Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[snow_wizard]

Not sure why the other thread got locked.

[Guest LaPineLurker]

Ya. What happened?

[snow_wizard]

I almost wonder if we got hacked.  The forum acted really weird for a bit.

[Requiem]

Hmm...weird. Anyways, hoping that both Seattle and Portland do well!

[Weiner Warrior]

I had to put everyone on lock down. The non-snow event and talk of spring was getting out of control

[snow_wizard]

At any rate...

 

I noticed a big flaw in the ECMWF.  Monday evening it has Bellinham at 14 degrees while Seattle is just around freezing with northerly surface pressure gradients and winds.  That will not happen.  If Bellingham is really that cold and winds are blowing down the Sound Seattle would be much colder.

[HighlandExperience]

Not sure why the other thread got locked.

 

Not sure but sure hope the 00z shows good & health CZ over King County. 

[Guest LaPineLurker]

The impending snowstorm locked it up.

[Jesse]

Not sure why the other thread got locked.

iFred works in mysterious ways.

 

Could have been a botched attempt to perma-ban Tim.

[snow_wizard]

I could kick myself for not thinking more about the Bellingham to Seattle connection in these things.  I've been so focused on the big picture that I totally forgot to take it down to a more focused level when looking at the question of cold.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Currently 43F.  Going to be a +2.2F departure which will actually bring our avg down from the +6.1F it's currently at.

 

Now 16 straight days without a negative temp departure.  I feel like that's somewhat uncommon.

 

Probly several more in the pipe down this way as we will be too far south to get in on any action.  I expect us to get to 40F every day for the remainder of the cold season.

[snow_wizard]

iFred works in mysterious ways.

 

Could have been a botched attempt to perma-ban Tim.

 

The thread was getting big and bogged down anyway.  Just as well.

[snow_wizard]

Currently 43F.  Going to be a +2.2F departure which will actually bring our avg down from the +6.1F it's currently at.

 

Now 16 straight days without a negative temp departure.  I feel like that's somewhat uncommon.

 

Probly several more in the pipe down this way as we will be too far south to get in on any action.  I expect us to get to 40F every day for the remainder of the cold season.

 

We have fared a lot better up here.  Sounds awful.

[wxmet]

Great c-zone setup on the NAM 00z starts up north shifts down to Seattle maintaining intensity.

[Guest LaPineLurker]

Looks like the front is moving in faster than modeled. Maybe a shift in the next 24-36 hours coming?

[TT-SEA]

iFred works in mysterious ways.

 

Could have been a botched attempt to perma-ban Tim.

Jesse should be perma-banned. Spends most of time obsessing about other members.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Did a db cleanup for a future forum merge. I guess it locked an active thread during the merge

 

Thanks for all you do to keep this forum running!

[GHweatherChris]

Overperformance with snow on the table now!

[GHweatherChris]

Did a db cleanup for a future forum merge. I guess it locked an active thread during the merge

Doucche Bag Cleanup?

[HighlandExperience]

00z 3km NAM through 8PM tomorrow...

 

This is a little further south than where the 18z had it at the same time.

 

looks like it is right over U District and NorthGate. Would be nice to see that continue dropping south.

[TT-SEA]

 

Take it to PMs, ladies.

I don't constantly bring up his name. I never do actually.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

I could kick myself for not thinking more about the Bellingham to Seattle connection in these things.  I've been so focused on the big picture that I totally forgot to take it down to a more focused level when looking at the question of cold.

 

Yes, but Seattle doesn’t always get a share of the arctic goodies that Whatcom County gets.

[HighlandExperience]

00z 3K NAM appears to drop the CZ south until it hits northern Pierce and than fizzles out. I'm not sure though. 

[MossMan]

00z 3km NAM through 8PM tomorrow...

 

This is a little further south than where the 18z had it at the same time.

Goes to show you how things keep changing. Now shows my old place getting more snow than me. Might have to just wait until the first flakes fly!

[Perturbed Member]

We have fared a lot better up here.  Sounds awful.

 

Rooting for you guys to all get a couple inches of snow up there. Hopefully the CZ and the arctic front offers some pleasant surprises.

[Requiem]

Rooting for you guys to all get a couple inches of snow up there. Hopefully the CZ and the arctic front offers some pleasant surprises.

 

Feeling a little better about our chances too!

[Blizzard777]

Did a db cleanup for a future forum merge. I guess it locked an active thread during the merge

Reset.....all ahead winter mode!

[Randyc321]

I haven't seen any mention of GFS MOS guidance so I thought I would post some locales.

(Notice the sharp temp diff between Kelso and Olympia)  (Also, Bremerton is colder than at Olympia hours earlier)

[TacomaWaWx]

42 here in Tacoma. 0.03" of rain today. Been breezy this afternoon and evening...gusting 35-40mph out of the SW. Funny that the nws was predicting windy conditions yesterday and it's actually a lot breezier today than yesterday.

[snow_wizard]

00z 3km NAM through 8PM tomorrow...

 

This is a little further south than where the 18z had it at the same time.

 

Looking better.

[GHweatherChris]

I think I should see 0-15" of this coming week!

[TacomaWaWx]

Per 00z NAM..

CZ starts off the Strait around 2PM and makes its way to the King/Sno border around 5PM. It intensifies there until it starts dropping south again around 11PM, albeit in a weakened form, and fizzles in Pierce around 7AM.

Seems like a reasonable progression to me, if we can get the north wind going. Monitoring the Fraser outflow gradient will be one of the keys for tomorrow.

Seems like none of the models have the details figured out and it's a little less than 24 hours out.

[Deweydog]

New thread, same shitty models!

[Guest LaPineLurker]

Temps running a good 4-6 degrees colder over here as opposed to last night. Upper levels are most likely colder. Bodes well for spots 500-1000'for Sunday night over there I would think.

[snow_wizard]

Yes, but Seattle doesn’t always get a share of the arctic goodies that Whatcom County gets.

 

That's why I clarified the surface winds will be northerly.  A direct connection to the cold pool.

[bainbridgekid]

Seems like none of the models have the details figured out and it's a little less than 24 hours out.

I'm not sure if we'll ever get to the point where models can nail down the exact location and strength of small scale features like the CZ.

 

Large scale synoptic storms are are a completely different animal.

[TacomaWaWx]

I'm not sure if we'll ever get to the point where models can nail down the exact location and strength of small scale features like the CZ.

Large scale synoptic storms are are a completely different animal.

more than just the c-zone...the Arctic outflow. Seems like there's not a real consensus on how quickly the cold air will arrive. Euro especially Seems delayed. Seems like the euro has a much different idea of how its going to play out versus the gfs or the other models...the c-zone will probably never be able to be 100% accurately modeled though you are right about that.

[Anti Marine Layer]

233 pages for the 1st topic

[TigerWoodsLibido]

We have fared a lot better up here. Sounds awful.

Yep. We call it fallspring since we never have sub-freezing highs anymore. We also almost never have any January snow. I think Jan 2017 is the only one this decade.

[Guest LaPineLurker]

What is the c-zone?

[Jesse]

Some healthy looking showers moving onshore. Down to 43, DP 35.

 

Cascades are gonna get walloped tonight.

[bainbridgekid]

Interesting Seattle Zone Forecast for tomorrow night:

 

Sunday Night

Breezy. Rain at times in the evening. Snow in the evening, then a chance of snow after midnight. Snow level near sea level. Snow accumulation of 1 to 5 inches. Lows near 30. Southwest wind 15 to 25 mph becoming northwest after midnight.

[snow_wizard]

more than just the c-zone...the Arctic outflow. Seems like there's not a real consensus on how quickly the cold air will arrive. Euro especially Seems delayed. Seems like the euro has a much different idea of how its going to play out versus the gfs or the other models...the c-zone will probably never be able to be 100% accurately modeled though you are right about that.

 

I can see it.  100 years in the future weather models have been perfected and are always right except the bloody c-zone!

[snow_wizard]

What is the c-zone?

 

The Puget Sound convergence zone.  SW winds come around the south end of the Olympic Mountains and NW winds come around the north end of the Olympics and meet over the Central Puget Sound.  There are dozens of variations depending on many factors.

[snow_wizard]

The NAM (FWIW) shows a classic sliding c-zone tomorrow night.  Everett to Tacoma gets snow.

[Blizzard777]

Just another animation of tomorrow CZ setting up  between 1pm--4pm

Looking forward to see how this develops along with game action. I’m back home in my nest for whatever falls from the sky!

[snow_wizard]

Currently -26 in Fort Nelson and -2 in Prince George.  -54 at one station in the southern Yukon.  Nice numbers and will get better.

[Requiem]

NAM is way north with the feature after the Monday low-- buries Olympia and areas around there. Buried Portland last run. Certainly will move around next few runs, but worth watching out for.

[MossMan]

What is the c-zone?

You used to live right in the heart of it...

[TT-SEA]

Pretty easy to see why the NAM thinks the CZ will slide south so easily. Nice northerly flow down the Sound by Sunday night. Euro doesn't even start outflow until around this time.

 

Here's the link to monitor the Fraser gradient tomorrow for anyone interested.

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link_pdiff.shtml?choice=KBLI+CYWL

 

And great reason to discount anything it shows.