Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[Requiem]

Burned out over earlier this month. We’ll see if this one bodes well for Oregon.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty nice day of model riding.  Pretty much everything looks way better than 24 hours ago.  The snowstorm on the 18z would be epic for the Central and South Sound as the Weatherbell maps showed 1 to 2 feet pretty generally.  Even the more believable range is looking pretty darn good with two solid cold shots by day 10.  Perhaps the biggest surprise of the day was the incredible improvement on the EPS.  You can really see it in the teleconnection forecasts with both PNA and EPO going solidly minus.  At this time it appears the possible cold pattern will be sharper than the one earlier this month as the - EPO kicks in adding more of a continental component.

 

We also have some really great analogs showing up on the CPC.  I can hardly believe it has consistently been showing Jan 26 / 27 1972!  To date that is my all time favorite snowstorm.  I still clearly remember that one.  The EPSL had widespread 12" to 18" depths and the snow was followed by several days of clear and cold weather.

[snow_wizard]

Let us hope and pray the 0z runs looks as good as today's 12z ones.  The agreement between the GFS, ECMWF, GFS ensemble, and EPS was remarkable through day 10.

[seattleweatherguy]

Pretty nice day of model riding.  Pretty much everything looks way better than 24 hours ago.  The snowstorm on the 18z would be epic for the Central and South Sound as the Weatherbell maps showed 1 to 2 feet pretty generally.  Even the more believable range is looking pretty darn good with two solid cold shots by day 10.  Perhaps the biggest surprise of the day was the incredible improvement on the EPS.  You can really see it in the teleconnection forecasts with both PNA and EPO going solidly minus.  At this time it appears the possible cold pattern will be sharper than the one earlier this month as the - EPO kicks in adding more of a continental component.

 

We also have some really great analogs showing up on the CPC.  I can hardly believe it has consistently been showing Jan 26 / 27 1972!  To date that is my all time favorite snowstorm.  I still clearly remember that one.  The EPSL had widespread 12" to 18" depths and the snow was followed by several days of clear and cold weather.

 

Excellent hopefully this sat night into sunday we can get a warning shot of an inch at least before the major action occurs mid month

[snow_wizard]

You couldn't ask for a better MJO forecast.  It is forecast to slowly meander through octants 4 and 5 over the next couple of weeks.  We have been incredibly lucky getting the right ingredients during the month of February as of late.  On another note...the 30 day SOI average just went positive for the first time in months today.  Maybe the CFS is onto something showing a Nina developing this year.

[bainbridgekid]

Going on 12 hours without a new Seattle AFD.

 

Clearly this is BIG. 

[snow_wizard]

Excellent hopefully this sat night into sunday we can get a warning shot of an inch at least before the major action occurs mid month

 

Most models show a little bit on Sunday.

[TT-SEA]

It's easier to say that when you live at 1,000 feet.

 

I'm sure they wouldn't be heartbroken over missing a few inches of wet snow, but to miss something epic that gets talked about for years would be pretty rough.

 

I'm very glad the snow I got a couple weeks ago didn't pull a Dewey and hit over MLK weekend because I would have been in San Diego. Would have been difficult to enjoy the trip down there knowing I was missing 10 inches of snow.

 

 

Yeah... I can understand the issue with missing an epic event that is talked about for years.  

 

I need to support Randy and Snowmizer and hope that does not happen.    Although it would be hilarious to watch the Snoqualmie Valley School district squirm as they try to schedule additional days around the 4th of July holiday.   Keep closing school every time there is any snow on the roads at all.  Good luck with that!   

[Front Ranger]

LOL  

 

 

LOL

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

LOL

LOL

[weather_fan]

Going on 12 hours without a new Seattle AFD.

 

Clearly this is BIG. 

what is AFD?

[MossMan]

Yeah... I can understand the issue with missing an epic event that is talked about for years.

 

I need to support Randy and Snowmizer and hope that does not happen. Although it would be hilarious to watch the Snoqualmie Valley School district squirm as they try to schedule additional days around the 4th of July holiday. Keep closing school every time there is any snow on the roads at all. Good luck with that!

Yes...Yes you do!!

 

In other news it’s down to 37 degrees and clear. Of course it clears out at night so we don’t even get to see 10min of sunshine.

[High Desert Mat?]

Low solar, teleconnections, no afd, models at 12 days out, Dewey is banned, what could go wrong??

[MossMan]

what is AFD?

The NWS area forecast discussion. They update it 4 times a day.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?new&prod=XXXAFDSEW&wfo=sew

[ItBurnsOregon]

Things are coming together. February is the new November.

[ItBurnsOregon]

Think snow

[Bryant]

Low solar, teleconnections, no afd, models at 12 days out, Dewey is banned, what could go wrong??

How the hell did Dewey get banned?! Lol

[umadbro]

Things are coming together. February is the new November.

Your conference call with your NWS source tell you this?

[MossMan]

Azz Fukking Dinosaurs.

You are late for your NWS conference call. Kevin Martin should be part of it this time. Enjoy!

[MossMan]

How the hell did Dewey get banned?! Lol

He got a timeout for his normal “we need to kill Tim” post, someone reported it this time it sounded like...Probably Someone newer that doesn’t understand Matt in all of his glory. He is no longer banned but I believe he is now protesting the suspension and is refusing to come back.

[ItBurnsOregon]

Dame is on fire the last 4 games.

 

Meanwhile it feels like spring here in Burns. V day is going to be epic.

[TT-SEA]

Meanwhile... the GFS is coming out way warmer.

[High Desert Mat?]

Where does itburn is the question.

[Requiem]

Wow, I know it was like 200+ hours out lol but it’s dead and gone this run.

[Omegaraptor]

Where does itburn is the question.

In a certain town located in the southern part of Jefferson County, OR.

[Phil]

Gorgeous afternoon!!

 

20200128_160134.jpg

20200128_160137.jpg

That could pass for a summer evening out here.

 

So green! #TimFilter

[Christensen87]

Meanwhile... the GFS is coming out way warmer.

A bit warmer, but still OK. More cold coming down around the 10th.

[BLI snowman]

Wow, I know it was like 200+ hours out lol but it’s dead and gone this run.

 

Eh, it's not really that different. You just want to see general themes present themselves consistently at this stage, like offshore blocking which this run shows in abundance. 

[TT-SEA]

That could pass for a summer evening out here.

 

So green! #TimFilter

Its really green around here right now.

[High Desert Mat?]

Sorry guys, just don’t think anything regional is going to happen this year with it being a 2nd year Niño. We may have had a little up north or some redemption in the cascades but all I’ve even heard from the news here and the locals alike is how a winter this has been. It truly has this side of the mountains. I’m waiting for next year when we get back to normal which would be a lot better than this pathetic season so far. Ya February might produce something in two weeks, great it’s two weeks later with higher sun angles and still a 2nd year Niño ****** fest. Let’s just get some sun and warmer temps. It’s over. Bring on 20-21!!!!

[TT-SEA]

Eh, it's not really that different. You just want to see general themes present themselves consistently at this stage, like offshore blocking which this run shows in abundance.

It's much more troughy over Alaska.

[Weiner Warrior]

You are late for your NWS conference call. Kevin Martin should be part of it this time. Enjoy!

I was on it earlier

[Omegaraptor]

Sorry guys, just don’t think anything regional is going to happen this year with it being a 2nd year Niño. We may have had a little up north or some redemption in the cascades but all I’ve even heard from the news here and the locals alike is how a winter this has been. It truly has this side of the mountains. I’m waiting for next year when we get back to normal which would be a lot better than this pathetic season so far. Ya February might produce something in two weeks, great it’s two weeks later with higher sun angles and still a 2nd year Niño ****** fest. Let’s just get some sun and warmer temps. It’s over. Bring on 20-21!!!!

I think the strong PV is the bigger problem than 2nd year Niño because it means nowhere in the midlatitudes wins.

 

I’ll still root for cold and stormy for skiing until late Feb early March. Afterward it’s thunderstorms and heat FTW.

[MossMan]

It's much more troughy over Alaska.

It’s over.

[BLI snowman]

It's much more troughy over Alaska.

 

It's also not a bad looking run.

[umadbro]

Sitting at 9.99" MTD.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

We might get lucky and the cold will keep getting delayed like on the last cold snap. DELAY DELAY DELAY!!

[seattleweatherguy]

We might get lucky and the cold will keep getting delayed like on the last cold snap. DELAY DELAY DELAY!!

 

or another bad run and it will flip back eventually

[umadbro]

46/45 today.

[GHweatherChris]

Its really green around here right now.

Legit!