Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[jakerepp]

So are we thinking Kuchera ratio might be more accurate given the current conditions?

[luvssnow_spokane]

Looks to be a very robust and intense convergence zone setting up in the central sound. I have had some pretty strong south winds today. 

 

 

[Skagit Weather]

Skagit and Clallam counties are ground zero for tonight, per the RGEM.

 

If I remember Randy's black dot on the map, I think he gets around 10 inches on this.

 

That looks amazing! I would definitely be down for that, but don’t want the northward trend to continue.

[TT-SEA]

Looks to be a very robust and intense convergence zone setting up in the central sound. I have had some very gust and strong south winds today.

 

Screen Shot 2020-01-14 at 11.18.55 AM.png

See above.

[Jesse]

Most def.

I hate to say it, but as narrative crushing as it may be, there is a better than bad chance PDX scores it’s lowest daily mean of the winter so far tomorrow.

[Deweydog]

I hate to say it, but as narrative crushing as it may be, there is a better than bad chance PDX scores it’s lowest daily mean of the winter so far tomorrow.

Yup. 26 will still be down there yelling “hello up there!!!”

[TT-SEA]

Only up to 32 back at home.

 

Let's hope in 10 mins the 18z NAM shifts everything 70 miles south and buries everywhere from Olympia to Everett. (Sorry Skagit Weather, MossMan... It's a dog eat dog world out there.)

It's going to move north to them no matter where it starts.

[Perturbed Member]

I have religiously followed the weather models for the past 3 weeks for our potential January event. I won’t even get one snowflake in Tigard in the end.

 

Oh well, I guess this is part of why snow events are so fun and exciting around here!

 

Yeah it's pretty brutal. Mother nature should factor in how hard we've worked on model riding when deciding our snowfall fate. A good reminder that even if 95% of ECMWF ensemble members think it will snow at least 6 inches in PDX in 96 hours, you can end up with exactly 0 inches. 

 

Most models not named the GFS look real aggressive with the WAA for tomorrow. I think it could even just start as rain in many places. 

[ShawniganLake]

Well... its in the 40s everywhere from Vanvcouver BC to Vancouver WA by late Thursday morning. So that is probably not snow if there is precip.

40s seem doubtful in Vancouver Thursday

[The Swamp]

I made it through the night topping out at 101.8

 

Nasty fever.

 

Ended up with 1" here in the swamp.  Pretty much it for this round of winter fun.

 

This next load, based on eyeballing the satellite looks to be even further north than what is modeled.

 

Someone up around Forks is going to score big time.

 

Stick a fork in the south sound.

[Bryant]

[TT-SEA]

40s seem doubtful in Vancouver Thursday

 

We will see... a strong low and strong SE winds would do the trick.   The ECMWF shows strong SE winds farther up the strait than just Vancouver.

 

[Blizzard777]

Pretty !

south winds gusting to 20 mph now

34*

27* dp

[runninthruda206]

We need that boundary to not get pushed too far north ..

[Blizzard777]

I made it through the night topping out at 101.8

 

Nasty fever.

 

Ended up with 1" here in the swamp.  Pretty much it for this round of winter fun.

 

This next load, based on eyeballing the satellite looks to be even further north than what is modeled.

 

Someone up around Forks is going to score big time.

 

Stick a fork in the south sound.

Washing my forks currently

 

One thing about the Flu, when you mend you feel like King of the World right after!!! 

[GHweatherChris]

Moderately snowing currently.

[Jesse]

Yup. 26 will still be down there yelling “hello up there!!!”

It’ll be ok. The January progression sort of caught me off guard this year too. I figured if we managed some cold it would have been of the ridgierier variety like in November.

[mtep]

Noob question: what (if anything) does this week/month's set up say about next month's weather? Is it possible to get another cold period before winter ends?

[Omegaraptor]

Noob question: what (if anything) does this week/month's set up say about next month's weather? Is it possible to get another cold period before winter ends?

 

It could happen. However, GFS after about 6 days looks splitty.

[The Swamp]

Noob question: what (if anything) does this week/month's set up say about next month's weather? Is it possible to get another cold period before winter ends?

yes

[Deweydog]

It’ll be ok. The January progression sort of caught me off guard this year too. I figured if we managed some cold it would have been of the ridgierier variety like in November.

Me too. Not exactly a dry side blockfest and the mountains look fairly healthy. Should keep some of the dramatic hand-wringing at least somewhat muted if things get warmer and drier later this year. One Tim is plenty!

[Omegaraptor]

[jakerepp]

Real nice shower right now. Big flakes!

[Jesse]

Me too. Not exactly a dry side blockfest and the mountains look fairly healthy. Should keep some of the dramatic hand-wringing at least somewhat muted if things get warmer and drier later this year. One Tim is plenty!

It’s been great to see ytd precip and snowpack slowly creep toward average. But that doesn’t mean you are off the hook from having to hear about the need for a hideously cool and wet spring. You know that.

[Codyjack]

Yeah it's pretty brutal. Mother nature should factor in how hard we've worked on model riding when deciding our snowfall fate. A good reminder that even if 95% of ECMWF ensemble members think it will snow at least 6 inches in PDX in 96 hours, you can end up with exactly 0 inches. 

 

Most models not named the GFS look real aggressive with the WAA for tomorrow. I think it could even just start as rain in many places. 

This is the second year in a row where ensembles showed within 3-5 days incredibly high odds that we would end up with "significant snow" in the Portland area....and both times...skunked.

 

I'm glad I didn't buy that snow shovel.  Saving my money for my retirement condo in Flagstaff.    

[Requiem]

GFS is really holding on, wow. Not a single other model shows even flurries for Portland tomorrow.

[Phil]

As, most likely, the resident Dodgers fan here, it gives me little solice knowing the 2 WS opponents we faced were in all likelihood cheating. They may have the "*" now, but still keep their trophies.

I’m a Yankees fan so I’m certainly biased, but there were so many “suspicious” swings from those two teams that you had to figure something was up before all this came out.

[Deweydog]

It’s been great to see ytd precip and snowpack slowly creep toward average. But that doesn’t mean you are off the hook from having to hear about the need for a hideously cool and wet spring. You know that.

Time will tell. I actually think this one will be pretty unsettled if we can manage a warmer February. We’re very dew.

[tjb723]

It's been lightly snowing in Silverdale for the past hour or two, small gentle flakes.

 

Temp up to 30.7 now from a low of 27.3 overnight.

 

Preparing to get buried tonight by another 4-7" as some models have shown, but I know how fickle these things can be.

[Deweydog]

I’m a Yankees fan so I’m certainly biased, but there were so many “suspicious” swings from those two teams that you had to figure something was up before all this came out.

WTH is a suspicious swing?

[Jesse]

Time will tell. I actually think this one will be pretty unsettled if we can manage a warmer February. We’re very dew.

INNER MORAL CONFLICT

[luvssnow_spokane]

Sun is out here, Partly sunny and shooting for maybe 35 or 36 today. Swamp is looking great!

[jcmcgaffey]

The old adage that snow storms trend north has been accurate with his whole period of cold/snowy weather

[Deweydog]

Screenshot 2020-01-14 at 11.46.36 AM.png

PDX Metro is certainly not 83% of average right now.

[Omegaraptor]

The old adage that snow storms trend north has been accurate with his whole period of cold/snowy weather

 

Pretty sure 2/24/19 and 4/7/19 proved it isn't always "trend north" or "trend south", it's "Screw Portland as hard as possible".

[Deweydog]

INNER MORAL CONFLICT

That’s right, let it out. We’re here to help and you’re among trustworthy friends.

 

Except Tim. And maybe that one other bro who’s always mad.

[Bryant]

Perfect illustration of how this week has gone so far.

 

That band has been sitting there for at least the past hour... 5 miles away from my house (mouse pointer).

 

Five. Miles.

 

I used to live in Maple Valley! Nice place, wasn't a fan of the winters though

[Requiem]

Pretty sure 2/24/19 and 4/7/19 proved it isn't always "trend north" or "trend south", it's "Screw Portland as hard as possible".

 

We'll have our time someday. Not this year, but some other time.

[wxmet]

Perfect illustration of how this week has gone so far.

 

That band has been sitting there for at least the past hour... 5 miles away from my house (mouse pointer).

 

Five. Miles.

 

If it makes you feel any better, Seattle is currently in between two bands instead of under them. Perfect illustration of how this week has gone so far.

[bainbridgekid]

Getting some pretty major dumpage here in Everett the last 20-30 minutes from a popup shower. Looks like we picked up another half inch in that time to go along with the 1" from last night and 5.5" Sunday night.

 

It's like a Winter Postcard out right now.