Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[Cloud]

At least I had 1/4" of snow on November 30th, and then on January 17th? I think I had just under 1" of snow. Briefly fun. Growing up I can remember quite a few Winters where we could only manage a rain/snow mix or nothing at all.

Welcome to the sub-1” club!

[Phil]

After the last 3 winters it was probably inevitable we would see this level of dud. In fact it was essentially what I predicted. In the back of my mind however, I was hoping we paid our dues last December and January. It happens. Would you rate this one worse than 2014-15 and 2002-03 if it plays out at this pace? It would have to be close.

Misery loves company...it’s been equally awful out here. Have yet to total 3” of snow this winter. Coldest low is a pathetic 18.3*F. Even 2016/17 and 2011/12 saw single digit lows at some point. So this is horrific even by our measly weak sauce standards.

[Phil]

[umadbro]

I haven't seen a snowfall of more than 3 or so inches since February 2014. Quit crying guys.

[Timmy Supercell]

If my brother was a member on this site he might actually brag that he hasn't had a legit snowstorm in over a decade. 

 

Pretty sure Wilsonville had under 3" in 2014 and in 2017.

 

We have opposite interests, so he'll never sign up for a weather forum.

[Phil]

The "low solar = big blocking theory" has taken a big low blow.

Remember 2007/08? Low solar winters can easily get sucked into +EPO under particular sets of boundary conditions even if the tendency is towards increased polar blocking (esp w/ -QBO/easterlies at/below 40mb).

 

Again, the linear 1-to-1 correlations never work.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

This is my fifth Winter since moving to Snohomish County and so far I'd rate it as the second best. Clearly behind last Winter and just ahead of 16-17. 10" of snow in 4 days with almost no melting so I'm definitely not going to complain.

 

That’s the thing about this winter. Once you get north of Seattle, it’s improved dramatically for snow-lovers. I didn’t get as much snow as you did but I did get a sub-20˚F high temperature, and a rare fall of squeaky-cold powder snow out of it. As such, no complaints here.

 

And the further north you get, the more anomalously cold it was, to the point that the BC interior really did get a top-tier arctic outbreak earlier this month.

 

Ultimately, there’s nothing that matters so much as what the weather is doing in your own backyard, and this winter has really sucked for snow-lovers in the Willamette Valley.

[Phil]

Well....it does correlate to blockier winters, if you take away all the non-blocky ones and then fail to account for the other half of the equation.

 

And with hindsight that cold in October was definitely a bad omen this go around. Usually seems to be a sign that we're either going to see something amazing or we're going to see something horrid. No in between.

Every autumn I keep telling you guys that October doesn’t mean s**t and I’m attacked each time. It’s a myth concocted by those with no understanding of statistics and the unstable fluidity of real-world physical relationships.

 

As for solar, I disagree. To deny the dynamic relationship between the sun and the NAM/blocking (modulated through QBO/antecedent structures) is to deny the vast majority of published literature on the topic. There’s overwhelming evidence of these relationships. But they’re complex and multidimensional.

[BLI snowman]

Alaska vortex/+EPO patterns tend to focus warmth over the continents, which spikes the global temperature especially when in conjunction with a +NAM/super PV. So, no surprise there.

 

Didn’t you say you were happy about the +EPO and seeing Alaska cold? Kinda weird since it hurts you guys more than anyone else, but alas ‍♂

 

Yes, as I mentioned (and you seemed to ignore), Alaska has been nothing but a sea of warmth for the better part of six years. Nice to see them cold again, no matter what the pattern.

[BLI snowman]

I haven't seen a snowfall of more than 3 or so inches since February 2014. Quit crying guys.

 

 

We did pretty well here locally in 2016-17 and 2017-18. You picked the wrong year to move here.

[Phil]

Yes, as I mentioned (and you seemed to ignore), Alaska has been nothing but a sea of warmth for the better part of six years. Nice to see them cold again, no matter what the pattern.

Even if it screws you sideways? You’re an empath.

 

I could care less if they roast. They torched massively during the LIA and ahead of/during many of the coldest periods globally. No big deal. “Warm” in AK is still pretty darn cold.

[bainbridgekid]

Even if it screws you sideways? You’re an empath.

 

I could care less if they roast. They torched in the LIA and ahead of/during many of the coldest periods globally. No big deal.

Isn't there a lot of evidence that Siberia was ice free during the ice age?

 

Crazy to think there was mile thick ice here while mammoths we're munching on grass in Siberia.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If my brother was a member on this site he might actually brag that he hasn't had a legit snowstorm in over a decade. 

 

Pretty sure Wilsonville had under 3" in 2014 and in 2017.

 

We have opposite interests, so he'll never sign up for a weather forum.

 

I cannot imagine Willsonville had less than 3" in February 2014. 

 

Wilsonville may have been a bit south on 1/10/17 and a bit north on 12/14/16 and 1/7/17. Though I bet they got 3" during at least one of those events. 

[BLI snowman]

Every autumn I keep telling you guys that October doesn’t mean s**t and I’m attacked each time. It’s a myth concocted by those with no understanding of statistics and the unstable fluidity of real-world physical relationships.

 

As for solar, I disagree. To deny the dynamic relationship between the sun and the NAM/blocking (modulated through QBO/antecedent structures) is to deny the vast majority of published literature on the topic. There’s overwhelming evidence of these relationships. But they’re complex and multidimensional.

 

 

Seriously, the mere existence of a winter like 1978-79 is probably enough to showcase the fact that solar isn't really a chief factor in anything, at least on a short term basis.

 

I encourage you to research that winter's weather and revel in its amazing glory. And all its blocking. And its super duper high sunspot count. It was exquisite and orgasmic and electrifying and all of our climates are better for having experienced it.

[TT-SEA]

Even if it screws you sideways? You’re an empath.

 

I could care less if they roast. They torched massively during the LIA and ahead of/during many of the coldest periods globally. No big deal. “Warm” in AK is still pretty darn cold.

 

Could 'not' care less.   

 

And I like the way you think.

[GHweatherChris]

Nice balanced weather day, dry morning and golf with the better half and didn't start raining until we left for Olympia for some appointments this afternoon!

 

22.3" of rain MTD now.

[Phil]

Isn't there a lot of evidence that Siberia was ice free during the ice age?

 

Crazy to think there was mile thick ice here while mammoths we're munching on grass in Siberia.

Yep! Parts of Siberia and Alaska were ice free, while most of BC/N-WA (and areas as far south as present-day Iowa/Illinois) were buried under 2000-3000ft+ of ice.

 

That long wave AK/GOA ridge pattern (and -NAO even more so) historically has tended manifested during cooling periods while the Pacific jet becomes suppressed. It’s not a stretch to imagine how those areas ended up ice free.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Seriously, the mere existence of a winter like 1978-79 is probably enough to showcase the fact that solar isn't really a chief factor in anything, at least on a short term basis.

 

I encourage you to research that winter's weather and revel in its amazing glory. And all its blocking. And its super duper high sunspot count. It was exquisite and orgasmic and electrifying and all of our climates are better for having experienced it.

 

Probably the last "old school" January we had here in the PNW, though the following January was not bad either. And it was nationwide. Something we definitely cannot seem to pull off anymore. Salem had about a -10 departure on the month. Bartlesville, my old town here in Oklahoma had a -12 departure. The east froze their a** of in February.

[Timmy Supercell]

I cannot imagine Willsonville had less than 3" in February 2014. 

 

Wilsonville may have been a bit south on 1/10/17 and a bit north on 12/14/16 and 1/7/17. Though I bet they got 3" during at least one of those events. 

 

Put it this way, nothing in that area came remotely close to Dec 2008 snow when both of us lived in Hillsboro. lol

 

He called Jan 2017 nothing special.

[BLI snowman]

Even if it screws you sideways? You’re an empath.

 

I could care less if they roast. They torched massively during the LIA and ahead of/during many of the coldest periods globally. No big deal. “Warm” in AK is still pretty darn cold.

 

 

Nice to know you care, then.

[Omegaraptor]

Yep! Parts of Siberia and Alaska were ice free, while most of BC/N-WA (and areas as far south as present-day Iowa/Illinois) were buried under 2000-3000ft+ of ice.

That long wave AK/GOA ridge pattern (and -NAO even more so) historically has tended manifested during cooling periods while the Pacific jet becomes suppressed. It’s not a stretch to imagine how those areas ended up ice free.

The west is the coldest during cold periods and the warmest during warm periods. As you said once California was like SE AK but parts of Florida weren’t that much cooler than today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

67/31 here in Tulsa today. Just checked. Tulsa is running a +5.2 departure on the month with a 52/32 split. Nothing like the absolutely insane torch of January 2006 where they put up a 61/36 average on the month and had 6 70+ highs. 

[Phil]

Seriously, the mere existence of a winter like 1978-79 is probably enough to showcase the fact that solar isn't really a chief factor in anything, at least on a short term basis.

 

I encourage you to research that winter's weather and revel in its amazing glory. And all its blocking. And its super duper high sunspot count. It was exquisite and orgasmic and electrifying and all of our climates are better for having experienced it.

*High solar* in tandem with +QBO/neutral/-ENSO is a very strong conduit to blocking as well. I know all about that winter. A modern day analog to it would be 2013/14.

 

That doesn’t mean high solar winters are as blocky as low solar winters in the long run (when accounting for multidecadal variability of boundary conditions driving the teleconnections).

 

Low solar winters have more conduits to blocking than high solar winters. Both have conduits to failure.

[TacomaWaWx]

Pretty rainy in Tacoma this evening...0.38” today....7.85” for January. Nws says a chance of thunderstorms maybe tonight.

[TT-SEA]

Nice balanced weather day, dry morning and golf with the better half and didn't start raining until we left for Olympia for some appointments this afternoon!

 

22.3" of rain MTD now.

 

 

It was a decent 'wet' day... it was sunny all morning here and partly sunny into the early afternoon and the rain did not start here until just about dusk.    Its amazing to think that we are normally gifted about 12 or 13 days in January with no rain at all.  

[MossMan]

I haven't seen a snowfall of more than 3 or so inches since February 2014. Quit crying guys.

Iwouldbemadaswellbro.

[BLI snowman]

Probably the last "old school" January we had here in the PNW, though the following January was not bad either. And it was nationwide. Something we definitely cannot seem to pull off anymore. Salem had about a -10 departure on the month. Bartlesville, my old town here in Oklahoma had a -12 departure. The east froze their a** of in February.

 

That winter was absolutely frigid in Europe and Asia, too.

 

High solar.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That winter was absolutely frigid in Europe and Asia, too.

 

High solar.

 

I am with you. I do not think solar makes a huge year in and year out difference. If we were in an extended period (years/decades) then maybe so. 

[MossMan]

So now we need to root for high solar!

 

And a raging Niño!

[TacomaWaWx]

At least I had 1/4" of snow on November 30th, and then on January 17th? I think I had just under 1" of snow. Briefly fun. Growing up I can remember quite a few Winters where we could only manage a rain/snow mix or nothing at all.

We had no measurable snowfall here in 04-05, 09-10, 12-13 and 15-16. Only 1/2” in 14-15. I’m just glad my house managed 1.5” this year. Some winters just don’t produce but this winter isn’t even over yet. Still a 6 week window of opportunity and based on the last 15 years February is known to produce.

[Requiem]

Some heavy rain pushing into PDX...

[BLI snowman]

*High solar* in tandem with +QBO/neutral/-ENSO is a very strong conduit to blocking as well. I know all about that winter. A modern day analog to it would be 2013/14.

 

That doesn’t mean high solar winters are as blocky as low solar winters in the long run (when accounting for multidecadal variability of boundary conditions driving the teleconnections).

 

Low solar winters have more conduits to blocking than high solar winters. Both have conduits to failure.

 

 

Just checked and 1892-93 had high solar as well. Amazing winter, perhaps the best on record for the Northern Hemisphere.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just checked and 1892-93 had high solar as well. Amazing winter, perhaps the best on record for the Northern Hemisphere.

 

How about 1992-93? 

[Timmy Supercell]

How about 92-93? 

 

And that was exactly 100 years later... 

 

2092-2093? 

[Phil]

The west is the coldest during cold periods and the warmest during warm periods. As you said once California was like SE AK but parts of Florida weren’t that much cooler than today.

I think it depends where you are latitude wise?

 

As for FL (IIRC) South/Central FL was similar temperature-wise during the late glacial maximum. But oddly enough during glacial inception (the drop into the ice age before the ice sheets grew large) it was much colder than today. Which is completely a** backwards vs what you’d expect with massive ice sheets to the north. I’ll have to dig into the literature since I forget the exact timeframes but it’s bizarre.

 

Hard to explain that without some type of North Atlantic Ridge/-NAO going into the ice age. Since a vortex there would correlate to the inverse of all the patterns the proxies depict during that crucial 120-115kyr window.

[BLI snowman]

How about 1992-93? 

 

Coming off a fairly decent solar max in 1989-90 and was still a bit high. 1990-91, proud owner of our last megablast, was as well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Radar looks pretty active this evening. Nice to see a WWA up for the Cascades too. 

[James Jones]

*High solar* in tandem with +QBO/neutral/-ENSO is a very strong conduit to blocking as well. I know all about that winter. A modern day analog to it would be 2013/14.

 

That doesn’t mean high solar winters are as blocky as low solar winters in the long run (when accounting for multidecadal variability of boundary conditions driving the teleconnections).

 

Low solar winters have more conduits to blocking than high solar winters. Both have conduits to failure.

 

What mechanism is there that could cause any meaningful difference in atmospheric blocking? The difference between solar minimum and solar max is absolutely trivial in terms of total solar irradiance at about .1%.

[bainbridgekid]

I think it depends where you are latitude wise?

 

As for FL (IIRC) South/Central FL was similar temperature-wise during the late glacial maximum. But oddly enough during glacial inception (the drop into the ice age before the ice sheets grew large) it was much colder than today. Which is completely a** backwards vs what you’d expect with massive ice sheets to the north. I’ll have to dig into the literature since I forget the exact timeframes but it’s bizarre.

 

Hard to explain that without some type of North Atlantic Ridge/-NAO going into the ice age. Since a vortex there would correlate to the inverse of all the patterns the proxies depict during that crucial 120-115kyr window.

I've always wondered what the Summer climate was like around here during the peak of the ice age. Hard not to basically picture Antarctica with 5,000 foot thick ice but I know it's much more complicated than that.

[TacomaWaWx]

This is the snowfall for Tacoma over the last 15 years...some duds but most winters have had snowfall.

04-05-X 09-10-X 14-15-0.5” 19-20-1.5”

05-06-3” 10-11-12” 15-16-X

06-07-5” 11-12-11” 16-17-8”

07-08-7” 12-13-X 17-18-5.5”

08-09-18” 13-14-5” 18-19-23.5”

If we get measurable snowfall next year...it’ll be 5 years in a row with measurable snowfall. Really not a bad run the last 15 years here in north Tacoma.