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Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion


snow_wizard

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Not often you see this strong a CZ signature on the GFS.

 

4 PM to 10 PM precip :

 

attachicon.gifqpf_006h.us_city_sea.png

Pretty stoke about this, the CZ has its own mind and do whatever it wants due to its convective nature, no models is gonna be certain of what it'll do. The fact that it's signalling some heavy showers will surprise many. I can't wait to see how this plays out. 

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regardless, no one cares about the weather in your neck of the woods. And I mean that in the nicest way

I care about my weather so that's not nobody...

 

 

In all seriousness I get what you're saying, and that's fine, this is a PNW forum after all. I'm mainly here for the model analysis and, since the SW is not that far from the PNW we do have some pattern similarities. If you don't want to read my posts about Tucson then put me on ignore, I couldn't care less, but some others might be interested, I know I find weather/climate interesting all over the world. 

 

Just my 2 cents

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So I noticed today (and several folks on FB noticed the same thing) that Amazon Prime is showing Thursday as the soonest for any deliveries up here.  Never seen that before...

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I care about my weather so that's no nobody...

 

 

In all seriousness I get what you're saying, and that's fine, this is a PNW forum after all. I'm mainly here for the model analysis and, since the SW is not that far from the PNW we do have some pattern similarities. If you don't want to read my posts about Tucson then put me on ignore, I couldn't care less, but some others might be interested, I know I find weather/climate interesting all over the world.

 

Just my 2 cents

I get where you are coming from, but this is a forum related to nw weather, and we are in the height of the fun season here. Your posts may be received better in slower times of the year here. You are writing a recipe for everyone to hate you by interrupting this time of year with weather from Tucson...

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I get where you are coming from, but this is a forum related to nw weather, and we are in the height of the fun season here. Your posts may be received better in slower times of the year here. You are writing a recipe for everyone to hate you by interrupting this time of year with weather from Tucson...

Like I said. You can put me on ignore if my posts bother you that much (this forum does have an ignore feature right?). If anything I would think seeing my posts would make you even more thankful to live where you do. My winters are far warmer and less snowy than what you guys get. Shows it can always be worse lol.

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I get where you are coming from, but this is a forum related to nw weather, and we are in the height of the fun season here. Your posts may be received better in slower times of the year here. You are writing a recipe for everyone to hate you by interrupting this time of year with weather from Tucson...

 

You remind me so much of me sometimes. 

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I get where you are coming from, but this is a forum related to nw weather, and we are in the height of the fun season here. Your posts may be received better in slower times of the year here. You are writing a recipe for everyone to hate you by interrupting this time of year with weather from Tucson...

Not that I'm the final word, but I personally I don't see where its a problem as long has he recognizes its a PNW forum.....hell we have someone from Maryland and someone from Colorado posting here, Bozeman MT, and probably a couple of other places I am not aware of.  Anyway, they throw out the occasional observation about their area and its no bid deal.  So maybe chill out and lay off the guy!  

 

He's kinda screwed regarding the forum for his location, and as this current weather cycle perfectly illustrates, the PNW is a particularly challenging place to forecast at times, which is a weather weenies paradise! 

 

 

I think he had the perfect suggestion that if you really have a problem with it this forum is conveniently equipped with an "ignore" feature.

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Not that I'm the final word, but I personally I don't see where its a problem as long has he recognizes its a PNW forum.....

 

I agree that it's fine to have him posting over here since we have people from other locations posting on this subforum. Although the difference is that when they do, they are generally giving their input on our local weather.

 

The confusion arises when said poster makes a comment like "Wow the 18Z GFS looks way worse for snow" without any sort of qualifier indicating they are talking about southern Arizona as opposed to the western lowlands of Oregon and Washington.

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I agree that it's fine to have him posting over here since we have people from other locations posting on this subforum. Although the difference is that when they do, they are generally giving their input on our local weather.

 

The confusion arises when said poster makes a comment like "Wow the 18Z GFS looks way worse for snow" without any sort of qualifier indicating they are talking about southern Arizona as opposed to the western lowlands of Oregon and Washington.

 

This I completely agree with. If he could clarify when he;s talking about the PNW and when he's talking about Arizona it would be very helpful.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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I agree that it's fine to have him posting over here since we have people from other locations posting on this subforum. Although the difference is that when they do, they are generally giving their input on our local weather.

 

The confusion arises when said poster makes a comment like "Wow the 18Z GFS looks way worse for snow" without any sort of qualifier indicating they are talking about southern Arizona as opposed to the western lowlands of Oregon and Washington.

 Good point, and AJ seems like a sharp enough individual to pick up on that and keep that in mind for future posts.  That said, hopefully he can learn from all of the analysis here and take that knowledge to apply as he looks at the models for his own area.

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Aj seems to have a passion for the weather on here and he doesn’t have anybody to talk with it about on the other forum. As long he explains his posts more and clarifies what he means, he should definitely stay. Everybody is here to learn and expand their Weather knowledge❄️❄️

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WRF is strange all around... it shows the c-zone pushing south right through King County early tomorrow evening and then shows absolutely no snow through 84 hours.

 

The GFS operational shows the c-zone hanging up north tomorrow night and then shows light snow lingering around for Monday and Tuesday.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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WRF is strange all around... it shows the c-zone pushing south right through King County early tomorrow evening and then shows absolutely no snow through 84 hours.

 

The GFS operational shows the c-zone hanging up north tomorrow night and then shows light snow lingering around for Monday and Tuesday.

WRF tends to really struggle in situations like this.

 

Usually underestimates precip and give us dry outflow too quickly. Probably the case this time as well.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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I almost wonder if we got hacked.  The forum acted really weird for a bit.

 

I was gone for a while, that seems kinda strange?

 

Wasn't feeling great, have a lot of posts to catch up on!!!

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 16
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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❄️

 

I love the Calvin and Hobbes snow panels. I always wanted to emulate them when I was growing up.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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WRF is strange all around... it shows the c-zone pushing south right through King County early tomorrow evening and then shows absolutely no snow through 84 hours.

 

The GFS operational shows the c-zone hanging up north tomorrow night and then shows light snow lingering around for Monday and Tuesday.

 

Boundary isn't strong enough IMO for there to be that much dry air advection behind it. These slow saggy arctic boundaries tend to see the lift and moisture hang around a lot longer, like the operational shows. South and Central Sound will probably see frequent snow showers throughout Monday and into Tuesday.

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Snowed about an inch earlier, most of which melted. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 16
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Like this one:

 

calvinsnowmen.png

 

Or this one:

 

morecalvinsnowmen.jpeg

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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Euro through 10 PM Sunday:

 

attachicon.gifsn10_006h.us_city_sea.png

 

I would love it if this happened. Shows 2-3" over my house. And agrees with the NAM (at least in Skagit County).

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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Boundary isn't strong enough IMO for there to be that much dry air advection behind it. These slow saggy arctic boundaries tend to see the lift and moisture hang around a lot longer, like the operational shows. South and Central Sound will probably see frequent snow showers throughout Monday and into Tuesday.

 

Yeah... WRF makes no sense.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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