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Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion


snow_wizard

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Interesting Seattle Zone Forecast for tomorrow night:

 

Sunday Night

Breezy. Rain at times in the evening. Snow in the evening, then a chance of snow after midnight. Snow level near sea level. Snow accumulation of 1 to 5 inches. Lows near 30. Southwest wind 15 to 25 mph becoming northwest after midnight.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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more than just the c-zone...the Arctic outflow. Seems like there's not a real consensus on how quickly the cold air will arrive. Euro especially Seems delayed. Seems like the euro has a much different idea of how its going to play out versus the gfs or the other models...the c-zone will probably never be able to be 100% accurately modeled though you are right about that.

 

I can see it.  100 years in the future weather models have been perfected and are always right except the bloody c-zone!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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What is the c-zone?

 

The Puget Sound convergence zone.  SW winds come around the south end of the Olympic Mountains and NW winds come around the north end of the Olympics and meet over the Central Puget Sound.  There are dozens of variations depending on many factors.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The NAM (FWIW) shows a classic sliding c-zone tomorrow night.  Everett to Tacoma gets snow.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Currently -26 in Fort Nelson and -2 in Prince George.  -54 at one station in the southern Yukon.  Nice numbers and will get better.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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NAM is way north with the feature after the Monday low-- buries Olympia and areas around there. Buried Portland last run. Certainly will move around next few runs, but worth watching out for.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Pretty easy to see why the NAM thinks the CZ will slide south so easily. Nice northerly flow down the Sound by Sunday night. Euro doesn't even start outflow until around this time.

 

Here's the link to monitor the Fraser gradient tomorrow for anyone interested.

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link_pdiff.shtml?choice=KBLI+CYWL

 

And great reason to discount anything it shows.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Currently -26 in Fort Nelson and -2 in Prince George.  -54 at one station in the southern Yukon.  Nice numbers and will get better.

Would be awesome if that airmass was getting pushed down here a little more effectively. But...at least it still stands to give many of us snow.

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NAM is way north with the feature after the Monday low-- buries Olympia and areas around there. Buried Portland last run. Certainly will move around next few runs, but worth watching out for.

Would be an interesting little guy . . .

 

namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_fh69-84.gif

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Would be an interesting little guy . . .

 

attachicon.gifnamconus_ref_frzn_nwus_fh69-84.gif

 

I think it could be (at least I thought so before this run), Portland's biggest chance to score a little snow (in the lowest elevations). We'll see, feeling more dubious but the NAM isn't exactly the most accurate...

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Doubt that happens in Texas. Especially where I was.

if you hadn't given yourself away yet you have now. You just said you did work in the Marysville area maybe last night or a couple nights ago im pretty sure I could find the post on the old thread since it's locked .

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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NAM is just way to aggressive with the cold air and its push south. It is a known bias the model has. It shows 516 thickness getting to about SLE on Tuesday. It also has the Monday low down near the CA border, when the EURO had it about 150 miles north. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I never bought into the 15+ inch madness-- but I'm hoping for 2-5 inches in our general area (I assume we live pretty close by).

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Do I post in Part 1, or Part II? Do I wait for Part III? I'm more confused than a retarded virgin in a whorehouse!

 

00z GFS in 17 minutes! Root for the low Wednesday-Thursday to stay south of PDX! Envision the Gorton's Fisherman using a magic lasso(presumably made out of fish sticks) pulling the low towards Newport or even Yachats. C'MON!!!!

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Guest LaPineLurker

if you hadn't given yourself away yet you have now. You just said you did work in the Marysville area maybe last night or a couple nights ago im pretty sure I could find the post on the old thread since it's locked .

I am from Brownsville. I'm not sure what this outing stuff is? I'm just here for weather talk.

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Guest LaPineLurker

What's going on here? How can you be so sure this guy is a returning member? And what on earth did he do to earn such disdain on here?

Beats me but it is pretty ridiculous.

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00Z ICON not on board with the arctic blast or snow through at least Tuesday. But tomorrow is a long way off yet. Plenty of time for things to change.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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What's going on here? How can you be so sure this guy is a returning member? And what on earth did he do to earn such disdain on here?

It’s DomeBuster. And he did a lot to earn it.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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00Z ICON not on board with the arctic blast or snow through at least Tuesday. But tomorrow is a long way off yet. Plenty of time for things to change.

Rain for everyone! ICON says so.
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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