Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[TT-SEA]

Sunny with melting snow in Maple Valley... while just a few miles north on the other side of Tiger Mountain its looks like North Dakota on I-90 at the Snoqualmie Ridge exit.

 

 

 

 

 

Live view from North Bend... at the same elevation as the first picture above.    No idea why you snow lovers down there did not pick North Bend if snow is that important to you.   

 

[jcmcgaffey]

The details in the models over the past 48 hours show that they really struggle day of and give larger trends and provides a focus. But these hourly emotional rollercoasters people seem to go through with snowfall totals going up and down and east and west and forward and backward ... turn the models off, turn on the current radar and satellite, and just hang tight and watch.

 

The last few nights are perfect examples of fluctuating high res models being all over the place and none of them nailing anything.

they seem to have been fairly accurate with the general location of snow. If anything they have been a little too aggressive on the amounts around the central puget sound.

[ShawniganLake]

17 inches for me. Please verify.

That shows 30” here. These totals seem a bit inflated.

[Deweydog]

Thyme well till!

 

Obviously I’d feel a lot better about missing that, but I will still root for the Portland metro to see a decent event.

F’n a...

 

I’m looking for reasons to think the GFS isn’t a cracked out version of its old self but it’s hard to find much more then crumbs.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Sunny with melting snow in Maple Valley... while just a few miles north on the other side of Tiger Mountain its looks like North Dakota on I-90 at the Snoqualmie Ridge exit.

 

 

 

 

 

Live view from North Bend... at the same elevation as the first picture above.    No idea why you snow lovers down there did not pick North Bend if snow is that important to you.   

 

Not everyone is rich?

[TT-SEA]

Not everyone is rich?

 

 

North Bend has lots of option in terms of housing.   Maple Valley is getting to be very expensive too.  

[wxmet]

So I'm thinking about starting a GoFundMe in order to raise enough money to buy the equipment needed to level the Olympic mountains. That way we have a direct access to the precip rolling in off the coast and can stop being bothered by all this 'snow shadow' crap. And since I don't live in the CZ area anymore, not really worried about losing that aspect.

 

Anybody want to contribute an initial $100? $1,000?

I thought I was the only one thinking this. Explosives should work.

[OysterPrintout]

F’n a...

 

I’m looking for reasons to think the GFS isn’t a cracked out version of its old self but it’s hard to find much more then crumbs.

 

I guess I'm reaching for that I don't really remember the GFS overstating the gorge influence before. I thought it was generally agreed that models under-estimated it.

[Thurston Howell III]

I thought I was the only one thinking this. Explosives should work.

I could borrow my dad's dozer.  I leveled about 1/2 acre with it pretty easily.  I'm thinking if we all level about an acre it wouldn't take long!

[Randyc321]

So I'm thinking about starting a GoFundMe in order to raise enough money to buy the equipment needed to level the Olympic mountains. That way we have a direct access to the precip rolling in off the coast and can stop being bothered by all this 'snow shadow' crap. And since I don't live in the CZ area anymore, not really worried about losing that aspect.

 

Anybody want to contribute an initial $100? $1,000?

 

 

How many days a year are you grateful for the rainshadow?

 

The Olympics are great, just in the way sometimes.

[TT-SEA]

Uhhh... I believe you liked my post last night indicating you wanted to change your ways.

 

This feels like the classic "Look at this Covington camera by Jim and how much it sucks versus my great location" post.

 

Also, I totally second Snowmizer's response. Not everyone can afford $900,000 for a 2 bedroom house.

 

 

This is not that... its a microclimate post.    

 

You can get a 3 bedroom house up here at my elevation for $300-400K.  

 

It was more of a North Bend is for snow lovers advertisement.    

[HighlandExperience]

[MossMan]

Just started snowing again. Too bad even I miss out tonight as well now.

[Thurston Howell III]

How many days a year are you grateful for the rainshadow?

 

The Olympics are great, just in the way sometimes.

Alright.  Maybe level em and put up a 6000' high retractable fence.  Keep it up for the summer and also put it up when we need the damming effect for big snow.

[wxmet]

This is not that... its a microclimate post.    

 

You can get a 3 bedroom house up here at my elevation for $300-400K.  

 

It was more of a North Bend is for snow lovers advertisement.    

Nobody is trying to buy a crack den in North Bend just to be in snow.

[OysterPrintout]

EPS but for North Bend home prices

[TT-SEA]

Most homes in North Bend at that price are mossy dumps. Probably worth 75K in the Midwest. You know your looking at a home around 750K minimum there these days

 

 

Mossy dumps.  

 

That is not totally true.   But its not totally false either.  

 

I think of Issaquah and Bellevue and Redmond as being ridiculously priced.   People are coming out here because its so much cheaper and most people don't like all the crazy weather... including snow.  But it is more affordable.

[TT-SEA]

Nobody is trying to buy a crack den in North Bend just to be in snow.

 

 

This made me laugh out loud.  

[luvssnow_spokane]

Sunny with melting snow in Maple Valley... while just a few miles north on the other side of Tiger Mountain its looks like North Dakota on I-90 at the Snoqualmie Ridge exit.

 

 

 

 

 

Live view from North Bend... at the same elevation as the first picture above.    No idea why you snow lovers down there did not pick North Bend if snow is that important to you.   

 

Maybe the cost to live there. 90% of never could afford it. I make good money but no way I could EVER afford a house there.

[Requiem]

I guess I'm reaching for that I don't really remember the GFS overstating the gorge influence before. I thought it was generally agreed that models under-estimated it.

 

GFS definitely used to, if I remember correctly.

[luvssnow_spokane]

This is not that... its a microclimate post.    

 

You can get a 3 bedroom house up here at my elevation for $300-400K.  

 

It was more of a North Bend is for snow lovers advertisement.    

Heck no you can't!!! Unless it is a total fixer upper.

[TT-SEA]

Maybe the cost to live there. 90% of never could afford it. I make good money but no way I could EVER afford a house there.

 

 

I think of North Bend as being sort of redneck and down to Earth.    North Bendnecks is the term people use here.   Its not like Snoqualmie Ridge or the Highlands.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I think of North Bend as being sort of redneck and down to Earth.    North Bendnecks is the term people use here.   Its not like Snoqualmie Ridge or the Highlands.

I found a house for a great price in north bend... Comes with natural A/C for the summer months and great views all around!!  Priced to sell!

[TT-SEA]

So, still rich but like... redneck rich? Interesting.

 

Not at all.  

 

Go downtown NB and hang out on a Friday night.   Its a small town bar scene with pick-up trucks and baseball caps and flannel shirts.   The complete opposite of Bellevue.   

[Deweydog]

I guess I'm reaching for that I don't really remember the GFS overstating the gorge influence before. I thought it was generally agreed that models under-estimated it.

When cold air is well-entrenched in the gorge and subsequently the valley the models almost always are too quick and too aggressive with scouring it out. The GFS, at least right now, is and has pretty vastly overestimated this cold air mass. According to the 18z, PDX should be around freezing right now, just for reference.

 

As for tomorrow, the gorge isn’t a huge factor. There just isn’t enough time or enough of a tap to get that machine cranking.

[MossMan]

Snow globe!

[TT-SEA]

I found a house for a great price in north bend... Comes with natural A/C for the summer months and great views all around!!  Priced to sell!

Screen Shot 2020-01-14 at 3.13.59 PM.png

 

 

That is a large lot to build... the house is irrelevant there.  It was destroyed by fire.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Latest HRRR finally realized the error in it's ways and came around to all the other models.

 

Only took about 12 hours after the 06z Euro.

 

I think where the models will struggle with this is how far north  and south from the center of the forcing the moisture extends. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Not at all.  

 

Go downtown NB and hang out on a Friday night.   Its a small town bar scene with pick-up trucks and baseball caps and flannel shirts.   The complete opposite of Bellevue.   

I know a guy that always has a flannel shirt on and has more money than a small town.

[runninthruda206]

Latest HRRR finally realized the error in it's ways and came around to all the other models.

 

Only took about 12 hours after the 06z Euro.

 

So now all the models are showing no snow for the sound?

[GHweatherChris]

Dumping snow and 32° with current cell.

[TT-SEA]

I know a guy that always has a flannel shirt on and has more money than a small town.

True. Can't judge anyone like that.

[GHweatherChris]

Radar is the only thing we need now.

[FroYoBro]

Not at all.  

 

Go downtown NB and hang out on a Friday night.   Its a small town bar scene with pick-up trucks and baseball caps and flannel shirts.   The complete opposite of Bellevue.   

 

You are completely missing their very obvious point.

 

They are talking about money. 

[MossMan]

So now all the models are showing no snow for the sound?

Correct. Skagit Co north now unfortunately.

[seattleweatherguy]

Correct. Skagit Co north now unfortunately.

 

Interesting we will see if that is correct if so i guess todays daytime snow was the last round...

[Deweydog]

Not at all.

 

Go downtown NB and hang out on a Friday night. Its a small town bar scene with pick-up trucks and baseball caps and flannel shirts. The complete opposite of Bellevue.

I make quite a bit of money and I have all three of those things. Multiples of two out of the three.

[snow maniac]

Been sunny all day here most of my dusting of snow is gone. Was hoping for some more but guess it’s not in the cards.

[GHweatherChris]

Up to 3 inches of total snow today.

[HighlandExperience]

Radar is the only thing we need now.

This is real time tracking now. No point looking at models in a dynamic situation a few hours away.