Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[TacomaWaWx]

I doubt it works out the way the 06Z run shows after 300 hours.

Good chance there will not be something epic... and you get snow all the time at your location anyways. And you hate this climate and have a cabin in a very cold and snowy climate.

There will probably be more sloppy snow in Port Orchard in March as well.

I could see something like a February 2018 repeat happening next month...but not a February 2019 repeat.

[Blizzard777]

Breezy in SE PDX 

Mom’s digital thermometer reading 58 here!

I will be trending North in a bit

Federal Way 51*

.28 precipitation since midnight 

[TT-SEA]

At least the 12Z GFS shows it will rain almost all of next week... that is very much needed!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Wow, it's been awhile since I've seen a 24 hour precip map like this for this area. The 2-5" stretches to the edge of Victoria proper. Already up to 0.5" on the day.

 

[TT-SEA]

This actually made be feel better. Lol it would be like you going to Hawaii and it rained the entire time and it home it was 80 with a light east breeze with cold beers everywhere.

 

Yeah... we don't plan trips to Hawaii in the summer.   Seems like a pointless waste of thousands of dolllars.  

 

It would be more like going to Hawaii in February and missing out on a week of sunshine and temps in the 50s... that would suck but its would still be better in Hawaii.

[Blizzard777]

Wow, it's been awhile since I've seen a 24 hour precip map like this for this area. The 2-5" stretches to the edge of Victoria proper. Already up to 0.5" on the day.

 

I’m going to enjoy this whole package of weather this weekend  

Impressive storm and glad the main moisture plume is North this time. 

watches and warnings lighting up the map!   

[HighlandExperience]

According to the seemingly very controversial Kuchera snowfall map, Sunday is mainly a North Sound/NW Interior special with some for Chris as well.

 

We need to move the Olympic Mountains 50 miles south.

[MossMan]

[MossMan]

According to the seemingly very controversial Kuchera snowfall map, Sunday is mainly a North Sound/NW Interior special with some for Chris as well.

 

Nice!!

[TT-SEA]

According to the seemingly very controversial Kuchera snowfall map, Sunday is mainly a North Sound special with some for Chris as well.

 

Kuchera won't be too far off if there only light precip or if even the GFS shows temps above freezing. Often the GFS shows temps in the 20s even in an obviously marginal air mass. The GFS shows mid to upper 30s on Sunday... so even though that is probably still too cold it's warm enough that even the Kuchera maps shows very little snow for the Seattle area.

[Blizzard777]

Current marble with AR

 

[Blizzard777]

Earlier this month we decided we would use the Olympics as an up-and-down gate. Raise the mountains when it's raining so we can make use of the rain shadow, lower the mountains when it's snowing so we don't get screwed.

 

I am particularly fond of this idea. The mechanics and funding are still yet to be worked out though.

This is actually fun to ponder!  

[TT-SEA]

Kuchera actually shows less snow than the 10:1, which goes against every thought on here about that map.

 

Shocker.

It's not that simple.

 

The biggest errors on the Kuchera come when the GFS incorrectly shows temps way below freezing with precip... when the reality is likely to be temps at or above freezing. The last event in January is good example of that for Seattle southward.

[Blizzard777]

Fun ferry ride to Whidbey island today ! 

[TT-SEA]

Yes, modeled temperatures play an important role in modeled snowfall.

 

Another shocker.

And the Kuchera maps will often exaggerate snowfall even more in our area where most events are marginal and the GFS in particular runs unrealistically cold.

[Blizzard777]

Wind really picking up here now(PDX)

seagulls be  gliding

[TacomaWaWx]

February 2018 at my old house.

February 2018 for most lowland places near the sound it was just a couple of 1” accumulations over several days with highs in the mid 30s. I could see something similar to that happening at some point between now and mid March.

[TacomaWaWx]

Fun ferry ride to Whidbey island today !

 

No wind here at all yet...but I imagine that’ll change today. Could end up being the strongest wind event of the season. Has been barely anything in terms of wind events this season...strongest wind event was on New Years so far and that was only 45-50mph gusts.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

And the Kuchera maps will often exaggerate snowfall even more in our area where most events are marginal and the GFS in particular runs unrealistically cold.

There are ECMWF Kuchera maps too.

[Omegaraptor]

PDX already up to 59. Only 5 hours of warming to go.

[GHweatherChris]

Kuchera actually shows less snow than the 10:1, which goes against every thought on here about that map.

 

Shocker.

Can you post the 10:1 map, same timeframe?

[MossMan]

February 2018 for most lowland places near the sound it was just a couple of 1” accumulations over several days with highs in the mid 30s. I could see something similar to that happening at some point between now and mid March.

That was such a fun stretch, the big snow happened on the 18th, stayed below freezing for a week (might have popped a bit above freezing once or twice but DP’s stayed low) multiple snow events and solid snow cover into the first of March!

[Cloud]

Record high for SEA today is 61. Unlikely to get there but it’s going to be a warm day. Already up to 52.

[Skagit Weather]

Pretty impressive:

 

 

 

They'll end up getting more rain this month than I had almost all of last year 

[TacomaWaWx]

That was such a fun stretch, the big snow happened on the 18th, stayed below freezing for a week (might have popped a bit above freezing once or twice but DP’s stayed low) multiple snow events and solid snow cover into the first of March!

It ended up being pretty fun here too it was just slightly too warm for it to stick around in the daytime. We had a 1/2” on the 18th then on the night of the 21st we got 2 inches of snow...then a 1/2” during the overrunning event on the 23rd. Would be fun if it happened again I’d take it at this point.

[GHweatherChris]

27" rain MTD.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Got down to 50F and now up to 57F. Partly cloudy.

[Bryant]

Can you post the 10:1 map, same timeframe?

[GHweatherChris]

C'mon Euro, show me something good!

[Jesse]

PDX down to 60.

[TacomaWaWx]

Starting to get breezy here after no wind at all just an hour ago...up to 0.51”...10.15” for January. Should be a stormy day on tap.

[TacomaWaWx]

Temp up to 54...temps rising with the increasing southerlies. Some stations around Graham, Yelm, JBLM and Olympia are in the upper 50s.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through Sunday afternoon per 12Z ECMWF. Also shows highs in the low to mid 40s on Sunday.

 

[MossMan]

Total snow through Sunday afternoon per 12Z ECMWF. Also shows highs in the low to mid 40s on Sunday.

 

That’s terrible! I’m about in the second shade of grey.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Total snow through Sunday afternoon per 12Z ECMWF. Also shows highs in the low to mid 40s on Sunday.

 

This is exactly how it will play out. Perfectly forecasted.

[MossMan]

And then there was silence. The EURO has spoken.

[weather_fan]

Total snow through Sunday afternoon per 12Z ECMWF. Also shows highs in the low to mid 40s on Sunday.

 

Yeah this should be the right one.

[HighlandExperience]

This is exactly how it will play out. Perfectly forecasted.

Sadly

[TT-SEA]

A little better when you include some more marginal temp snow with the warm front on Tuesday...

 

[GHweatherChris]

Both models show snow here, that's all that matters this far out!!