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Jan 17th-19th Rain/Snow/Mix/LES System


jaster220

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Yeah I can't say I love where I sit either. Any snow we get is just gonna get immediately mutilated by rain. Obviously it's 5 days out and a 30 mile South shift would make a huge difference but if I get another rainstorm, I'm cancelling Winter.

 

Still wager KTOL sees more snow than this past weekend. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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MPX says models are probably overdoing precip amounts due to the system being an open wave vs a closed low. Seems legit. Double digit totals not likely from this storm. Although we may hit double digits for the week.

Agree with this. Even closed lows at this range are overdone with precip- unless of course- your getting rain it seems. If one compares the last two runs of the Euro (12 and 18Z) you can see less snowfall overall.

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Agree with this. Even closed lows at this range are overdone with precip- unless of course- your getting rain it seems. If one compares the last two runs of the Euro (12 and 18Z) you can see less snowfall overall.

I agree. You can see models are showing an enormous shield of precip we don’t often see with winter storms. And models are already starting to dial back qpf a little. I think where I am 3-6” is a best case scenario. Further north 4-8 or maybe 6-10” is on the table.

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Agree with this. Even closed lows at this range are overdone with precip- unless of course- your getting rain it seems. If one compares the last two runs of the Euro (12 and 18Z) you can see less snowfall overall.

Honestly I’ve been looking at the precip totals the last few days and not really thinking they look legit. You’re absolutely right that the previous closed lows generally haven’t produced snow amounts that match what the models had been showing. When in doubt, best to assume the lower end of the range will verify.

 

With that being said, it does look like a decent hit....for now.

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Funny NOAA office is not mentioning a word about this weekends potential snowstorm. They can be so annoying! :rolleyes:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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GFS is awful.  It's fairly warm, plus the precip shield continues to weaken with each new run.  Plus, it keeps shifting the surface low farther north.... now up to Minnesota.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Over the last four runs, the GFS has gradually transitioned to this depiction of an extension of the surface low up into Minnesota.  A day ago, the GFS looked like the other models.  I wouldn't worry about this unless you see it on other models.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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^^^ strange bouncing continues

 

Meanwhile, ICON shows E Neb crew some love and otherwise kinda janky with it's snow coverage. Seems to wrap-up just E of SMI into Huron (common theme) and gives some LES for far SWMI

 

20200114 0z ICON h144 Snowfall.png

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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GFS and CMC similar with placement of L at hours 84 and 90. Thermally  they are very close - CMC shows more snow where the GFS shows non snow.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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UK does not look like the GFS.

 

Models are slowing this system.  It had looked ideal for precip timing, with the snow starting near sunrise.  Now the models are trending toward an afternoon start.  Just watch.... this will probably end up starting just after dark in the evening again.  If that happens, I'll rip my hair out.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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This storm looks like it will be either rain or snow. Not much ice w this like last weekends storm.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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^^ could you post the UKIE?

 

There's not much to post that really tells anything.  I wish the UK maps included rain/snow.

 

This map shows the UK at the same hour the GFS has a low in sw WI.  That said, the UK still does push the surface freezing line well north, through Cedar Rapids and far southern Wisconsin.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2020011400_108_5660_149.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I’m not so sure about that with a 1044mb high drifting east from W Alberta into Saskatchewan. But, we’ll see.

That's typically a GFS bias of being to progressive.  It did the same thing with the last storm as well right around this range.  The worst case scenario is if the storm splits the HP to the N and cuts NW which systems have done earlier this season.  I will argue, however, that this late in the season it would favor a strong HP given the pattern evolving.

 

Meanwhile, I don't think anyone posted the 00z Canadian...

 

GDPSUS_prec_kuchsnow_141.png

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Been around the block a few times. Even though it's climo coldest time - I sense more ice/mix for those S of 43 Latitude in IA- it may snow in the first stages but much of that will be smoked by 34F and a -RA.

Hope I'am wrong. And why do I almost always "hope Iam wrong"?

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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00z Euro....a shift N across N IL but looks like mostly snow from the WI/IL border on N...both N IL/S MI switch over the RN on the Euro as it deepens and tracks thru MI.  I-80 on N in IA stays mostly SN from what I can tell.  The SLP tracks directly over Chicago this run while the Ukie is about 50-100 miles south.

 

00z UKIE takes a track from C MO/C IL/N IN/SE MI...it also strengthens as it heads up towards the GL's.  Hard to tell from the maps I got where the RN/SN line ends up but given the track of the storm it may suggest its farther South.  There was a new development on the Ukie as it is showing a 2-wave scenario.  The first being a widespread over-running event across E NE/IA/MN/IL/WI/MI and then it looks like the precips shield wants to form into a developed defo band across KS/MO/C IL/IN/MI as the storm takes shape.  Let's see if this is just a one run fluke or something to monitor.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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00z Euro....a shift N across N IL but looks like mostly snow from the WI/IL border on N...both N IL/S MI switch over the RN on the Euro as it deepens and tracks thru MI.  I-80 on N in IA stays mostly SN from what I can tell.  The SLP tracks directly over Chicago this run while the Ukie is about 50-100 miles south.

 

00z UKIE takes a track from C MO/C IL/N IN/SE MI...it also strengthens as it heads up towards the GL's.  Hard to tell from the maps I got where the RN/SN line ends up but given the track of the storm it may suggest its farther South.  There was a new development on the Ukie as it is showing a 2-wave scenario.  The first being a widespread over-running event across E NE/IA/MN/IL/WI/MI and then it looks like the precips shield wants to form into a developed defo band across KS/MO/C IL/IN/MI as the storm takes shape.  Let's see if this is just a one run fluke or something to monitor.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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I'am not buying the 4-6" the latest GFS and Euro show and for certain the CMC for C.IA. Trends are not good. Personally think WAA will win out and places in E.NE to C.IA will see mostly a mix. Another 1-3, maybe 2-4 event if that region is lucky. Would like to hear a rebuttal from others--- Golden is most of MN and C.WI. Just my .02. Prove me wrong but seen this situation to many times pan out to WAA at the best for E.NE into C.IA.

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I'am not buying the 4-6" the latest GFS and Euro show and for certain the CMC for C.IA. Trends are not good. Personally think WAA will win out and places in E.NE to C.IA will see mostly a mix. Another 1-3, maybe 2-4 event if that region is lucky. Would like to hear a rebuttal from others--- Golden is most of MN and C.WI. Just my .02. Prove me wrong but seen this situation to many times pan out to WAA at the best for E.NE into C.IA.

I agree with, at this point if we continue to see the SLP track N, you and I will see the best snows from the WAA for NE/IA into N IL/S MI.  The golden locals will be from MN into WI where the seasons magnet has been.  Unless we see a weakening of the SLP, the RN/SN will come N across IA/IL/IN/S MI as there is no way around it at this stage.  I don't see any way around it unless the Ukie wins out in terms of track.  I'll finish with this though, the 00z Euro Control is south in comparison to the Euro/GFS and similar to the Ukie.  

 

The spread is 50/50 per the EPS in terms of track.  The strong lows take a track into S WI/N IL while the weaker ones are into C IL/IN like the UKIE/CMC/Euro Control.  For those of us farther south, we may want to root for a weaker developing SLP.

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The GFS is going to win out with a N trend even though 06Z showed ok snows in C.Ia. I expect the 12Z package will advect in more warm air at 850mb (similar to 00Z) as it does take into account upper soundings. Don't trust 06 and 18Z guidance at this range

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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