Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[Deweydog]

[TT-SEA]

Color me impressed. The 18z GFS not only doesn't go toward the ECMWF it's actually colder than the previous few GFS runs. 510 thickness line much further south.

It did shift north. The 00Z will be much more telling. If the 18Z GFS was showing a sunny day in July just 4 days away and EPS mean showed rain... I would not be too hopeful.

[TacomaWaWx]

First c-zone sliding east...won't be long before the next one appears.

[TT-SEA]

Looks snowy. But I’ll be skeptical if we don’t get decent snow tonight

One has nothing to do with the other. We could get no snow tonight and be buried on Thursday.

[Deweydog]

500mb tells the story. The energy with the shortwave de-amplifies as it approach the coast and subsequently the surface reflection weakens as well.

Yeah you can see why the modeling leans that way but it’s still a pretty unlikely scenario.

[IceKing]

What part of Marysville are you located?

 

A mile West of Cedarcrest Gold Course

[El_Nina]

Getting noticeably colder

[snow_wizard]

Looks snowy. But I’ll be skeptical if we don’t get decent snow tonight

 

The interesting thing about the 12z Euro is it was worse from the very start.  Tonight's event, how cold it gets, how robust of a northerly gradient we have tomorrow evening, the mid week low, etc.  If the thing tonight goes well it will make me feel a lot better.

[TeacherLori]

Newbie here - been lurking for about a week. Possibly seeing some snow in Lynnwood, but I can't really commit because I don't want to jinx it.

 

(Total snow fanatic here! I can't get enough of it! So happy to have found this community - thanks Jake!)

[Chewbacca Defense]

Getting wet snow now, the occasional big fluffy flake in the mix

[OysterPrintout]

Band just moved through downtown pdx. Hail/heavy rain had some snow VERY briefly mixed in. 

[TT-SEA]

Newbie here - been lurking for about a week. Possibly seeing some snow in Lynnwood, but I can't really commit because I don't want to jinx it.

 

(Total snow fanatic here! I can't get enough of it! So happy to have found this community - thanks Jake!)

We need to clean up our act!

 

Welcome.

[snowbustcity]

34 degrees and heavy mix in N.E. Seattle. Accumulating on grass and cars

[TT-SEA]

34 degrees and heavy mix in N.E. Seattle. Accumulating on grass and cars

Your reality is defying your user name!

[TacomaWaWx]

34 degrees and heavy mix in N.E. Seattle. Accumulating on grass and cars

looks like the next c-zone is trying to take aim directly at seattle.

[bainbridgekid]

looks like the next c-zone is trying to take aim directly at seattle.

I think this one will dissipate and a new one will form North of Everett in North Snohomish/South Skagit County.

[TT-SEA]

I think this one will dissipate and a new one will form North of Everett in North Snohomish/South Skagit County.

I agree.

 

I don't see anything taking aim at Seattle right now.

[Cloud]

My sister in Mill Creek said it started snowing 10 mins ago and it’s sticking.

[Skagit Weather]

It has dropped below 40F here (after a high of 45F). Who knows, maybe tomorrow will be below average 

[TacomaWaWx]

I think this one will dissipate and a new one will form North of Everett in North Snohomish/South Skagit County.

looked like some light radar returns off the NE Olympics were indicating it continuing over Seattle still but wouldn't surprise me if it went to the Snohomish Skagit line either. Not likely the c-zone will hit me tonight anyways lol.

[The Swamp]

it's beautiful and sunny with light snow flakes coming down in the swamp

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Tim's getting blasted tonight. Heard it here first.

[seattleweatherguy]

Snow in bothell sticking on cement now

[TT-SEA]

Starting to be able to see the WRF is wrong now.

 

Here is what it showed from 1-4 p.m.

 

Should be dry in Bothell and dumping snow here.   Neither are happening.

 

[snowbustcity]

Coming down hard.

 

33 degrees.

trim.731FFC80-9B04-4314-9B59-C61970527A5B.MOV

[Blizzard777]

Trees be swaying down here!

42*

32 dp

 

attached video....only way I know how if you want to see fir trees move feeding the CZ

trim.810F2C84-9C43-46D6-8CDE-8E9876A63293.MOV

[jcmcgaffey]

Winter Storm Watch upgraded to a Warning for EPSL. A little surprised they didn't downgrade to a WWA. Calling for 2-4 inches instead of 2-6.

Edit: Looks like they did downgrade for the I-5 corridor.

Ya just downgraded to advisory here. That’s too bad and the upcoming week not looking as good.

[bainbridgekid]

Sticking snow in Lake City in North Seattle.

 

[Blizzard777]

To close for comfort 

power outages increasing down here

Federal Way Costco.....not a good day for an outage!

[Requiem]

Huh, maybe the 18Z wasn't that bad.

[Deweydog]

Huh, maybe the 18Z wasn't that bad.

We’ll know by Thursday.

[Perturbed Member]

Yeah 18z GFS is not what we wanted to see. Significantly less snow than the 12z. At this point an inch or two on either Monday or Wednesday is looking like the realistic upper bound for this in PDX. Whatever falls will be gone fairly soon in the southerly flow after.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty much cut back on totals everywhere with the latest graphic.

 

Monroe was 4-6 inches this morning, now 1-2.

Everett was 3-4 now less than 1.

Mt. Vernon 1-2 now less than 1.

Seattle 2-3 now less than 1.

 

But hey, look, North Bend was the only place that totals went up! Was 3-4 inches now 4-6.

 

It's not right. Elevation confusion there. Happens all the time out here on those maps.

[MossMan]

Ya just downgraded to advisory here. That’s too bad and the upcoming week not looking as good.

You missed the 18z Dewey?

[Parksvillewx]

North wind been picking up here the last hour. 20mph gusts so far. Been sitting at 35F most of the day, DP's starting to drop.

[bainbridgekid]

Pretty much cut back on totals everywhere with the latest graphic.

 

Monroe was 4-6 inches this morning, now 1-2.

Everett was 3-4 now less than 1.

Mt. Vernon 1-2 now less than 1.

Seattle 2-3 now less than 1.

 

But hey, look, North Bend was the only place that totals went up! Was 3-4 inches now 4-6.

 

Makes no sense to me.

 

I'm not saying this map will be wrong, but I haven't seen anything happen to warrent changing the forecast that dramatically.

[Requiem]

Yeah 18z GFS is not what we wanted to see. Significantly less snow than the 12z. At this point an inch or two on either Monday or Wednesday is looking like the realistic upper bound for this in PDX. Whatever falls will be gone fairly soon in the southerly flow after.

 

I think Wednesday still has the potential to drop 2-5 inches. Strong systems bring lots of surprises, to say the least. It's basically an unchanged run, hopefully the weirdly deviatory EURO will compromise for once.

[Deweydog]

I think Wednesday still has the potential to drop 2-5 inches. Strong systems bring lots of surprises, to say the least. It's basically an unchanged run, hopefully the weirdly deviatory EURO will compromise for once.

The Euro is by no means an outlier. None of the models are at this point because it’s been handled pretty poorly so far but if anything the GFS is more outlierish.

[MossMan]

Makes no sense to me.

 

I'm not saying this map will be wrong, but I haven't seen anything happen to warrent changing the forecast that dramatically.

Different shift. Must be a more conservative shift working.

[Farmboy]

Agassiz reporting NE wind of 32mph gusting to 43 with a temp of 29 at 2PM.

That doesn't sound like something that's just going to get stuck in Bellingham...