SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 This type of linear thinking is silly. The system’s response to any external forcing (whether it be solar forcing or something else) is probably state dependent. IE: The same forcing can trigger a *completely different* response depending on the system state at the time. There is a heavy, resonant, fluid-inertial component to the system. The warming trend that began in the 1600s is a result of a multitude of factors, solar forcing being just one of them. It’s a very dynamic, convoluted process..in fact the upper oceans/lower troposphere “warming” have often (historically) been a symptom of the system shedding heat/priming itself to do so. This is both true in the shorter term (see El Niño) and in much longer term oscillations of similar dynamic structure. Would be nice to see global temps tick down at least one year. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 Per the observation map... mid 50s now from SEA through Covington/Maple Valley to Snoqualmie and North Bend. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 Per the 12Z ECMWF... tomorrow, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday all look just as warm as today in the Seattle area and EPSL and adjacent foothills. That is 5 out of 10 days (including today) with highs in the low to mid 50s. The other days are mostly in the upper 40s. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 Would be nice to see global temps tick down at least one year.Just a few cold seasons would be nice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 Per the 12Z ECMWF... tomorrow, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday all look just as warm as today in the Seattle area and EPSL and adjacent foothills. That is 5 out of 10 days (including today) with highs in the low to mid 50s. The other days are mostly in the upper 40s.It’s almost like we’re entering a fairly mild pattern for late January. Between this revelation and the previous one regarding snow melt this is well on its way to be a Sunday to remember. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 It’s almost like we’re in a fairly mild pattern for late January. Between this revelation and the previous one regarding snow melt this is well on its way to be a Sunday to remember.ECMWF has been trending warmer. When I pointed out today being warm a few days ago... it looked like a one shot deal at that time. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 So how's it looking like the 2010's affected the averages? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 Jesse is the eeyore of the forum. Literally always wishing for rain. Never forget. Even if you delete your post, I'll still see it. Thrilling. I thought afterwards that its not worth pointing that out again. Thanks for re-posting it. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 So how's it looking like the 2010's affected the averages? The 10s were probably pretty in line with the previous two decades, at least in the winter, but losing the 80s will push everything up. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 I can’t wait for the next round of rain for days on end in North Bend. To top it off would be a soggy foggy damp and cold spring there too. Sheesh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 I can’t wait for the next round of rain for days on end in North Bend. To top it off would be a soggy foggy damp and cold spring there too. SheeshIt's been very wet. Sheesh is right. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 Man, you'd think Tim murdered a bunch of babies or something. Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 Man, you'd think Tim murdered a bunch of babies or something.It's been about as gloomy as it gets for the last month and a half. Seattle has not had a sunny day since November. I sort of enjoy a couple days without precipitation and a little sun. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 The 10s were probably pretty in line with the previous two decades, at least in the winter, but losing the 80s will push everything up. At OLM the 2010s were significantly warmer than the 2000s. Every month was at least a little bit warmer. Jan: +0.9 over 2000sFeb: +0.3Mar: +0.9Apr: +1.0May: +1.1Jun: +0.6Jul: +0.4Aug: +2.1Sep: +1.3Oct: +0.8Nov: +0.2Dec: +0.6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 At OLM the 2010s were significantly warmer than the 2000s. Every month was at least a little bit warmer. Jan: +0.9 over 2000sFeb: +0.3Mar: +0.9Apr: +1.0May: +1.1Jun: +0.6Jul: +0.4Aug: +2.1Sep: +1.3Oct: +0.8Nov: +0.2Dec: +0.6So the teens are added and the 80s have been dropped already? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 Rob must be pretty happy right now... looks like the Chiefs are in control. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 So the teens are added and the 80s have been dropped already? These are the actual raw averages of the 2000s compared to the 2010s. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 So the teens are added and the 80s have been dropped already? 30 year averages work from the 1 year through the end of the 0 year. So the next running average will be 1991-2020. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 Remember way back when the snow fall maps used to look like this in January? Those were the days! 2 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 Snoqualmie Pass is still at 30 while its almost 25 degrees warmer just to the west in North Bend. Nice to see them avoiding the warmth up there. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 Negative departures should be a little easier a year from now, which is nice. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 55 degrees here, it was so nice to golf in short sleeves today!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 30 year averages work from the 1 year through the end of the 0 year. So the next running average will be 1991-2020.That's what I thought. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest LaPineLurker Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 Century drive up to Bachelor has clear and dry pavement. First time I've seen that in a while. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 Century drive up to Bachelor has clear and dry pavement. First time I've seen that in a while.Isn’t your license suspended? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 Remember way back when the snow fall maps used to look like this in January? Those were the days! IMG_0031.pngThat map verified for Vancouver island 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 Century drive up to Bachelor has clear and dry pavement. First time I've seen that in a while. Lots of dry pavement between Bachelor and Brownsville, TX. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 Up to 54. Let’s hit 70! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest LaPineLurker Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 Isn’t your license suspended???? Not sure what that means but you can look on tripcheck as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 Up to 54. Let’s hit 70!Pics??? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 Hit 53 here today. Down to 50 with filtered sunshine. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 I got up to 58 today! Spring like! 1 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 Would be nice to see global temps tick down at least one year.Well, they’re warmer because system is losing more heat to space, all else being equal. In La Niña, for example, the troposphere cools because the more solar radiation/heat is being transported to the deeper oceans. In El Niño, the opposite is true (less heat is transported down into the oceans) hence the heating of the atmosphere/upper oceans and increase in OLWR to space. Just takes a relatively modest change to the ocean/atmosphere circulation to induce all of this. Of course, ENSO is mere a short term example of variability in systemic ocean/atmosphere circulation with vast impacts on climate and the entire structure of the planetary heat budget. There are much longer term examples of this as well, which are “politically incorrect” to discuss in this day and age. But the evidence is overwhelming. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 Pics??? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 The idea that the global temperature anomaly can vary in excess of 1.5C-2C within an 18 month span thanks to ENSO (see the 1998-2000 swing) but that somehow these swings in heat flow/budgeting don’t happen over longer intervals via structurally analogous conduits is just bats**t stupid. It’s the willful defiance of logic and reality. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 ???Not sure what that means but you can look on tripcheck as well.Looks like you're a little out of your lane... 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 Nice enough to have the sunroof open today! 1 Quote (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest LaPineLurker Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 Looks like you're a little out of your lane...Snapchat-553976556.jpgThat kind of looks like the Delorean. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 19, 2020 Report Share Posted January 19, 2020 That kind of looks like the Delorean. They sell those in Culver? 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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