a 15% chance. Better than nothing. All depends on Southern Hudson Bay low, it's confluence, and cut off Texas low and amplification. That Sun is getting awfully bright out side my window. ce4c0aba-a45e-4b32-9900-13110c067dd3_Thumb.jpgIt’s not happening with that s/w orientation and disjointed streamflow. Even if it were cold enough that screams southern slider. Not ruling out something last minute later in March or even April but the pattern is extremely hostile for now. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 It’s not happening with that s/w orientation and disjointed streamflow. Even if it were cold enough that screams southern slider. Not ruling out something last minute later in March or even April but the pattern is extremely hostile for now. Thanks.. 1 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 That means my 85% chance of nothing will verify. We are entering an interesting time for models. The dynamics of the atmosphere will peak next 60 days. Looking at model depictions of screaming warm air advection along the front range 156 hrs is not good. 1 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted February 29, 2020 Report Share Posted February 29, 2020 Thanks.. it really about as bad as a winter as you can get if your a cold snow fan just awfull pattern on that front this winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 1, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 1, 2020 A bit nippy this morning at 22.6*F, following a blustery day yesterday with windchills in the teens/20s all day. I’m still intrigued by the seasonal transition this year, given the annular mode is still raging in its cyclonic winter state and will have to transition out of that quickly as radiative heating commences in earnest. Question is, will the final warming in the polar stratosphere be dynamic? Or will it be a slower, radiative-catabolism of the vortex structure? Could have implications not just for subseasonal pattern progression but also, in theory, MJO/static stability in the tropics, henceforth ENSO evolution? QBO also transitioning as we speak, with easterly shear downwelling to/below 30hpa. Lots of stuff to monitor. Given the above, and the climatological nature of the MJO/wavetrain seasonality under analogous boundary conditions, my projection (and my instinct) is to expect some wild gyrations in the weather pattern across the CONUS this month and especially next month. Or I could be full of it. Haha. We’ll see. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted March 3, 2020 Report Share Posted March 3, 2020 A bit nippy this morning at 22.6*F, following a blustery day yesterday with windchills in the teens/20s all day. I’m still intrigued by the seasonal transition this year, given the annular mode is still raging in its cyclonic winter state and will have to transition out of that quickly as radiative heating commences in earnest. Question is, will the final warming in the polar stratosphere be dynamic? Or will it be a slower, radiative-catabolism of the vortex structure? Could have implications not just for subseasonal pattern progression but also, in theory, MJO/static stability in the tropics, henceforth ENSO evolution? QBO also transitioning as we speak, with easterly shear downwelling to/below 30hpa. Lots of stuff to monitor. Given the above, and the climatological nature of the MJO/wavetrain seasonality under analogous boundary conditions, my projection (and my instinct) is to expect some wild gyrations in the weather pattern across the CONUS this month and especially next month. Or I could be full of it. Haha. We’ll see. Translation: Weather has been weird. That means the transition to Spring may be weird. Last night tornadoes hit downtown Nashville. Video below. By biggest fear has always been a tornado at night. Storm chasers will love this spring. For the rest of us, it doesn't look good... https://youtu.be/15Kw9AnpUmM Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted March 3, 2020 Report Share Posted March 3, 2020 Nine dead. https://youtu.be/Pa9ACnxQ_iw Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted March 3, 2020 Report Share Posted March 3, 2020 Terrible news to here.We also had 4 tornados this past feburary which is weird as well.And in the morning 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted March 3, 2020 Report Share Posted March 3, 2020 Storms to come. Let's hope they are not tornatic.. https://youtu.be/sMmTkKz60W8 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2020 DCA just gusted to 54mph. Nice dynamic front on this Super Tuesday evening. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2020 Several 60mph gusts reported out west with the next squall. Some lightning in that one as well. Have been touching 40mph intermittently here since a little bit after sundown. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2020 Not all of this will mix down, but there’s some serious wind aloft with these squalls. Warned as severe t-storms for high winds even though they’re just showers, really. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2020 68mph @ Hagerstown Airport. Rough. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2020 53mph @ Leesburg Apt. Almost no precip left with the squall but the wall of wind is continuing to roll out of the hills. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2020 Some of the wind gusts associated with the decaying squalls as they blew through. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted March 5, 2020 Report Share Posted March 5, 2020 Nashville tornadoes, two F4, one F3. Death toll 24, dozens missing. Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted March 5, 2020 Report Share Posted March 5, 2020 The snow band. Between 3 and 6 am. I am the only one to see it.... Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted March 5, 2020 Report Share Posted March 5, 2020 12z slight amplification DC to Richmond., 1 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted March 5, 2020 Report Share Posted March 5, 2020 https://youtu.be/301gtq59jGs Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 Thick, nasty smoke here today. Apparently this is why. Just gross. Had to close the windows due to the smell. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted March 10, 2020 Report Share Posted March 10, 2020 06Z GFS. Maybe a little atmospheric snow 126hrs. Who cares. Anomalies beget anomalies... Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted March 13, 2020 Report Share Posted March 13, 2020 This was a typical winter for Greenville SC. We loved those 2 and 3 foot storms from 09 till 16. Good times for sure. Let's hope us old folks get a few more years. A song for maybe late November next year. https://youtu.be/AxSarBcsKLU Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 13, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 13, 2020 Warm downsloper today. Mid-70s with frequent 35mph gusts blowing clouds of pollen around. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 14, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 14, 2020 Looks like a wall of sleet, graupel, and cold rain moving in from the NW. Was in the mid-70’s yesterday, lol. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted March 15, 2020 Report Share Posted March 15, 2020 It was remarkable. 850mb temps dropped to -3. My windshield showed a little Sain at 12Z. Low dropped to 37.8 in the hills west of Baltimore. 1 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted March 15, 2020 Report Share Posted March 15, 2020 Maybe next November. https://youtu.be/UKJNBxDCMIs Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted March 20, 2020 Report Share Posted March 20, 2020 Impressive warm surge. Dewpoints in low 60's. Temperatures 20-25 degrees above normal. Models are downplaying convection. All it takes is one cell to break the trop.. Scary. Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted March 20, 2020 Report Share Posted March 20, 2020 Looks like a nightime event. Wonderful. Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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