Money Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 I def think I’m in a good spot here 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 That’s one pretty map. Let’s just skip the rest of the week and make tomorrow Friday eh?Just take the day off and work from home??? #FunFriday 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 12z EC 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 12z EPS mean 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 12z EPS meanLooking better down your way for at least a few inches??? Today's 12z EPS takes the SLP almost directly over N IL but most of the precip is out by then which will keep the snow accumulations higher. Thankfully, this system isn't the typical wrapped up storm with a defo zone, instead, it's looking more likely to be a widespread over-running/WAA system?? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 I like the EC better! Looks a lot like last nights Euro. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 +12" from Rockford on north. Sounds like a great week. Book it! Let's gooooo! 1 Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Looking better down your way for at least a few inches??? Today's 12z EPS takes the SLP almost directly over N IL but most of the precip is out by then which will keep the snow accumulations higher. Thankfully, this system isn't the typical wrapped up storm with a defo zone, instead, it's looking more likely to be a widespread over-running/WAA system??I think so too, it's going to be a close call down my way, I'll probably get more ice lol. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 +12" from Rockford on north. Sounds like a great week. Book it! Let's gooooo!Making up for lost time! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 I am right along I-80, need it to sag south a little 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 12z EPS meanBeautiful! 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticasnow Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Detroit afternoon discussion makes no mention of anything on the horizon for Friday...strange 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 ICON with a massive shift south, most likely trolling me! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 DVN already with 100% chances of snow Friday. That's pretty crazy. FridaySnow. High near 36. Chance of precipitation is 100%. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 ICON with a massive shift south, most likely trolling me! I digs pretty well and cuts north quick. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Hopefully like last year. Making up for lost time! Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 13, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 12z EC Somewhat confusing with all the Euro products you have at your disposal, but isn't the Control always more generous than the OP or even the ENS mean? Seems that way tbh. Also could be apples vs oranges as the time-frame on this one is 198 hrs which may include more than others you posted? Idk, just a challenge to parse all those, lol. At any rate, there are some heavy-hitters in the above individual members - whoa! As Stasch mentioned, it may be over-playing the moisture a bit?? @ Tom, feel free to comment as well, thx 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 13, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 My office's pm disco done by WDM, the only "known" pro-winter wx guy on staff there. Too bad he's younger and less experienced. Some good things he points out tho: - Next storm expected this weekend with lake effect snow behind itThe system that moves across our area early in the weekend looksto have a better chance of giving this area more snow than thesystem last weekend. That system had the primary upper jet come upthe front side of shearing out upper trough. This system on theother hand has the primary jet that is driving it diving into adeepening upper trough. The jet core will be well south ofMichigan by midday Saturday. Since the upper low does not closeoff until it is east of here, the storm will be developing as itmoves trough the area, not weakening as it shears out. As aresult there is much better model consistency with this system.The ECMWF and GFS have been consistently forecasting snow overmost of our CWA with this system. Nearly all the members of bothensembles (50 from the ECMWF and 20 from the GFS) show more than 3inches of snow with storm.Once the storm comes through we get lake effect into Sunday andthe coldest air we have seen this month so far. More than likelywe will actually see below normal temperatures for at least a fewdays behind this system, something that has not happened heresince the middle of December.Since this storm will be developing as it moves through there willbe a significant amount of wind with this storm 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Detroit afternoon discussion makes no mention of anything on the horizon for Friday...strangeYeah, for both of today's AFDs...even with 90% snow Friday night. Odd. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 The snow field looks so weird on the GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 GFS going to make it rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 ICON model never gets KC above freezing late this week. Mostly snow on this run. GFS still cold on the front end for snow/ice for 12 hours, but it has us surging into the 40’s Friday afternoon. How strong will that arctic high be and will the cold be stubborn to get out of here. Models have trouble with eroding cold air out, we’ll see what happens. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 GFS going north more. North...south...north...south... model flip flop. MN & most of WI remain golden on whatever model you chose as the over running moisture is so widespread everybody on here just about is going to get precip, it's just a matter of what form. Must be nice to never have to worry about rain/snow lines. We live and die by them down here in Iowa. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Wpc still saying snow here. I don't think they agree with the current model output Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Rainer and how much freezing rain? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 This thing is still likely to wobble north or south by the time it hits, so hopefully it's not too much further north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 Wpc still saying snow here. I don't think they agree with the current model output OAX grids just have rain/snow, but the forecast discussion mentions sleet/zr also possible. Weird. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 OAX grids just have rain/snow, but the forecast discussion mentions sleet/zr also possible. Weird.So odd here they are still going straight snow 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 18z GEFS... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 13, 2020 Report Share Posted January 13, 2020 MPX says models are probably overdoing precip amounts due to the system being an open wave vs a closed low. Seems legit. Double digit totals not likely from this storm. Although we may hit double digits for the week. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 MPX says models are probably overdoing precip amounts due to the system being an open wave vs a closed low. Seems legit. Double digit totals not likely from this storm. Although we may hit double digits for the week.Widespread 4-8” for you folks up north? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 14, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 18z GEFS... 18z definitely a step back from 12z for here. Seems the SLP is allowed to cut just a bit more as it comes towards/into Michigan. GFS has certainly slowed the progression over the last few runs: 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 14, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Looking at today's WPC hazards map, they must be buying that 18z GFS run, lol We finally begin to see "Hvy Snow" contours somewhere other than the areas already known as storm magnets, but they're giving a nod to Iowa, not the Mitt. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 14, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 On a side note, I narrowly missed a 32F or below day here. Temps for once under-performed (I think their call yesterday was mid-upr 30s?) as we hit 33F only and stuck there all day. Helps explain how so much of the scant snow/mix cover survived. Still on track for a pair of 40s but I see they've lowered my temps for Thur-Friday even more. From Wed night it's solidly below freezing right up til storm time Friday pm which is great news for this guy. Almost as exciting as the potential snow tbh. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 18z EC a tic north 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Widespread 4-8” for you folks up north?Seems pretty reasonable at this point. But like all storms, 96 hours out is a long way to go. Plenty of time for change. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 I really don't like where I sit for this system, especially currently. I feel that areas north of I-20 are in for the best snow, whereas areas south of there get 2-3" of snow, 1-2" of sleet and a little bit of ice. I don't really foresee rain due to that high pressure pumping cold, dry air in from canada, keeping the surface cold. But there's a long period of WAA aloft and I think models may actually be underdoing it. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Somewhat confusing with all the Euro products you have at your disposal, but isn't the Control always more generous than the OP or even the ENS mean? Seems that way tbh. Also could be apples vs oranges as the time-frame on this one is 198 hrs which may include more than others you posted? Idk, just a challenge to parse all those, lol. At any rate, there are some heavy-hitters in the above individual members - whoa! As Stasch mentioned, it may be over-playing the moisture a bit?? @ Tom, feel free to comment as well, thxI haven't noticed it being more generous. On the last storm it was better with the track than the op however they both tanked on accumulation. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Yeah I can't say I love where I sit either. Any snow we get is just gonna get immediately mutilated by rain. Obviously it's 5 days out and a 30 mile South shift would make a huge difference but if I get another rainstorm, I'm cancelling Winter. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 14, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 18z EC a tic north While models such as the 18z GFS Op went north and bring more rain/warmth, they are advertising a pretty strong SLP (12z Euro has 988 mb over Huron) and what that robs from the front side, they deliver via follow-on LES on the backside. Would prefer it trends back south a couple notches, but either way, should be one of the better events around here so far this season. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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