MIKEKC Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 2.1 inches 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Such an expansive precip shield with this. That should allow for a decent hit for many regardless of where the low actually tracks. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Oh wow, nice to see this on the horizon! Already a 90% of precipitation on Friday?? Wow. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 13/0z GFS (again, 24 hr only!) 20200113 0z GFS h132 24hr KCH snow.pngBeautiful map. Near a foot for mby!!! 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Hope this thing cools off. I rather have less snow for myself if that means fewer people get ice. Ice is really bad news for everyone and you can't even have any fun with it. Just a casual observation, but I noticed when we get precip and it gets warm after, we're in a bad pattern, and when it gets cold after we're in something good. The last few years have seen precip and then warmth to burn off all the snow. After this forecasted event, forecasted temps look to plummet. This reminds me of the 13/14 winter where we got snow, then brutal cold, then more snow. Hopefully, we can get some of that back. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Even the ICON is coming in colder! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Having a snowstorm during daylight would sure be something for a change 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Even the ICON is coming in colder! And then turns into a rain storm for SMI of course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 GFS looking further south and colder thru 90 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Solid front end thump on the GFS, but the low does still track pretty far north and turns this to freezing rain/drizzle in Iowa. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 GFS brings the SLP right through Iowa, sure hope that shifts back south. Would be fun to get 4-6" of daytime snow, but I'd hate to see it wash away with rain. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 This is such a long duration event, it won't fit the whole sub in a 24 hour window, so here is total accumulation through the storm, but a lot of this in MN & WI is from other systems as well. But they do quite well with this one. I'd feel extremely confident if I lived anywhere in MN or WI northwest of Milwaukee. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 The GFS is definitely a bit older initially, but we still end up with rain. Nobody wants rain on top of fresh snow. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 13, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Beautiful map. Near a foot for mby!!! Thought I'd start a thread and bring some better luck. We sure need some after that disaster "Major" storm, lol. Going off of my twin-seasons theory, this one looked more likely to happen. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Canadian looking good. Coming in cold and further south with the SLP than the GFS. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Ukie appears further south than the GFS as well. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Thought I'd start a thread and bring some better luck. We sure need some after that disaster "Major" storm, lol. Going off of my twin-seasons theory, this one looked more likely to happen. Excellent idea amigo!!! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Ironically as the storm moves in 850s surge and then quickly fall back below freezing. Both the GFS and CMC show this. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 12z GFS mean 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 13, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 The GFS is definitely a bit ©older initially, but we still end up with rain. Nobody wants rain on top of fresh snow. Not ideal, and call me whacked, but as long as it's a cold rain (low to mid-30s) it normally wouldn't do too much damage to a dense snow fall. If given the choice, I would chose that vs lighter snow that blows away leaving bare ground spots. But, that's just me ofc. In a convoluted way, I wouldn't even mind it as a way to make a solid frozen glacier for additional snows to build upon. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 13, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 @ Clinton and 12z GEFS p12 for 2000$ (and the Double Jeopardy win) Alex 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 13, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Excellent idea amigo!!! Another thing to "like" about this system is how our temps will be as we go thru the week. While there will be a couple 40F+ daytime highs, we will get sub-freezing nights to keep that in check, and the day before I have a high (current forecast) of only 33F which means the ground should be decently cold(er) than the weekend torcher when it was 55F Saturday morning coming off days and days of mostly warmth. This should go a long ways towards keeping whatever amount we do get from just melting from beneath. Even if we flip above freezing and/or get some cold rain for a time. Much more positive outcome on the table with this one all the way around imho. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 13, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 TT site having issues for anyone? Not loading for me attm.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 @ Clinton and 12z GEFS p12 for 2000$ (and the Double Jeopardy win) Alex #2 is where it's at lol. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 13, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 My office play it conservative with the early am disco (as they should) - Stronger system Friday into Saturday -A consensus of latest medium range guidance (GFS/ICON/ECMWF/CMCand ensembles) continue to show potential for a stronger lowpressure system to move ene from the central Plains states andbring a wintry mix of pcpn Friday afternoon through Friday nightwith snow on the back side of the system Saturday. However it isstill far too early to get into more specifics. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 TT site having issues for anyone? Not loading for me attm..Do the same for me also. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Another thing to "like" about this system is how our temps will be as we go thru the week. While there will be a couple 40F+ daytime highs, we will get sub-freezing nights to keep that in check, and the day before I have a high (current forecast) of only 33F which means the ground should be decently cold(er) than the weekend torcher when it was 55F Saturday morning coming off days and days of mostly warmth. This should go a long ways towards keeping whatever amount we do get from just melting from beneath. Even if we flip above freezing and/or get some cold rain for a time. Much more positive outcome on the table with this one all the way around imho. Also, after this storm, it stays quite cold. BN temps each and everyday. That snow aint going nowhere. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 not going to get excited about this one until i see snowflakes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 GEFS looks much better than the OP for eastern Nebraska but is it counting sleet/ZR as snow? Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Like the look of the 12z Euro today so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 12z Euro coming in similar to 00z... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 a little further north this run overall. Brings just enough warm air into the south half of iowa to turn over to ice. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Actually it came in a bit stronger, thus pushing the 0C line up to the "cheddar curtain" around here...but the heavier precip has been shunted east by then. Nice "thump" snow from I-80 on North before a brief switchover to RN across N IL as temps warm into the low 30's. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Waterloo over 9" at 10:1 ratio. Wow 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 GEFS looks much better than the OP for eastern Nebraska but is it counting sleet/ZR as snow?Not sure oax is saying all snow currently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Madison, WI is a good spot to be this week. They may get an inch tonight, a couple more tomorrow night, then a biggie Friday/Saturday. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 12z Euro...I like where MKE is sitting as they will probably get a favorable SE/E wind off the lake for Lehs...temps aloft will be a lot colder than this past weekend storm which will aid in more snowfall. We saw how much the lake helped producing LES in a marginal set up. The warm lake waters will be your friend this time of year, esp with a strong arctic HP nearby. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Madison, WI is a good spot to be this week. They may get an inch tonight, a couple more tomorrow night, then a biggie Friday/Saturday. My parents live in Guttenberg, IA and i'll be heading there on Saturday. If we miss out down this way, it's looking like they won't up there, so at least I'll get to see some snow piles. I'm not gonna get worried 4 days out about the rain/snow line. Worst case scenario looks like we'll get a few inches on the front end at this point. It seems I-80 (give or take 30 miles) in E. Iowa is always the battleground for warm/cold air with winter storms. There must be a scientific reason why. It's incredible how often this is the case. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 12z Euro...I like where MKE is sitting as they will probably get a favorable SE/E wind off the lake for Lehs...temps aloft will be a lot colder than this past weekend storm which will aid in more snowfall. We saw how much the lake helped producing LES in a marginal set up. The warm lake waters will be your friend this time of year, esp with a strong arctic HP nearby.That’s one pretty map. Let’s just skip the rest of the week and make tomorrow Friday eh? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 IA/MN peeps will be in the deep freeze Sun-Tue as temps don't get above 0F for about 50+ hours thanks to a strong Canadian HP sitting right over head along with a fresh, deep snow pack. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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