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Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion


snow_wizard

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The ECMWF continues to look poised for a reload fairly quickly after the intital cold shot as well.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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It's not a pattern that would bring highs below the upper 30's unless the anafront held North during the day Sunday to keep synoptic precip falling.

 

Highs near 40 with convective snow showers and a convergence zone would make for a plenty interesting day too though. The Euro would be especially snowy for the Coast in that cold onshore flow.

 

It actually shows coastal snowfall down to southern OR.  I'll bet it won't be long before this forum is buzzing again.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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From a winter weather perspective... the 12Z ECMWF would basically be a non-event.    

 

A couple 40/26 type days with sunshine.      

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Good greif.  The East gets torched yet again on this run.  I did not see that coming this winter.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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It actually shows coastal snowfall down to southern OR.  I'll bet it won't be long before this forum is buzzing again.

 

 

I am not sure about that... this looks like nothing compared to the lead up to the last event.      People are pretty burned out and this looks like a fairly run-of-the-mill chilly period.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I am not sure about that... this looks like nothing compared to the lead up to the last event.      People are pretty burned out and this looks like a fairly run-of-the-mill chilly period.

yeah...unless something drastic changes it looks like some high temps in the upper 30s to around 40 with some sunshine and frosty mornings. Kind of similar to this last November. I definitely don’t see much to be excited about in terms of seeing snow below 1000’.
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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Hopefully the GFS will reach an agreement on the MJO soon.  That has really been the driver this winter.  Right now they are a lot different from each other.  The GFS will get to the coveted octant 5, but it just takes longer than the ECMWF.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Share on other sites

yeah...unless something drastic changes it looks like some high temps in the upper 30s to around 40 with some sunshine and frosty mornings. Kind of similar to this last November. I definitely don’t see much to be excited about in terms of seeing snow below 1000’.

 

We'll see.  The last one kind of fizzled for most areas in the home stretch.  A lot of recent cold snaps have gone the other way in the home stretch.  I think the ECMWF runs are a step beyond typical fare.  We have a Kona low involved for one.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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From a winter weather perspective... the 12Z ECMWF would basically be a non-event.    

 

A couple 40/26 type days with sunshine.      

You have a different definition of a Winter event due to your elevation.

 

Nobody is expecting a snowstorm or arctic air, but we are happy to have something to track right now. 850mb temps of -9 in onshore flow would bring some lowland snow.

 

I am not sure about that... this looks like nothing compared to the lead up to the last event.      People are pretty burned out and this looks like a fairly run-of-the-mill chilly period.

This is nothing like the last event and no one has implied it is. That was a legit arctic airmass

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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ECMWF has a well known cut-off bias... as I am reminded of frequently here.

 

So I suspect it will be a little more progressive than what is shown now... probably a compromise with the GFS.

 

As it is... the best thing about the 12Z ECMWF is a chance for dry weather and clear skies which is has been virtually impossible to achieve for almost 2 months now.

The GFS has a well documented progressive/zonal bias in the medium range. It’s at least equal in “amplitude” to the ECMWF’s cutoff bias at this time of year, possibly even more problematic.

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This ECMWF run still spits out a 39-25 day for SEA.   A good 10 to 12 degrees below normal.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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We'll see. The last one kind of fizzled for most areas in the home stretch. A lot of recent cold snaps have gone the other way in the home stretch. I think the ECMWF runs are a step beyond typical fare. We have a Kona low involved for one.

hopefully you’re right and we see some snow next month. There’s a few details that have to change/improve for us to have a good shot at snow and cold...hopefully they do and these runs are the start of something interesting.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Share on other sites

You have a different definition of a Winter event due to your elevation.

 

Nobody is expecting a snowstorm, but we are happy to have something to track right now. 850mb temps of -9 in onshore flow would bring some lowland snow.

 

This is nothing like the last event and no one has implied it is. That was a legit arctic airmass

 

This could easily evolve into something quite good though.  The pieces will be there.  I can't understand not being intrigued right now.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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You have a different definition of a Winter event due to your elevation.

 

Nobody is expecting a snowstorm, but we are happy to have something to track right now. 850mb temps of -9 in onshore flow would bring some lowland snow.

 

This is nothing like the last event and no one has implied it is. That was a legit arctic airmass

Fair enough.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The GFS has a well documented progressive/zonal bias in the medium range. It’s at least equal in “amplitude” to the ECMWF’s cutoff bias at this time of year, possibly even more problematic.

 

And that is certainly the issue we are dealing with on next weekend's trough right now.  The GFS just blows it right through.  The ECMWF really shuts down the Pacific by early next week.   A log jam of blocking features. I hope we can completely shut it down and give the whole country a nice February.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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And that is certainly the issue we are dealing with on next weekend's trough right now. The GFS just blows it right through. The ECMWF really shuts down the Pacific by early next week. A log jam of blocking features.

Likely will be a compromise. Not as cold as the ECMWF and not as progressive as the GFS.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The EPS mean is about a degree colder early next week on the 850s.  Seattle bottoms out around 9C below normal.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Day 10 per the 12Z EPS...

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500-anom-09472

Have to say this looks pretty terrific for me. Snow cover at the local ski valley is kind of getting ripped to shreds by this dry heatwave we’ve been having, down to a 24” base now, hopefully this pattern can deliver some kind of cold wet system. Snow down here in the city would be a bonus.
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12Z EPS 10-15 day mean:

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500-anom-5day-

 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850-anom-5day-

 

 

But... at day 15 its clearly retrograding:

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850-anom-strea

We need to speed up the timing, have a great blast starting around the 6th with a Melt-A-Thon commencing by the 15th!!!!!! Then a reload on the 23rd!
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Wow....Kobe Bryant's dead. That's crazy, I know how big of a figure he was in the basketball scene.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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