Phil Posted December 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 3, 2020 Smells like winter outside. 27.3°F this morning, then warmed to 54°F by mid afternoon, ahead of the cirrus deck. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 5, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2020 Pouring tonight. If only this were snow.. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 6, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Nice weather today, following yesterday’s blustery conditions. Currently sunny and mid-40s with a light NW breeze keeping things fresh. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 6, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Xmas blowtorch looking like a sure bet. Essentially everything in the system state favors that outcome. Thinking the January 1-10 period will have some potential for cold and possibly some legit storminess. Though that doesn’t necessarily mean it’ll be snow. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 Alot of outlooks had February as the coldest snowest which I was surprised giving nina.cosgrove and justin both had cold snowy febuary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 11 hours ago, weatherfan2012 said: Alot of outlooks had February as the coldest snowest which I was surprised giving nina.cosgrove and justin both had cold snowy febuary. Wouldn’t fit niña climo, though I suppose climo is just a guide, not a rule book. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted December 7, 2020 Report Share Posted December 7, 2020 4 hours ago, Phil said: Wouldn’t fit niña climo, though I suppose climo is just a guide, not a rule book. True Larry Cosgrove is going with a 1957-58 outcome appernly how about that for a gutsey call.if this ends up as a 57-58 I will be sure to ask Cosgrove for a dinner togeather .I really think we are in a late 1940s 1950s type of cycle which was a bad decade for snow cold but then the 1960s came which i why I think the late 2020s 2030s could prove interesting in that we could see a 1960s like cycle take shape with colder winters.plus interesting to which in response to adapt2030 ideas how that pans out.I know Andie follows Adapt2030 as well as Robert Filex as does Geos those I hope he ok have not seen him in in a while hope nothing has happen to him.I know he heaverly debated with Americawx forums at times. Because there pro AGW and he not so much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 First snowflakes of the season today. At long last. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted December 12, 2020 Report Share Posted December 12, 2020 I love Tony Pann and Justin Berk but I hope they are not jexkens this and Tonys snow train is really going to pull through. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 12, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2020 Going to be a close call for me on the mix line. Low level cold air damming is often underestimated by guidance, plus insolation is at its seasonal minimum, so perhaps that comes into into play on the margins. Still, you have to lean climo at this range, in which case there’s probably a relatively tight gradient in the vicinity of the fall line. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 14, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2020 NWS point and click had us at 40°F for a low tonight. Already down to 38°F. Obviously it’s not going to snow here tomorrow, but I like the trend. Wed/Wed night is a bail biter. We’re gonna be right on the line, should current projections hold. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 14, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2020 Sky has been unloading today. Just pouring 37°F rain with the occasional white missile mixing in. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted December 14, 2020 Report Share Posted December 14, 2020 Cosgrove still thinks mid january-march produces we will see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 15, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 Significant snowfall looking less likely locally. But still questionable how much low level CAD is retained during peak WAA Wednesday afternoon/early evening. Tends to hold on pretty tight so long as it’s precipitating into the inversion. But if it’s ZR you also have latent release at the surface. Headache maker for sure. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 16, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 Down to 27°F as of 12:45AM. Dewpoint 24°F. Colder than NWS forecast low, but we’ll see if that spikes up at all after lower clouds move in. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 16, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 Light snow. Instant stickage to pretty much everything. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 16, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 Legit SN+ just ahead of the sleet line. About 2.5” on the ground. Now mixing with sleet and ZR but dendrites trying to hold on. Temp 29.7°F so cooler than forecast. Unloading from the sky. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 16, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 Freezing rain and 31°F. Light glaze on trees already. Warming quickly though. We’ll see how long it lasts. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 16, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 Usually ice events are calm but the wind is elevated right now. Seems to be hastening accretion. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 Drip drip drip. Temp peaked at 34.7°F, now falling back a little. Hoping for a flip back to snow at the end. Wind has also relaxed substantially. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 Puking sleet now. Temp back down to freezing as NW winds rush in. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 Back over to light snow now. Probably won’t add up to much but it’s still nice to see. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 6-7”/hr rates on the NY/PA border for several consecutive hours. Lol insane. Reports of 2 feet of snow in 5hrs. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted December 17, 2020 Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 On 12/15/2020 at 12:49 PM, Phil said: Significant snowfall looking less likely locally. But still questionable how much low level CAD is retained during peak WAA Wednesday afternoon/early evening. Tends to hold on pretty tight so long as it’s precipitating into the inversion. But if it’s ZR you also have latent release at the surface. Headache maker for sure. Larry Cosgrove is barking about the pattern in January this morning he really liking the looks will be interesting to see if he is right.he was one of the first that warned about the mixing change over in the citys with this last storm so good call recognition by him from a few days out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 32 minutes ago, weatherfan2012 said: Larry Cosgrove is barking about the pattern in January this morning he really liking the looks will be interesting to see if he is right.he was one of the first that warned about the mixing change over in the citys with this last storm so good call recognition by him from a few days out. We’ll see! I’m still optimistic about the first half of January for cold/snow. Solid +EAMT w/ favorable MJO transit for +PNA/storminess. Even if it happens, that doesn’t mean the ingredients will come together perfectly. But the potential may be there. Second half of January probably develops the SE-ridge again. At least for a time. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 17, 2020 Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 We do not have JAYA for Monday 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 17, 2020 Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, Phil said: We’ll see! I’m still optimistic about the first half of January for cold/snow. Solid +EAMT w/ favorable MJO transit for +PNA/storminess. Even if it happens, that doesn’t mean the ingredients will come together perfectly. But the potential may be there. Second half of January probably develops the SE-ridge again. At least for a time. How much did you get from that major snowstorm on the east coast? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 17, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: How much did you get from that major snowstorm on the east coast? Not much here. A few inches followed by transition to sleet/ZR, then plain rain before flip back to snow/sleet at the end. About half of the 2.2” we got fell in 10mins under a super-band. Was just ripping dendrites. Man oh man, if only that could’ve lasted a few hours..would’ve been lit. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 17, 2020 Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 I only post maps that show snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 17, 2020 Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 We got the EURO!!! It shows a little snow at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 17, 2020 Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 O wrong forum. My b Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted December 17, 2020 Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Phil said: We’ll see! I’m still optimistic about the first half of January for cold/snow. Solid +EAMT w/ favorable MJO transit for +PNA/storminess. Even if it happens, that doesn’t mean the ingredients will come together perfectly. But the potential may be there. Second half of January probably develops the SE-ridge again. At least for a time. Yeah it will be interesting hopefully Larry is right.I am still surpised he is going cold stormy for February but maybe this nina is going to behave differently then what we are use to for a La nina or he is counting on the nina to level off weakend which is also possible.only time will tell what will be proven right in the end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted December 17, 2020 Report Share Posted December 17, 2020 11 hours ago, Phil said: 6-7”/hr rates on the NY/PA border for several consecutive hours. Lol insane. Reports of 2 feet of snow in 5hrs. Robert Filex will likey be using this storm on his site post wise. He all ready did in fact https://www.iceagenow.info/record-snowfall-more-snow-in-parts-of-northeast-than-all-last-season/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 18, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 12 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said: O wrong forum. My b Ha, ur good. It’s weather. I like weather. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 18, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 Meanwhile it just started snowing here again. Wasn’t anticipating this at all. Very light stuff that won’t add up to much but still nice to see. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 22, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 This Christmas Eve cold front is going to be a behemoth. Warm sectored with 60°F+ surface temps and a 90mph LLJ, potentially with weak CAPE/low topped convection to mix it down before a 30-35°F temp drop and flash freeze. Wind chills drop to the low teens by Christmas morning. Usually we don’t mix winds very well under WAA in the warm sector, but the soil is so saturated from snowmelt that just a few big gusts from that direction will probably bring trees down. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted December 25, 2020 Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Dt is Spinning he needs to stop hyping storms until he is sure the pattern is set posting in twitter and facebook that the pattern look the best since 96 and 2010 is how bad information gets out in the open. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2020 Two squall lines blew through yesterday. Temp soared to 60°F under WAA with 1.5-2” of rain across the region. The inversion prevented significant mixing of the LLJ here, but places to the E/NE from the Chesapeake Bay to the Philly/NJ area got hammered with 60-70mph gusts. Cold front blasted through overnight, and it was snowing by mid-morning with 30-35mph NW winds. Finally feels like Christmas outside. Temps should drop into the teens/low 20s tonight. Coldest airmass of the season so far. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 26, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 26, 2020 Nippy out there. Temp 24°F, dewpoint 8°F, windchill somewhere around 10°F. Meanwhile, chills down to -20°F in the mountains: Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 On 12/25/2020 at 10:22 PM, Phil said: Nippy out there. Temp 24°F, dewpoint 8°F, windchill somewhere around 10°F. Meanwhile, chills down to -20°F in the mountains: Dave Tolleris should have never came out with his 96 2010 post a few days ago.it stuff like that that causes the melt downs from people.He needs to wait and see if the pattern is working out before he pulls the hype train. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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