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I'm sure a lot are storm thread weary after such a dis-heartening bust with this weekend's storm but here we are with models agreeing on energy for another system with the complete array of p-types being advertised for this Sub. Models are bouncing around with strength of SLP and cold air mass in place prior to the system forming east of the Rockies. 12z suite took a favorable colder step for those further south but it looks like this will be another nail-biter for many of us. Let the model mayhem begin..

 

12z EC ENS would be a win for many of us south of 43N

 

20200112 12z EC ENS_snowfall_h186.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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3.8 to 4.0" and puking snow.

About 3.5".  

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rain

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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rain

 

18z ICON certainly is a Hot mess

 

20200112 18z ICON h120.png

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Oops on my post above..forgot ICON does not resolve/reflect any ZR/IP, so some of that over IA might be frozen messiness?

 

 

Disclaimer- 24hr maps below at h138 to eliminate contamination prior to this system.

 

Looking at the warmer, less favorable 18z GFS and comparing SLR to KCH for here, they both indicate about 5" (24 hrs to focus this event). That should mean 10:1 ratio "thump" snow. Then it rises above freezing and rains for some hours. 

 

20200112 18z GFS h138 24hr SLR snow.png

20200112 18z GFS h138 24hr KCH snow.png

 

Can clearly see on the KCH map how the colder air to the north fluffs up ratios and amounts nicely. 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I'm just not confident there will be enough cold air to allow for a solid thump here before it changes to mix/rain.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z GEM also portrayed a similar 4-5" front-ender before it brings a massive batch of rain. Not the best scenario, but in this lack-luster season I'd still take it for the few hrs of decent flakes. 

 

20200112 12z GEM SLR 24hr Snowfall h138.png

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I'm just not confident there will be enough cold air to allow for a solid thump here before it changes to mix/rain.

 

Yeah, per trends SMI's actually in a better position as that HP sinks SE in Canada keeping the cold around here just long enough (so far)

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Oops on my post above..forgot ICON does not resolve/reflect any ZR/IP, so some of that over IA might be frozen messiness?

 

 

Disclaimer- 24hr maps below at h138 to eliminate contamination prior to this system.

 

Looking at the warmer, less favorable 18z GFS and comparing SLR to KCH for here, they both indicate about 5" (24 hrs to focus this event). That should mean 10:1 ratio "thump" snow. Then it rises above freezing and rains for some hours. 

 

attachicon.gif20200112 18z GFS h138 24hr SLR snow.png

attachicon.gif20200112 18z GFS h138 24hr KCH snow.png

 

Can clearly see on the KCH map how the colder air to the north fluffs up ratios and amounts nicely. 

I'll take this! :D

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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My take is that it might go to briefly rain or drizzle early saturday morning b4 changing back to snow as much colder air rushes in.  But b4 that, several inches of snowfall falls. We will see!

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Oh yay, another January rainstorm. Maybe we'll even get a dusting of snow.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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I'm sure a lot are storm thread weary after such a dis-heartening bust with this weekend's storm but here we are with models agreeing on energy for another system with the complete array of p-types being advertised for this Sub. Models are bouncing around with strength of SLP and cold air mass in place prior to the system forming east of the Rockies. 12z suite took a favorable colder step for those further south but it looks like this will be another nail-biter for many of us. Let the model mayhem begin..

 

12z EC ENS would be a win for many of us south of 43N

 

20200112 12z EC ENS_snowfall_h186.png

If there was a time you would pick a pattern that had a chance to seed cold air into a system it would be this one. A 1040mb or greater HP to our norther may do the trick for our region. I’m sure we will see some shifts in the coming days. Need that High to not slide east so quickly.

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Not really concerned about surface temps; I think they will remain just above 32F or so for max on FRI here in C.IA. It's the 850 temps that are bit concerning and if guidance holds it would be another L over Iowa. Imagine that.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Dont know if it will make a difference or not this run of the GFS- but through HR 99- 850mb 0C line is further S than previous runs

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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13/0z GFS (again, 24 hr only!)

 

20200113 0z GFS h132 24hr KCH snow.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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00z Euro is much colder, keeps many of us all snow.

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

sn10_024h.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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As Hawkeye posted, the Euro is certainly coming in much colder as that strong 1042mb HP across Ontario is seeding a lot more colder air across the MW/GL's region.  This system sorta has that look of a classic CO Low but the pressure pattern is stretched out up into the Upper MW.  Now, if this thing would come out more tightly wrapped up we would be seeing another version of GHD-2 Blitz (2015 analog).  Let's see where the models take this system.

 

 

 

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Taking a look deeper into the GEFS/EPS, I'm seeing many members shifting South as the strength of the Canadian HP seems to be "pressing" as we get closer.  Positive trends over the past few runs.

 

GEFSMW_prec_meansnacc_162.png

 

 

 

GEFSMW_prec_snens_168.png

 

 

 

Woah, there was a significant southerly shift in the EPS members with about 50-70% of its members showing all snow from IA/N IL/N IN on north.  That's a pretty big sign that the models were under playing the strength of the Canadian HP just a couple days ago.  Hopefully these trends continue as we are getting inside 5 days.

 

We haven't seen to many systems where there is a massive Hudson Bay/Ontario Block in place to deliver and drive the cold, dense, arctic air into a system.  Took a glance at the EPS MSLP mean and it looks like its trying to "tighten" up the SLP as it ejects out of CO and takes a track almost due west/east towards the Lower Lakes.

 

00z EPS Snow mean trending S and also showing some very nice hits for the MW/GL's peeps.  I don't have access to Hourly snowfall total maps for the Euro Control like WxBell has, but I'll tell you that it is showing a widespread significant snowfall from E NE, IA, N/C IL, N/C IN, MN, WI and all of MI.  It even snows into N MO which is a big shift to a colder look.

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DMX buying into the Euro?.

 

 

Beyond this, all eyes are on the large storm system slated to

affect the region at the end of the week. Confidence in the

overall timing and general track of this system have increased

steadily over the last couple days, and it is fair to now say that

precipitation is very likely from late Thursday night into Friday

night, and relatively robust precipitation amounts are also

becoming more likely. What is less certain is precipitation type,

although the trend has certainly been toward colder/snowier

solutions, and also the portion of the region most likely to see

the heaviest precipitation. Thus while it is still difficult to

message the finer details, and certainly too easy to forecast

location-specific snowfall amounts with any confidence whatsoever,

what can be stated is that the potential for a winter storm to

affect parts, if not all, of Iowa around Friday is increasing. In

wake of this storm strong winds are likely to push in Friday

night/Saturday morning, potentially reaching advisory levels and

causing blowing/drifting in any areas that do receive significant

snowfall, and colder temperatures are again likely for the weekend

and into early the following week.

 

&&

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Clinton,

 

OMG...what just happened at Arrowhead yesterday? I think you said you were going to that game. I didn’t go but I will be going next week.

 

Spot a team 24 points and then go on a 51-7 run.....what? How??

Insane I'm still trying to recover!  How much snow did you end up with?

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Hope this thing cools off. I rather have less snow for myself if that means fewer people get ice. Ice is really bad news for everyone and you can't even have any fun with it.

 

Just a casual observation, but I noticed when we get precip and it gets warm after, we're in a bad pattern, and when it gets cold after we're in something good. The last few years have seen precip and then warmth to burn off all the snow. After this forecasted event, forecasted temps look to plummet. This reminds me of the 13/14 winter where we got snow, then brutal cold, then more snow. Hopefully, we can get some of that back.

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