Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

For your viewing pleasure.

 

Poulsbo right now.  And below on a nice Tim day, for contrast.  

If that was a Tim day the trees' would be on fire from the heat.

[Randyc321]

It nailed the last 2 nights for here, now I am hoping it starts a southerly trend, current flow on the radar seems promising but likely to change as of now as the warm front starts moving in.

 

Thanks.  Good info.

[Randyc321]

It has been doing a pretty terrible job up here with this pattern. Even when the radar is lit up it doesn't seem to forecast snow and earlier in the week it was giving me 3-4" and I got nothing. General pattern things it does okay on. Like it will snow somewhere tonight. But location and amount are anyone's guess.

Thanks.  Now I got more Conflicting Reports!  

[TT-SEA]

The way this thing pretty much showed up outta nowhere I think surprises are in store.

ECMWF trending north is not good. The surprise could be even farther north.

[Randyc321]

Tim is right. I ment it is trending better from older runs.

 

Thanks Snowmizer.  I'm not gonna fret.  Yeah, sure.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The only advantage the hrrr has over the 12z models is new data every hr. Besides that it's probable a crapper of a model.

[TacomaWaWx]

Headed out to my mom's house on the kitsap peninsula for the next couple days. Should be a lot more fun seeing the major snow dump than dry east winds!

[OysterPrintout]

Euro also looks a little quicker with the timing down here. Arriving around afternoon commute. Local mets probably wish that GFS would give up the ghost so they could assuredly just call the whole thing a maybe some snow in the air nice to see but no worries event instead of having a remote possibility that the gorge holds on and it becomes a disaster.

[Randyc321]

Wind gust maps show the GFS and Euro differ on how strong the east wind gets Wednesday night. GFS is much weaker with the winds than the Euro is, which is probably why it has a bit higher totals for the Central Sound.

 

If I'm remembering correctly, this is a role reversal. Earlier runs of the GFS were more windy, while Euro showed less cross-Cascade gradient.

 

 

 

I like either one of those.  GFS most, of course.

[Kuna_Idaho_Dude]

What is the go to radar when using a PC?

[Randyc321]

I would be feeling fairly confident for substantial snowfall tonight if I was anyone in Skagit, Whatcom, or Clallam counties. Vancouver Island/BC should also score pretty easily tonight.

 

Anywhere south of Everett will have to hang their hat on ignoring the northern trend of the morning models and hoping they have the placement of the band wrong. 

 

Kitsap

[HighlandExperience]

Ay, Central Sounders, we still got the HRRR! Hasn't really moved north the past couple runs.

 

I don't know about ya'll, but I'd much rather have the HRRR in our pocket than the Euro. /s

 

Time for HRRR to shine

[TT-SEA]

Our old dog loves the snow.

 

[runninthruda206]

[MR. HEATMISER]

What is the go to radar when using a PC?

https://atmos.uw.edu/current-weather/northwest-radar/

[Randyc321]

Poulsbo is getting it nice this morning.  Sorry to keep reporting on Poulsbo.  I'm not really sorry.

I see my office closed for a while and it makes me happy.

 

BTW-My house is right under the green blob at the end of the loop on the island.

[Kuna_Idaho_Dude]

https://atmos.uw.edu/current-weather/northwest-radar/

 

 

Thanks I'll check it out!

[FroYoBro]

I have religiously followed the weather models for the past 3 weeks for our potential January event. I won’t even get one snowflake in Tigard in the end.

 

Oh well, I guess this is part of why snow events are so fun and exciting around here!

[Jesse]

Sunny morning.

[MossMan]

Lynden is still at 13 degrees.

25 here.

[MossMan]

Snow has finally tapered off up here. 3” new at work, probably 4” new at home. Didn’t think that was going to happen this morning!

[Randyc321]

HRRR should be used for trends, not exact amounts or location of snow.

 

Each hourly run, what are the trends it is showing? Further south, less snow, etc. etc.

 

Thank you

[Winterdog]

Snowing lightly 25F added 1.5” overnight

[MossMan]

Snowing lightly 25F added 1.5” overnight

Hopefully we get nuked tonight for a grand finale!

[TT-SEA]

SW wind just hit here... looks like a blizzard at times with snow blowing off the trees.

[Blizzard777]

Headed out to my mom's house on the kitsap peninsula for the next couple days. Should be a lot more fun seeing the major snow dump than dry east winds!

Smart man! 

[Jesse]

PDX up to 39. Was thinking a sub-40 high was possible today but looking more than likely they won’t manage to pull that off.

 

Maybe tomorrow.

[TT-SEA]

Winds have calmed down temporarily at SEA... back down to 32 with light snow as well. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

Everett northward seems to be ground zero with the current radar...

 

And foothills, of course. Thanks Tim.

[jakerepp]

Everett northward seems to be ground zero with the current radar.

[Deweydog]

PDX up to 39. Was thinking a sub-40 high was possible today but looking more than likely they won’t manage to pull that off.

 

Maybe tomorrow.

Dedaol tnorf.

[TacomaWaWx]

Hoping my mom's house on the peninsula gets nailed the next 2 days! Going to try and hike green mountain and see seaback during what should be some wild hood canal snowfalls. Better than seeing barely anything at Tacoma. 33 with 1" of snow in Tacoma probably about the most it'll be.

[Kuna_Idaho_Dude]

37 and sunny in Pacific (a little south of Algona/Auburn) S wind at 5mph gusting to 15mph

[Blizzard777]

Looks like CZ forming just to my north 

[Jesse]

Dedaol tnorf.

This is making that stretch of multiple sub-40 highs in late November look pretty impressive!

[Randyc321]

It would be very surprising to see 40 degrees to the Canadian border that fast.

 

Just wait for it.  There's more coming where that came from.

[Kuna_Idaho_Dude]

37 and sunny in Pacific (a little south of Algona/Auburn) S wind at 5mph gusting to 15mph

 

Loosing the sun, temp dropped back down to 35. S wind is picking up.

[Bryant]

Just took my daughter out on Brennan's quad that he's storing here... Amazing conditions in the neighborhood, but that cold definitely rips through you

[TT-SEA]

Looks like CZ forming just to my north

Not a c-zone... just precip on the backside of the low.

[Deweydog]

This is making that stretch of multiple sub-30 lows in late November look pretty impressive!

Most def.