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2020 Weather Mid Atlantic/Gulf Coast.


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Looks like a violent frontal passage Sunday evening, though. I’m genuinely surprised LWX doesn’t mention it in the HWO..lots of wind aloft and mixing should be efficient near the boundary (and just behind it).

Probably short duration, but I think 50-55mph will be easily achieved in the favored locations (Ridges and areas near/north of the Potomac River).

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Hey! How you folks been over here? I haven't dropped by and visited in a few. Hope you guys are well. Think winter is going to really get cranking here pretty quick.

Good lord.      

I would like to introduce a precip type that most of us have observed, but has not been categorized. I call it "sain." It is hard to see unless you are driving. When sain hits the windshield it splats

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The wind is starting to roar outside. We’re usually protected from S/SE winds by trees/hills but these are breaking through.

SPC issued slight risk for the squall line this evening. Should be some brief but rough gusts from the W/SW.

Temp up to 64°F.

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That was pretty wild. Temp drop from 71 to 59 in 1min with a wall of 40mph winds, followed by a noticeably stronger 50-55mph push. Lasted maybe 15 minutes. 

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Last night’s front recorded by my PWS. Some obstruction of wind by trees, but otherwise reflective of the progression.

The sensor also takes some time to respond to temp/humidity changes, but the temp drop was extremely fast using the psychro-dyne thermometer. Lost 11 degrees almost instantly, then dropped another 5 degrees over several additional minutes, before compressional heating/overturning by dry advection spiked temps a bit.

Decent frontal passage, all things considered.

image.thumb.jpeg.ee0cb3afab56eec11eb3cc75d870ef84.jpeg

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Another breezy day today. Peak gust 47mph on my PWS, mixed down in showers which made it over the mountains. Was probably stronger in reality, away from tree obstruction.

image.thumb.jpeg.89a3deba43eccab0b18068c72a3b4654.jpeg

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Had some lightning/thunder last night with the WAA precip. Now a beautiful day with temps approaching 70°F.

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Mid-60s with 1.5” of rain/t-storms yesterday.

Mid-40s with snow/slush flurries and gusty NW winds today.

I like variability. 🙂

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Smells like winter outside.

27.3°F this morning, then warmed to 54°F by mid afternoon, ahead of the cirrus deck.

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Nice weather today, following yesterday’s blustery conditions.

Currently sunny and mid-40s with a light NW breeze keeping things fresh. 

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Xmas blowtorch looking like a sure bet. Essentially everything in the system state favors that outcome.

Thinking the January 1-10 period will have some potential for cold and possibly some legit storminess. Though that doesn’t necessarily mean it’ll be snow.

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11 hours ago, weatherfan2012 said:

Alot of outlooks had February as the coldest snowest which I was surprised giving nina.cosgrove and justin both had cold snowy febuary.

Wouldn’t fit niña climo, though I suppose climo is just a guide, not a rule book.

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4 hours ago, Phil said:

Wouldn’t fit niña climo, though I suppose climo is just a guide, not a rule book.

True Larry Cosgrove is going with a 1957-58 outcome appernly how about that for a gutsey call.if this ends up as a 57-58 I will be sure to ask Cosgrove for a dinner togeather :lol: .I really think we are in a late 1940s 1950s type of cycle which was a bad decade  for snow cold but then the 1960s came which i why I think the late 2020s 2030s could prove interesting in that we could see a 1960s like cycle take shape with colder winters.plus interesting to which in response to adapt2030 ideas how that pans out.I know Andie follows Adapt2030 as well as Robert Filex as does Geos those I hope he ok have not seen him in in a while hope nothing has happen to him.I know he heaverly debated with Americawx forums at times. Because there pro AGW and he not so much.

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Going to be a close call for me on the mix line. Low level cold air damming is often underestimated by guidance, plus insolation is at its seasonal minimum, so perhaps that comes into into play on the margins.

Still, you have to lean climo at this range, in which case there’s probably a relatively tight gradient in the vicinity of the fall line.

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NWS point and click had us at 40°F for a low tonight. Already down to 38°F. Obviously it’s not going to snow here tomorrow, but I like the trend. 🌭 

Wed/Wed night is a bail biter. We’re gonna be right on the line, should current projections hold.

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Sky has been unloading today. Just pouring 37°F rain with the occasional white missile mixing in.

image.thumb.gif.37e307bb40ef0851a5558ee484cbba3d.gif

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Significant snowfall looking less likely locally. But still questionable how much low level CAD is retained during peak WAA Wednesday afternoon/early evening. Tends to hold on pretty tight so long as it’s precipitating into the inversion. But if it’s ZR you also have latent release at the surface.

Headache maker for sure. 

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Down to 27°F as of 12:45AM. Dewpoint 24°F. Colder than NWS forecast low, but we’ll see if that spikes up at all after lower clouds move in.

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Legit SN+ just ahead of the sleet line. About 2.5” on the ground. Now mixing with sleet and ZR but dendrites trying to hold on. Temp 29.7°F so cooler than forecast.

Unloading from the sky.

image.thumb.png.ac8a2a28e4da679ed7e0e3ae41d14fa0.png

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Freezing rain and 31°F. Light glaze on trees already.

Warming quickly though. We’ll see how long it lasts.

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Usually ice events are calm but the wind is elevated right now. Seems to be hastening accretion.

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Drip drip drip.

Temp peaked at 34.7°F, now falling back a little. Hoping for a flip back to snow at the end. Wind has also relaxed substantially.

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6-7”/hr rates on the NY/PA border for several consecutive hours. Lol insane.

Reports of 2 feet of snow in 5hrs.

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On 12/15/2020 at 12:49 PM, Phil said:

Significant snowfall looking less likely locally. But still questionable how much low level CAD is retained during peak WAA Wednesday afternoon/early evening. Tends to hold on pretty tight so long as it’s precipitating into the inversion. But if it’s ZR you also have latent release at the surface.

Headache maker for sure. 

Larry Cosgrove is barking about the pattern in January  this morning he really liking the looks will be interesting to see if he is right.he was one of the first that warned about the mixing change over in the citys with this last storm so good call recognition by him from a few days out.

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32 minutes ago, weatherfan2012 said:

Larry Cosgrove is barking about the pattern in January  this morning he really liking the looks will be interesting to see if he is right.he was one of the first that warned about the mixing change over in the citys with this last storm so good call recognition by him from a few days out.

We’ll see! I’m still optimistic about the first half of January for cold/snow. Solid +EAMT w/ favorable MJO transit for +PNA/storminess. Even if it happens, that doesn’t mean the ingredients will come together perfectly. But the potential may be there.

Second half of January probably develops the SE-ridge again. At least for a time.

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

We’ll see! I’m still optimistic about the first half of January for cold/snow. Solid +EAMT w/ favorable MJO transit for +PNA/storminess. Even if it happens, that doesn’t mean the ingredients will come together perfectly. But the potential may be there.

Second half of January probably develops the SE-ridge again. At least for a time.

How much did you get from that major snowstorm on the east coast?

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7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

How much did you get from that major snowstorm on the east coast?

Not much here. A few inches followed by transition to sleet/ZR, then plain rain before flip back to snow/sleet at the end.

About half of the 2.2” we got fell in 10mins under a super-band. Was just ripping dendrites. Man oh man, if only that could’ve lasted a few hours..would’ve been lit.

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

We’ll see! I’m still optimistic about the first half of January for cold/snow. Solid +EAMT w/ favorable MJO transit for +PNA/storminess. Even if it happens, that doesn’t mean the ingredients will come together perfectly. But the potential may be there.

Second half of January probably develops the SE-ridge again. At least for a time.

Yeah it will be interesting hopefully Larry is right.I am still surpised he is going cold stormy for February but maybe this nina is going to behave differently then what we are use to for a La nina or he is counting on the nina to level off weakend which is also possible.only time will tell what will be proven right in the end.

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11 hours ago, Phil said:

6-7”/hr rates on the NY/PA border for several consecutive hours. Lol insane.

Reports of 2 feet of snow in 5hrs.

Robert Filex will likey be using this storm on his site post wise.  He all ready did in fact https://www.iceagenow.info/record-snowfall-more-snow-in-parts-of-northeast-than-all-last-season/

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12 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

O wrong forum. My b 

Ha, ur good. It’s weather. I like weather. 

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Meanwhile it just started snowing here again. Wasn’t anticipating this at all. Very light stuff that won’t add up to much but still nice to see. ☃️

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This Christmas Eve cold front is going to be a behemoth. Warm sectored with 60°F+ surface temps and a 90mph LLJ, potentially with weak CAPE/low topped convection to mix it down before a 30-35°F temp drop and flash freeze. Wind chills drop to the low teens by Christmas morning.

Usually we don’t mix winds very well under WAA in the warm sector, but the soil is so saturated from snowmelt that just a few big gusts from that direction will probably bring trees down.

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Two squall lines blew through yesterday. Temp soared to 60°F under WAA with 1.5-2” of rain across the region.

The inversion prevented significant mixing of the LLJ here, but places to the E/NE from the Chesapeake Bay to the Philly/NJ area got hammered with 60-70mph gusts.

Cold front blasted through overnight, and it was snowing by mid-morning with 30-35mph NW winds. Finally feels like Christmas outside. 🎄

Temps should drop into the teens/low 20s tonight. Coldest airmass of the season so far. 

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Nippy out there. Temp 24°F, dewpoint 8°F, windchill somewhere around 10°F.

Meanwhile, chills down to -20°F in the mountains:

image.jpeg

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On 12/25/2020 at 10:22 PM, Phil said:

Nippy out there. Temp 24°F, dewpoint 8°F, windchill somewhere around 10°F.

Meanwhile, chills down to -20°F in the mountains:

image.jpeg

Dave Tolleris should have never came out with his 96 2010 post a few days ago.it stuff like that that causes the melt downs from people.He needs to wait and see if the pattern is working out before he pulls the hype train.

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