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Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion


snow_wizard

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Frogs tonight !!!!!!

It's like clockwork.  Love those biorhythms.  My frogs started chorusing as well.  Phototaxic responses and these ridiculous 55f days don't hurt.  My Bewicks Wrens have started singing up a storm as well.  Turkey Vultures will be back mid to late Feb, Rufus Hummers in March.  So the cycle continues.  Ospreys in April. 

Does spring training count as a biorhythm?

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Today’s the first day we officially hit post-5pm sunset for Seattle. The sun sets at 5:00:18pm today!

 

A gradual return towards sanity!

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Not a troll post here... but it is really green around here for late January. Just like last year.

 

The grass is quite green... our daffodils are way up... our irises are coming up... the alder tree buds are big and red now... and we have the same small bushes actually leafing out like last year at this time.

 

I remember that November seemed more dormant than usual... this is the opposite now.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Not a troll post here... but it is really green around here for late January. Just like last year.

The grass is quite green... our daffodils are way up... our irises are coming up... the alder tree buds are big and red now... and we have the same small bushes actually leafing out like last year at this time.

I remember that November seemed more dormant than usual... this is the opposite now.

My Rhododendrons put out buds and almost flowered in December. The little cold streak in January stopped them for now. Not joking.
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Not a troll post here... but it is really green around here for late January. Just like last year.

 

The grass is quite green... our daffodils are way up... our irises are coming up... the alder tree buds are big and red now... and we have the same small bushes actually leafing out like last year at this time.

 

I remember that November seemed more dormant than usual... this is the opposite now.

 

Sometimes my grass greens in the middle of winter, in fact it's doing that right now. Doesn't really mean much a lot of years. I'm just coming off of a really snowy period middle of the month (pack of 13" in the yard), it's greening anyway.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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I am not sure. The GFS clearly lead the way with the overall pattern last time... while the ECMWF flailed around early on.

 

But the GFS was clearly too aggressive with the cold air... so while it did well with the big picture even at a long range it did not do well with the details of that pattern. And that became painfully obvious to those from Seattle southward.

The GFS is more zonal, and that would theoretically fit into the “fast” or progressive bias it has with cyclones.

 

Bullet #5.

 

ILCXZl7.png

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The GFS is more zonal, and that would theoretically fit into the “fast” or progressive bias it has with cyclones.

 

Bullet #5.

 

ILCXZl7.png

Interestingly... the GFS locked into the blocking with the last event much earlier than the ECMWF. It was fascinating to watch the ECMWF play catch up. But once the ECMWF figured it out... then it was MUCH more realistic with surface conditions.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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But the ECMWF’s skill scores were much better than the GFS’s overall even before the pattern change. It’s just a superior model all-around.

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It wouldn’t surprise me to see some snow again in February...if not I’m glad I scored some last month. Still hasn’t been any impressive cold south of Seattle...coldest day being a 36/28 on 1/14. Coldest low this winter was 25 on 11/30 still. 1.5” of snow on the winter. Glad some interesting weather happened atleast but hoping that February ends up with something more interesting.

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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At day 5 you can already tell the ECMWF is going to get better leverage on the flat ridge off the West Coast.  Almost sure to lead to a colder outcome than the GFS.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Going Dowwwwnnnnn....

 

I love the high tech comment.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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12Z ECMWF is coming around to the GFS solution showing the AR focusing a little farther north late in the week.    Noticeable shift towards the GFS.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-precip-6hr-inch-0

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It wouldn’t surprise me to see some snow again in February...if not I’m glad I scored some last month. Still hasn’t been any impressive cold south of Seattle...coldest day being a 36/28 on 1/14. Coldest low this winter was 25 on 11/30 still. 1.5” of snow on the winter. Glad some interesting weather happened atleast but hoping that February ends up with something more interesting.

 

February is on a roll lately.  Wouldn't be at all surprising to see something.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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It wouldn’t surprise me to see some snow again in February...if not I’m glad I scored some last month. Still hasn’t been any impressive cold south of Seattle...coldest day being a 36/28 on 1/14. Coldest low this winter was 25 on 11/30 still. 1.5” of snow on the winter. Glad some interesting weather happened atleast but hoping that February ends up with something more interesting.

 

Aside from one low of -3 this month I haven't really had any legitimately colder than average weather since October here.

 

But having one of my deepest packs in the yard next to Dec 2015 and Jan 2017 accounts for something!

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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It' easy to see where the ECMWF anf GFS part ways.  Around day 5 the GFS want to dig deeper off the West coast which pushes much of the West Coast ridge energy eastward instead of injecting the positive energy back into the GOA block that is trying to develop.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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February is on a roll lately.  Wouldn't be at all surprising to see something.

February in the 2010s was pretty good. In my lifetime February has produced a lot more than December or January have.
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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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At day 6 it's obvious the ECMWF isn't going to back down on it's idea of a cold outcome.  We need Rob to post the maps!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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February in the 2010s was pretty good. In my lifetime February has produced a lot more than December or January have.

 

For sure.  February is a strange animal.  Sometimes we can go for 20 years without a good one, and then we can get 3 or 4 good ones in less than a decade.  The 2010s were pretty impressive.  Kind of like the 1985 through 1990 period or 1948 through 1962.

 

That having been said I'm amazed I have actually recorded more snow IMBY in January than any other month since I moved here in 2000.  Not by much, but it is the more than Dec or Feb.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The day 7 ECMWF has a low smack dab over Hawaii.  A much less progressive cold trough over the NW vs GFS.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Share on other sites

February in the 2010s was pretty good. In my lifetime February has produced a lot more than December or January have.

 

My list of good February totals.

 

2011 - 18.3"

2012 - 14.7"

2017 - 12.3"

2019 - 27.5" (33.4" at OR-KL-5!)

 

Average - 9"

 

2014 didn't make it, was a below normal month for me, but I know the west sides had a big storm that month.

I had a weak 2.5" all of which fell on just 1 day. lol

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Euro continues to be more suppressed and colder than the GFS.

 

850mb temps are already -5 for Seattle Saturday afternoon and drop to -9 for Portland by Sunday night.

 

Pushes the baraclinic band South more quickly though so it doesn't have the snow on the North side the GFS shows, but has a few more convective snow showers in the colder airmass after it pushes South.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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My list of good February totals.

 

2011 - 18.3"

2012 - 14.7"

2017 - 12.3"

2019 - 27.5" (33.4" at OR-KL-5!)

 

Average - 9"

 

2014 didn't make it, was a below normal month for me, but I know the west sides had a big storm that month.

I had a weak 2.5" all of which fell on just 1 day. lol

We’ve had a few decent ones. 7” in 2011...3” in 2014....5” in 2017 3” in 2018 and 22” in 2019. Even before last February...it was already my biggest snow producing month over the last 15 years.
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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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12Z ECMWF is pretty bland... very little lowland and then its actually sunny on Monday with highs around 40. 

 

A chance for a sunny day... that is big news indeed!  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Also seemed like early March was good until recently.

 

Last March was pretty wet at my place. 

 

2012 was insane, my snowiest month that winter was March with 15.2". Likely won't have another March that snowy in some time.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I certainly like the much less progressive solution the ECMWF is advertising.  Much colder than the GFS.  Next weekend / early next week is shown to have snow on pretty much every run of both models now.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Share on other sites

Euro continues to be more suppressed and colder than the GFS.

 

850mb temps are already -5 for Seattle Saturday afternoon and drop to -9 for Portland by Sunday night.

 

Pushes the baraclinic band South more quickly though so it doesn't have the snow on the North side the GFS shows, but has a few more convective snow showers in the colder airmass after it pushes South.

 

A blend could be a fun outcome.  Not at all unlikely.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Share on other sites

Super Bowl Sunday does not look like much... unless temps around 40 with a little wet snow is all you are looking for that day.

 

It's not a pattern that would bring highs below the upper 30's unless the anafront held North during the day Sunday to keep synoptic precip falling.

 

Highs near 40 with convective snow showers and a convergence zone would make for a plenty interesting day too though. The Euro would be especially snowy for the Coast in that cold onshore flow.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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I certainly like the much less progressive solution the ECMWF is advertising.  Much colder than the GFS.  Next weekend / early next week is shown to have snow on pretty much every run of both models now.

 

 

ECMWF has a well known cut-off bias... as I am reminded of frequently here.  

 

So I suspect it will be a little more progressive than what is shown now... probably a compromise with the GFS.

 

As it is... the best thing about the 12Z ECMWF is a chance for dry weather and clear skies which is has been virtually impossible to achieve for almost 2 months now.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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ECMWF has a well known cut-off bias... as I am reminded of frequently here.  

 

So I suspect it will be a little more progressive than what is shown now... probably a compromise with the GFS.

 

As it is... the best thing about the ECMWF run is a chance for dry weather and clear skies which is has been virtually impossible to achieve for almost 2 months now.

 

should be really nice for my trip to the San Juan’s next week.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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