Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Look like the beginning edge of the system showing up on coast radar.

[Jesse]

I’m currently in beautiful Sunny Federal Way! 

 

Looks like here!

 

Goes to show why it's not always accurate to lump the whole Puget sound region together as "scoring" like we tend to do at times from the outside looking in. Lots of microclimate diversity up there with winners and losers too.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

18z colder Thursday night and by early friday morning the 516 line is to a out Seattle.

[Jesse]

I’m getting some big pieces of graupel here. Looks like styrofoam falling from the sky.

 

You didn't care about my graupel so I will not like this post. 

[Esquimalt]

Even the HRRR is now tapering totals way back and moving them further north.

 

Here is the latest run versus that 17z run Cliff Mass showed.

 

NWS will regret issuing that WSW for anyone south of Skagit, possibly Snohomish County.

 

Do you have the Kuchera GFS snowfall map? 

[OysterPrintout]

In his noon update Mark says we're doomed and hoped the GFS would cave this afternoon tonight. So far the 18z did not. If anything, the GFS has cruelly increased snow amounts here over the last 24 hours of runs.

[Jesse]

GFS sticking to it's guns on a Clark county special tomorrow night.

 

U'd be mad to hear that if you were leaving town tomorrow like we are, bro.

[Jesse]

[GHweatherChris]

Look like the beginning edge of the system showing up on coast radar.

Yep, and its currently following the same direction of the showers today, I am feeling good about my chances tonight.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

In his noon update Mark says we're doomed and hoped the GFS would cave this afternoon tonight. So far the 18z did not. If anything, the GFS has cruelly increased snow amounts here over the last 24 hours of runs.

 

6-8" for me on this map...In my dreams.

[MR. HEATMISER]

I'd forecast 1-3 for south of Everett. But if models are off by only 50 miles things will be different for better or worse.

I would forecast who the f**K knows!  I'm off this proverbial rollercoaster.

[SeanNyberg]

The details in the models over the past 48 hours show that they really struggle day of and give larger trends and provides a focus. But these hourly emotional rollercoasters people seem to go through with snowfall totals going up and down and east and west and forward and backward ... turn the models off, turn on the current radar and satellite, and just hang tight and watch.

 

The last few nights are perfect examples of fluctuating high res models being all over the place and none of them nailing anything. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS trending towards a low amplitude GOA ridge during the 2nd week of February with plentiful snow in the mountains. Sounds like our last 2-3 Februaries. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Still snow on the ground and 33 here in port orchard. Trees and ground are white here...only about 1". Looks like heavier amounts are not too far north of here.

You live in Port Orchard?

[Esquimalt]

A couple inches overnight tomorrow into Thursday for the Central Sound on the 18z GFS.

 

17 inches for me.  Please verify. 

[snowbustcity]

Here comes the sun....

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Followed by a Hood Canal/Kitsap special early Saturday morning.

 

Classic event here and very hard to predict amounts. With these powerful upslope events here most of the time the predicted amounts are to light.

[Deweydog]

[TacomaWaWx]

You live in Port Orchard?

No I'm going to be staying out here for the next couple days to have a better shot at snow lol. Not as good of chances in Tacoma.

[Requiem]

In his noon update Mark says we're doomed and hoped the GFS would cave this afternoon tonight. So far the 18z did not. If anything, the GFS has cruelly increased snow amounts here over the last 24 hours of runs.

Ouch...just put the model out of its misery I guess.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Looks like here!

 

Goes to show why it's not always accurate to lump the whole Puget sound region together as "scoring" like we tend to do at times from the outside looking in. Lots of microclimate diversity up there with winners and losers too.

Exactly, I did get about 1.5 inches snow all together but it had been beautifully sunny since 10am. Cool though but very little in snow. 

[HighlandExperience]

A couple inches overnight tomorrow into Thursday for the Central Sound on the 18z GFS.

 

Lol

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Seems like a lot of clearing around. Might help a lot of Willamette Valley locations hit FREEZING this evening. 

[Jesse]

I wouldn’t worry. That’s definitely not happening.

Famous Matt’s words!

[luvssnow_spokane]

18z wants to keep a tad and notch colder a little longer... NOT that I believe it. GFS as been out to lunch on snow and temps.

[Blizzard777]

Looks like here!

 

Goes to show why it's not always accurate to lump the whole Puget sound region together as "scoring" like we tend to do at times from the outside looking in. Lots of microclimate diversity up there with winners and losers too.

I was lucky enough to at least get some light snow past 24 hours.  Snow total for my location for the two events just under a half inch . Both melted off very quickly after day break

can't complain 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like I am looking at a typical rain to snow transition up here tomorrow night into Thursday morning as rain switches to snow in the cold onshore flow. 

[Deweydog]

Famous Matt’s words!

Seriously though, the GFS has shown clearly it has no clue regarding surface temps. At best this is gonna be some sloppy accumulation. The 18z is finally looking closer showing temps into low 30’s as opposed to yesterday when it showed mid 20’s tomorrow night with moderate precip.

[Jesse]

Seriously though, the GFS has shown clearly it has no clue regarding surface temps. At best this is gonna be some sloppy accumulation. The 18z is finally looking closer showing temps into low 30’s as opposed to yesterday when it showed mid 20’s tomorrow night with moderate precip.

I dunno. Seems it’s tracking better with the low level intrusion of cold into the basin better than the Euro so far.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like light west winds have finally broken through at The Dalles. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking wintery at only 900' east of Salem. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mount Hood snow pack now up to 90%. 

[TT-SEA]

Mount Hood snow pack now up to 90%. 

 

 

Have to imagine Snoqualmie Pass is doing well now... after picking up just about 10 feet of snow in the first 2 weeks of January. 

[jakerepp]

My phone doesn't think we've gotten above 28 here all day. 

[Deweydog]

I dunno. Seems it’s tracking better with the low level intrusion of cold into the basin better than the Euro so far.

It’s still gonna take a hit but yeah the Euro was probably too warm. That’s about the only thing going for us right now but there also isn’t an efficient conduit to that cold, relative to a true outflow situation. It’s pretty clear the GFS is still overestimating that dynamic. Best case is probably a wet inch or two.

[Jesse]

It’s still gonna take a hit but yeah the Euro was probably too warm. That’s about the only thing going for us right now but there also isn’t an efficient conduit to that cold, relative to a true outflow situation. It’s pretty clear the GFS is still overestimating that dynamic. Best case is probably a wet inch or two.

Thyme well till!

 

Obviously I’d feel a lot better about missing that, but I will still root for the Portland metro to see a decent event.

[Chowders]

I'm a long time lurker and follower and thought I would join.  I'm feeling the same as the others in the south end, esp from Maple-Valley and Covington!!   Wish we had more snow, but I can't complain.  It was very pretty this morning, even with just a light dusting of an inch or two.  I recall reading that Snowmizer went to his cabin last weekend for snow, and I'm doing the same on Friday.  Should be plenty of snow in Winthrop, WA.  I decided to build a cabin where we get true winter weather consistently   Thanks to all for making this forum so informative.

 

[wxmet]

These model have been trying very hard (and failing) to predict central Sound amounts. We’ll be lucky to measure those amounts laying a ruler flat. I’ll be watching radar.

[runninthruda206]

These model have been trying very hard (and failing) to predict central Sound amounts. We’ll be lucky to measure those amounts laying a ruler flat. I’ll be watching radar.

Lol seriously all over the place. Definitely going to try and not pay much attention to them and wait for precip to come in

[weather_fan]

These model have been trying very hard (and failing) to predict central Sound amounts. We’ll be lucky to measure those amounts laying a ruler flat. I’ll be watching radar.

 

Yeah believing them for snow for more than 24 hrs in the future seems like the wrong thing to do. However, they did get it right with the cold, I know they were predicting teens for Seattle and all however they did get it right that it will get cold and today will be the coldest day.