jaster220 Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 I'm sure a lot are storm thread weary after such a dis-heartening bust with this weekend's storm but here we are with models agreeing on energy for another system with the complete array of p-types being advertised for this Sub. Models are bouncing around with strength of SLP and cold air mass in place prior to the system forming east of the Rockies. 12z suite took a favorable colder step for those further south but it looks like this will be another nail-biter for many of us. Let the model mayhem begin.. 12z EC ENS would be a win for many of us south of 43N 4 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 rain 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 13, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 rain 18z ICON certainly is a Hot mess Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 18z ICON certainly is a Hot mess 20200112 18z ICON h120.pngICON for the win. Lock it in. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 13, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Oops on my post above..forgot ICON does not resolve/reflect any ZR/IP, so some of that over IA might be frozen messiness? Disclaimer- 24hr maps below at h138 to eliminate contamination prior to this system. Looking at the warmer, less favorable 18z GFS and comparing SLR to KCH for here, they both indicate about 5" (24 hrs to focus this event). That should mean 10:1 ratio "thump" snow. Then it rises above freezing and rains for some hours. Can clearly see on the KCH map how the colder air to the north fluffs up ratios and amounts nicely. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 I'm just not confident there will be enough cold air to allow for a solid thump here before it changes to mix/rain. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 13, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 12z GEM also portrayed a similar 4-5" front-ender before it brings a massive batch of rain. Not the best scenario, but in this lack-luster season I'd still take it for the few hrs of decent flakes. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 13, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 I'm just not confident there will be enough cold air to allow for a solid thump here before it changes to mix/rain. Yeah, per trends SMI's actually in a better position as that HP sinks SE in Canada keeping the cold around here just long enough (so far) Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Not in the bullseye this far out so at least I have that working for me. 1 Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Oops on my post above..forgot ICON does not resolve/reflect any ZR/IP, so some of that over IA might be frozen messiness? Disclaimer- 24hr maps below at h138 to eliminate contamination prior to this system. Looking at the warmer, less favorable 18z GFS and comparing SLR to KCH for here, they both indicate about 5" (24 hrs to focus this event). That should mean 10:1 ratio "thump" snow. Then it rises above freezing and rains for some hours. 20200112 18z GFS h138 24hr SLR snow.png20200112 18z GFS h138 24hr KCH snow.png Can clearly see on the KCH map how the colder air to the north fluffs up ratios and amounts nicely. I'll take this! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 My take is that it might go to briefly rain or drizzle early saturday morning b4 changing back to snow as much colder air rushes in. But b4 that, several inches of snowfall falls. We will see! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Oh yay, another January rainstorm. Maybe we'll even get a dusting of snow. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 I'm sure a lot are storm thread weary after such a dis-heartening bust with this weekend's storm but here we are with models agreeing on energy for another system with the complete array of p-types being advertised for this Sub. Models are bouncing around with strength of SLP and cold air mass in place prior to the system forming east of the Rockies. 12z suite took a favorable colder step for those further south but it looks like this will be another nail-biter for many of us. Let the model mayhem begin.. 12z EC ENS would be a win for many of us south of 43N 20200112 12z EC ENS_snowfall_h186.pngIf there was a time you would pick a pattern that had a chance to seed cold air into a system it would be this one. A 1040mb or greater HP to our norther may do the trick for our region. I’m sure we will see some shifts in the coming days. Need that High to not slide east so quickly. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Not feeling too confident being on the south edge right now 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Not really concerned about surface temps; I think they will remain just above 32F or so for max on FRI here in C.IA. It's the 850 temps that are bit concerning and if guidance holds it would be another L over Iowa. Imagine that. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Oh yay, another January rainstorm. Maybe we'll even get a dusting of snow. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 F this winter 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Dont know if it will make a difference or not this run of the GFS- but through HR 99- 850mb 0C line is further S than previous runs 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Amazing how consistent the models have been with this one 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 ^^ they will go all different directions on Thursday.... 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 not watching weather this week...if it starts snowing Fri I'll stop in ad see what the hell is going on. if it starts raining I'll start laughing. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 13, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 13/0z GFS (again, 24 hr only!) 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Still showing a major ice event bleh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Interesting oax is going with snow likely Thursday night through Friday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 00z Euro is much colder, keeps many of us all snow. 6 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 13/0z GFS (again, 24 hr only!) 20200113 0z GFS h132 24hr KCH snow.pngDear God that is a tight gradient over here 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Please let this one go the European way. Rather be pummeled by snow than all the ice the GFS has! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Seems like it doesn't really get going until it's west of the Missouri Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 As Hawkeye posted, the Euro is certainly coming in much colder as that strong 1042mb HP across Ontario is seeding a lot more colder air across the MW/GL's region. This system sorta has that look of a classic CO Low but the pressure pattern is stretched out up into the Upper MW. Now, if this thing would come out more tightly wrapped up we would be seeing another version of GHD-2 Blitz (2015 analog). Let's see where the models take this system. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Taking a look deeper into the GEFS/EPS, I'm seeing many members shifting South as the strength of the Canadian HP seems to be "pressing" as we get closer. Positive trends over the past few runs. Woah, there was a significant southerly shift in the EPS members with about 50-70% of its members showing all snow from IA/N IL/N IN on north. That's a pretty big sign that the models were under playing the strength of the Canadian HP just a couple days ago. Hopefully these trends continue as we are getting inside 5 days. We haven't seen to many systems where there is a massive Hudson Bay/Ontario Block in place to deliver and drive the cold, dense, arctic air into a system. Took a glance at the EPS MSLP mean and it looks like its trying to "tighten" up the SLP as it ejects out of CO and takes a track almost due west/east towards the Lower Lakes. 00z EPS Snow mean trending S and also showing some very nice hits for the MW/GL's peeps. I don't have access to Hourly snowfall total maps for the Euro Control like WxBell has, but I'll tell you that it is showing a widespread significant snowfall from E NE, IA, N/C IL, N/C IN, MN, WI and all of MI. It even snows into N MO which is a big shift to a colder look. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 06z GFS... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 DMX buying into the Euro?. Beyond this, all eyes are on the large storm system slated toaffect the region at the end of the week. Confidence in theoverall timing and general track of this system have increasedsteadily over the last couple days, and it is fair to now say thatprecipitation is very likely from late Thursday night into Fridaynight, and relatively robust precipitation amounts are alsobecoming more likely. What is less certain is precipitation type,although the trend has certainly been toward colder/snowiersolutions, and also the portion of the region most likely to seethe heaviest precipitation. Thus while it is still difficult tomessage the finer details, and certainly too easy to forecastlocation-specific snowfall amounts with any confidence whatsoever,what can be stated is that the potential for a winter storm toaffect parts, if not all, of Iowa around Friday is increasing. Inwake of this storm strong winds are likely to push in Fridaynight/Saturday morning, potentially reaching advisory levels andcausing blowing/drifting in any areas that do receive significantsnowfall, and colder temperatures are again likely for the weekendand into early the following week. && 4 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 06z GEFS...another run where more members showing snow farther south... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 I like what DVN is saying but with 4 days out....a big one has to pan out eventually right? 3 Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 06z GEFS...another run where more members showing snow farther south...Wow I didn't think I could get in the game here, keep sinkin south baby! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Clinton, OMG...what just happened at Arrowhead yesterday? I think you said you were going to that game. I didn’t go but I will be going next week. Spot a team 24 points and then go on a 51-7 run.....what? How?? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Clinton, OMG...what just happened at Arrowhead yesterday? I think you said you were going to that game. I didn’t go but I will be going next week. Spot a team 24 points and then go on a 51-7 run.....what? How??Insane I'm still trying to recover! How much snow did you end up with? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 6z EC trending colder and further south. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Insane I'm still trying to recover! How much snow did you end up with? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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