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Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion


snow_wizard

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This type of linear thinking is silly. The system’s response to any external forcing (whether it be solar forcing or something else) is probably state dependent. IE: The same forcing can trigger a *completely different* response depending on the system state at the time.

 

There is a heavy, resonant, fluid-inertial component to the system. The warming trend that began in the 1600s is a result of a multitude of factors, solar forcing being just one of them. It’s a very dynamic, convoluted process..in fact the upper oceans/lower troposphere “warming” have often (historically) been a symptom of the system shedding heat/priming itself to do so. This is both true in the shorter term (see El Niño) and in much longer term oscillations of similar dynamic structure.

 

Would be nice to see global temps tick down at least one year. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Per the 12Z ECMWF... tomorrow, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday all look just as warm as today in the Seattle area and EPSL and adjacent foothills.

 

That is 5 out of 10 days (including today) with highs in the low to mid 50s.   The other days are mostly in the upper 40s.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Per the 12Z ECMWF... tomorrow, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday all look just as warm as today in the Seattle area and EPSL and adjacent foothills.

 

That is 5 out of 10 days (including today) with highs in the low to mid 50s. The other days are mostly in the upper 40s.

It’s almost like we’re entering a fairly mild pattern for late January.

 

Between this revelation and the previous one regarding snow melt this is well on its way to be a Sunday to remember.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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It’s almost like we’re in a fairly mild pattern for late January.

 

Between this revelation and the previous one regarding snow melt this is well on its way to be a Sunday to remember.

ECMWF has been trending warmer. When I pointed out today being warm a few days ago... it looked like a one shot deal at that time.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Jesse is the eeyore of the forum. Literally always wishing for rain.  :)

 

Never forget. Even if you delete your post, I'll still see it.

 

Thrilling.  

 

I thought afterwards that its not worth pointing that out again.   Thanks for re-posting it.    :rolleyes:

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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So how's it looking like the 2010's affected the averages?

 

The 10s were probably pretty in line with the previous two decades, at least in the winter, but losing the 80s will push everything up. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I can’t wait for the next round of rain for days on end in North Bend. To top it off would be a soggy foggy damp and cold spring there too. Sheesh

It's been very wet.

 

Sheesh is right.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Man, you'd think Tim murdered a bunch of babies or something.

It's been about as gloomy as it gets for the last month and a half. Seattle has not had a sunny day since November.

 

I sort of enjoy a couple days without precipitation and a little sun.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The 10s were probably pretty in line with the previous two decades, at least in the winter, but losing the 80s will push everything up. 

 

At OLM the 2010s were significantly warmer than the 2000s. Every month was at least a little bit warmer.

 

Jan: +0.9 over 2000s

Feb: +0.3

Mar: +0.9

Apr: +1.0

May: +1.1

Jun: +0.6

Jul: +0.4

Aug: +2.1

Sep: +1.3

Oct: +0.8

Nov: +0.2

Dec: +0.6

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At OLM the 2010s were significantly warmer than the 2000s. Every month was at least a little bit warmer.

 

Jan: +0.9 over 2000s

Feb: +0.3

Mar: +0.9

Apr: +1.0

May: +1.1

Jun: +0.6

Jul: +0.4

Aug: +2.1

Sep: +1.3

Oct: +0.8

Nov: +0.2

Dec: +0.6

So the teens are added and the 80s have been dropped already?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Hit 53 here today. Down to 50 with filtered sunshine. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Would be nice to see global temps tick down at least one year.

Well, they’re warmer because system is losing more heat to space, all else being equal. In La Niña, for example, the troposphere cools because the more solar radiation/heat is being transported to the deeper oceans. In El Niño, the opposite is true (less heat is transported down into the oceans) hence the heating of the atmosphere/upper oceans and increase in OLWR to space. Just takes a relatively modest change to the ocean/atmosphere circulation to induce all of this.

 

Of course, ENSO is mere a short term example of variability in systemic ocean/atmosphere circulation with vast impacts on climate and the entire structure of the planetary heat budget. There are much longer term examples of this as well, which are “politically incorrect” to discuss in this day and age. But the evidence is overwhelming.

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The idea that the global temperature anomaly can vary in excess of 1.5C-2C within an 18 month span thanks to ENSO (see the 1998-2000 swing) but that somehow these swings in heat flow/budgeting don’t happen over longer intervals via structurally analogous conduits is just bats**t stupid. It’s the willful defiance of logic and reality.

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That kind of looks like the Delorean.

 

They sell those in Culver?

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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