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Jan 17th-19th Rain/Snow/Mix/LES System


jaster220

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12z EPS mean

1579629600-UfPTfX5LYWM.png

1579543200-4eSyoOn5esY.png

1579586400-dNdgP698Duk.png

Looking better down your way for at least a few inches???  Today's 12z EPS takes the SLP almost directly over N IL but most of the precip is out by then which will keep the snow accumulations higher.  Thankfully, this system isn't the typical wrapped up storm with a defo zone, instead, it's looking more likely to be a widespread over-running/WAA system??

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Looking better down your way for at least a few inches???  Today's 12z EPS takes the SLP almost directly over N IL but most of the precip is out by then which will keep the snow accumulations higher.  Thankfully, this system isn't the typical wrapped up storm with a defo zone, instead, it's looking more likely to be a widespread over-running/WAA system??

I think so too, it's going to be a close call down my way, I'll probably get more ice lol.

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12z EC 

1579629600-smVBiTCscu4.png

 

Somewhat confusing with all the Euro products you have at your disposal, but isn't the Control always more generous than the OP or even the ENS mean? Seems that way tbh. Also could be apples vs oranges as the time-frame on this one is 198 hrs which may include more than others you posted? Idk, just a challenge to parse all those, lol. 

 

At any rate, there are some heavy-hitters in the above individual members - whoa!  As Stasch mentioned, it may be over-playing the moisture a bit?? 

 

@ Tom, feel free to comment as well, thx

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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My office's pm disco done by WDM, the only "known" pro-winter wx guy on staff there. Too bad he's younger and less experienced. 

 

Some good things he points out tho:

 

 

- Next storm expected this weekend with lake effect snow behind it

The system that moves across our area early in the weekend looks
to have a better chance of giving this area more snow than the
system last weekend. That system had the primary upper jet come up
the front side of shearing out upper trough. This system on the
other hand has the primary jet that is driving it diving into a
deepening upper trough. The jet core will be well south of
Michigan by midday Saturday. Since the upper low does not close
off until it is east of here, the storm will be developing as it
moves trough the area, not weakening as it shears out.
As a
result there is much better model consistency with this system.
The ECMWF and GFS have been consistently forecasting snow over
most of our CWA with this system. Nearly all the members of both
ensembles (50 from the ECMWF and 20 from the GFS) show more than 3
inches of snow with storm.


Once the storm comes through we get lake effect into Sunday and
the coldest air we have seen this month so far. More than likely
we will actually see below normal temperatures for at least a few
days behind this system, something that has not happened here
since the middle of December.

Since this storm will be developing as it moves through there will
be a significant amount of wind with this storm

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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ICON model never gets KC above freezing late this week. Mostly snow on this run.

 

GFS still cold on the front end for snow/ice for 12 hours, but it has us surging into the 40’s Friday afternoon.

 

How strong will that arctic high be and will the cold be stubborn to get out of here. Models have trouble with eroding cold air out, we’ll see what happens.

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GFS going north more.  North...south...north...south... model flip flop.  MN & most of WI remain golden on whatever model you chose as the over running moisture is so widespread everybody on here just about is going to get precip, it's just a matter of what form.  Must be nice to never have to worry about rain/snow lines.  We live and die by them down here in Iowa.  

 

 

snku_024h.us_mw.png

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Wpc still saying snow here. I don't think they agree with the current model output

 

OAX grids just have rain/snow, but the forecast discussion mentions sleet/zr also possible. Weird. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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MPX says models are probably overdoing precip amounts due to the system being an open wave vs a closed low. Seems legit. Double digit totals not likely from this storm. Although we may hit double digits for the week.

Widespread 4-8” for you folks up north?

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18z GEFS...

 

GEFSMW_prec_meansnacc_150.png

 

GEFSMW_prec_snens_144.png

 

18z definitely a step back from 12z for here. Seems the SLP is allowed to cut just a bit more as it comes towards/into Michigan. 

 

GFS has certainly slowed the progression over the last few runs:

 

20200113 gfs_comparison for 18z Sat Jan 19.gif

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Looking at today's WPC hazards map, they must be buying that 18z GFS run, lol

 

We finally begin to see "Hvy Snow" contours somewhere other than the areas already known as storm magnets, but they're giving a nod to Iowa, not the Mitt. 

 

20200113 hazards_d3_7_contours.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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On a side note, I narrowly missed a 32F or below day here. Temps for once under-performed (I think their call yesterday was mid-upr 30s?) as we hit 33F only and stuck there all day. Helps explain how so much of the scant snow/mix cover survived. Still on track for a pair of 40s but I see they've lowered my temps for Thur-Friday even more. From Wed night it's solidly below freezing right up til storm time Friday pm which is great news for this guy. Almost as exciting as the potential snow tbh. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I really don't like where I sit for this system, especially currently. I feel that areas north of I-20 are in for the best snow, whereas areas south of there get 2-3" of snow, 1-2" of sleet and a little bit of ice. I don't really foresee rain due to that high pressure pumping cold, dry air in from canada, keeping the surface cold. But there's a long period of WAA aloft and I think models may actually be underdoing it.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Somewhat confusing with all the Euro products you have at your disposal, but isn't the Control always more generous than the OP or even the ENS mean? Seems that way tbh. Also could be apples vs oranges as the time-frame on this one is 198 hrs which may include more than others you posted? Idk, just a challenge to parse all those, lol. 

 

At any rate, there are some heavy-hitters in the above individual members - whoa!  As Stasch mentioned, it may be over-playing the moisture a bit?? 

 

@ Tom, feel free to comment as well, thx

I haven't noticed it being more generous.  On the last storm it was better with the track than the op however they both tanked on accumulation.

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Yeah I can't say I love where I sit either. Any snow we get is just gonna get immediately mutilated by rain. Obviously it's 5 days out and a 30 mile South shift would make a huge difference but if I get another rainstorm, I'm cancelling Winter.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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18z EC a tic north

1579456800-moIx0hERcnA.png

 

While models such as the 18z GFS Op went north and bring more rain/warmth, they are advertising a pretty strong SLP (12z Euro has 988 mb over Huron) and what that robs from the front side, they deliver via follow-on LES on the backside. Would prefer it trends back south a couple notches, but either way, should be one of the better events around here so far this season. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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