Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[BLI snowman]

To be fair, the GFS map does indicate that it understands the gorge effect at least a little bit. 

[TT-SEA]

Iv'e been through this type of pattern here before and i will be getting gas for the generator. This will be a tree busting power out snow storm here. Looks like i will get hit again saturday and sunday before the snow level lifts. Also notices the gfs is hanging the second system out to see further slowing the warming trend.

Yep... seems like lows are farther offshore which delays warm up. This becomes a cold air damming special after today.

[Cloud]

Per HRRR look like some snow showers will develop for Seattle around noon and keeps it going for few hours. Doesn’t like much accumulation though.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Started snowing up here about 6:45 or so, coming down a a good clip.  Got down to 15 at my house.

 

Radar indicates the fun is almost over, but this is the first shower that made it mostly intact to Bellingham without being mostly evaporated by the outflow. Hopefully more to come.

 

It is quite rare to see it snowing at this temperature in this climate.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This will probably be very unpredictable tonight. The storm track is aimed right at the Olympics and it looks like energy will be diverted around the north and south of the Mountains. This image kinda shows this idea.

[Silverfin]

Bellingham looking better than yesterday morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ended up with about 5.5" from this event. Respectable. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This could be the biggest snow for the northern tip of washington in a long time.

[Esquimalt]

This will probably be very unpredictable tonight. The storm track is aimed right at the Olympics and it looks like energy will be diverted around the north and south of the Mountains. This image kinda shows this idea.

Yeah that’s a solid 7 or 8 inches for me. We can only hope

[wxmet]

Of course the models trend north with the snow band tonight. I should call my real estate agent.

[ShawniganLake]

12z GFS further north.

That would be nice for here. 14-18”

[Esquimalt]

That would be nice for here. 14-18”

Guidance is looking good. EC is playing it super conservative

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Yeah that’s a solid 7 or 8 inches for me. We can only hope

 

That seems to be the developing consensus with the potential for double that, not a bad place to be.

[HighlandExperience]

[Esquimalt]

That seems to be the developing consensus with the potential for double that, not a bad place to be.

Yep. But if that band sets up a little north or a little south we could easily be looking at 2-3 inches. Super precarious set up

[Cloud]

Hey look, another hole for Kent/Covington/Maple Valley! <_>

 

Common thread in many models over the past couple days for each of these 'events'. Too north for the stuff heading south around the Olympics, too south for the CZ and stuff heading north around the Olympics.

 

Obviously too early to say how things will play out, but certainly doesn't feel like our time. Everett gets nailed again though so that's nice.

Of course the Olympics is cock-blocking the moisture.

 

Not all that surprising considering it’s aiming straight east.

[ShawniganLake]

Guidance is looking good. EC is playing it super conservative

4-6” is probably a little too conservative unless that band misses to our south. It’s pretty narrow.

 

As that storm comes North tomorrow I think Nanaimo to Comox are going to get nuked. Strong winds and heavy snow. Too bad that storm couldn’t have come closer to the coast before blowing up

[Timmy]

To be fair, the GFS map does indicate that it understands the gorge effect at least a little bit.

 

im impressed and a little optimistic with the consistency the gfs has had for snow in Columbia county for tomorrow for about a week now.

[Esquimalt]

4-6” is probably a little too conservative unless that band misses to our south. It’s pretty narrow.

 

As that storm comes North tomorrow I think Nanaimo to Comox are going to get nuked. Strong winds and heavy snow. Too bad that storm couldn’t have come closer to the coast before blowing up

My personal forecast is 6-9 inches for myself, 8-11 for you. I don’t think environment Canada wants to add those numbers until they’re absolutely convinced they’re gonna haooen

[GHweatherChris]

2" new snow overnight, apparently I have to be asleep for it to snow good.

 

And that is shittty about tonights system, it needs to be 50 miles further south.

[El_Nina]

Light snow starting up again. 33

[HighlandExperience]

That is better. I’d be good with that

[Rubus Leucodermis]

This could be the biggest snow for the northern tip of washington in a long time.

 

Sequim got 3 feet last year.

[BLI snowman]

im impressed and a little optimistic with the consistency the gfs has had for snow in Columbia county for tomorrow for about a week now.

 

 

The other models turn the flow due southerly much quicker. The GFS insists on a more ESE gradient north of the river, which allows the main round of precip overnight to stay snow.

 

Definitely some similarities to January 17-18, 2012 with what it's been showing locally. Scappoose picked up 11" with that and Ridgefield had about 6" as the flow stayed ESE the entire night. South of the river it turned to rain pretty quickly and then it was all rain south of Tualatin.

[MossMan]

Heavy snow! Going to give my driveway a good plow now!

[Cloud]

NWS is saying 50-60mph wind gust for North Bend tomorrow. That’s crazy.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Sequim got 3 feet last year.

Thats not the tip.

[TT-SEA]

My wife said I-90 is a complete mess of compact snow from North Bend to Fall City.

[jakerepp]

Looks like a good band of showers is curving its way toward the north sound from the straight and Clallam County. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Currently 21F and getting some more flurries this morning, up to nearly 3" since this all began.

[jakerepp]

WRF from 4PM tonight through 4PM tomorrow.

 

About the exact same spot for the southern edge of the band as the 00z. At least it didn't trend further north like everything else.

 

Don't care for how close to the edge of that I am

[GHweatherChris]

[SnarkyGoblin]

Of course the models trend north with the snow band tonight. I should call my real estate agent.

I feel ya.  Seattle and Vashon are the only school districts in King County which are not closed. 

[GHweatherChris]

#trendsouth

[Perturbed Member]

The other models turn the flow due southerly much quicker. The GFS insists on a more ESE gradient north of the river, which allows the main round of precip overnight to stay snow.

 

Definitely some similarities to January 17-18, 2012 with what it's been showing locally. Scappoose picked up 11" with that and Ridgefield had about 6" as the flow stayed ESE the entire night. South of the river it turned to rain pretty quickly and then it was all rain south of Tualatin.

 

GFS  has been kind to Washington County for tomorrow, I hope reality will too. Hillsboro area will probably warm up too fast from the southerlies though.

I'd be pleased to get an inch before the changeover. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Uw wrf showing 2-2.5 inches over tacoma by tomorrow but nobody does. Gotta be a outlier....

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Thats not the tip.

 

Neah Bay? That would be unusual for them to get heavy snow.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Got down to 33F at about 7AM.  Up to 35F now.  Occasional light rain overnight but I didn't notice any snow mixing in.

[OysterPrintout]

Snow at my work near Hillsboro Airport

[seattleweatherguy]

Not as much snow as I expected barely an inch hope for more this week