james1976 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Really liking Des Moines morning discussion. All on board for potential heavy snow: Other than the aforementioned potential hazards...patchy dense fogthis morning and a possibility of freezing drizzle latetonight/early Wednesday...all eyes are on the winter storm slatedto affect much of the region around Friday. Only minor changeshave occurred in the expected evolution of this system since lastnight. The timing is slightly slower, only a few hours, andconfidence in precipitation type has increased with snow being thepredominant expectation. The warm elevated layer so prominent inforecast soundings last night is much more muted tonight, beingpresent more west and south of our forecast area, and forecasttemperatures are a few degrees colder during the day Friday. As aresult there is now relatively high confidence in widespreadmoderate to heavy snow accumulations across much of Iowa fromFriday through Friday night. However, confidence remains low inprecise accumulations and in the areas/timing of heaviestaccumulation. Will continue to gradually ramp up messaging of thisstorm as it will have a significant impact on at least portionsof the forecast area, but specific snowfall amounts and anyconsiderations of a winter storm watch will have to wait forsubsequent shifts. On the backside of the system, from Fridaynight through Saturday, there is still an expectation of strongnorthwest winds that may reach advisory criteria and will almostcertainly lead to some blowing/drifting of snow in areas whereheavy accumulations occur. Northwesterly mid-level steering flowis then anticipated for multiple days afterward, yielding aclassic set-up for a period of frigid winter weather with snowpack on the ground, which is a far cry from what we have seen sofar this winter. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Hopefully the high standing water from last weekend will have receded by then to allow room for this systems rain. Time to head back north it’s appears. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 MPX considered issuing a watch already but decided to hold off. From the morning disco: Ensemble and probabilistic guidance continue tohighlight rather high probabilities (>75%) of QPF amounts greaterthan 0.5" across most of the CWA, with the potential for higheramounts looking most likely across the eastern half of Minnesotaand west- central Wisconsin. Expect this precipitation to fallentirely as snow as forecast soundings look to keep anyprecipitation type issues south of the Iowa/Minnesota border.Little question weather it will snow across the CWA, with the realremaining question being how much and where exactly the heaviestamounts set up. As stated earlier, guidance has remainedconsistent in highlighting the heaviest QPF/snowfall amountsacross the eastern half of Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin sohave the highest confidence in the potential for significantsnowfall amounts of greater than 6-8" across these areas. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 14, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Iirc December 1st SLP actually slid by South of the Mitt due to blocking. Allowing for snow to fall unexpectedly farther south (just one county NW of here). At this later stage of winter I wouldn't expect it to be further north. The Low was north further west in Iowa tho and brought MSP mixing issues and much less snow than was forecast. I feel good about the more southerly track tbh. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 6z EC 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Up up and away north trends will continue today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Yup. Throwing the towel in here. Look for it to move more north. Quick burst of snow to rain here. NMI wins again. This pattern sucks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Unless ICON and Canadian are correct then I'm throwing in the towel as well. At least I'll be able to safely drive to Plymouth for a hockey game on Saturday. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Mild air. Bad teleconnections. Cold dump follows storm but wont matter after that. I'm sitting ok right now but I expect it to continue shifting north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 OAX finally caved going with mixed precipitation. Bleh I'm out in this one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 I’m thinking another incher for northern ia Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 #reversepsyhchology 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 12z NAM wants to ice me! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 My early guess for Cedar Rapids is 3 inches. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 #reversepsyhchology Normally yes but this winter is different. It’s been a bunch of suck fest 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 NAM NAM NAM! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Never and I mean never ever trust the nam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Never and I mean never ever trust the nam LOL! I know, but I couldn't resist. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 NAM NAM NAM! Storm is still going at that time as well. Nice to look at but yeah.....we'll see lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Never and I mean never ever trust the namYou can say that about any model after the last storm 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 12z ICON just did what the Ukie showed last night and trying to develop a defo band out in KS/MO into IL/MI 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 GFS coming in very similar to previous runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Icon is nice to us but being realistic probably won't happen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 GFS maintains an elongated SLP that covers all of iowa up to southern MN. Gonna have to be a lot further south to get the snowiest solution us Iowans are hoping for. Still a solid front end thumping of snow though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just stopping by...TWC has all snow from about the quad cities north through Fri night. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Is anything going to live up to its potential this winter? Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 You can say that about any model after the last storm nam was by far the worst Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 12z ICON just did what the Ukie showed last night and trying to develop a defo band out in KS/MO into IL/MIThe ICON is the only model that didn't predict high amounts of snow on the last storm and shows a track similar to previous cycles it should be watched IMO. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 GFS takes SMI out of it. On to to the next one. Yay more flooding in January. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 hard to get all the snow from this storm in a 24 hour window, but this is fairly close 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Run after run the TC is the hot spot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Has anyone looked close at thermals? I'm curious at about where it would would be all snow. Prolly highway 20 and north? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Even though the Euro is much further south with the SLP, the snow totals are about the same as the GFS. This will be a Twin Cities crush job yet again. Winter Storm Watches should be posted by this afternoon or tomorrow morning at the latest. Down here, we should get an advisory out of this, possibly a watch to an advisory. If we get 4-6" that's a pretty big snowstorm down here anymore. We have not received many > 6" snowfalls over the past 5 years. Maybe two or three. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 With the luck my part of Central Nebraska had with big storms in November and December, the tide has turned. Not looking good for this storm and the next week looks quiet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Canadian is still farther south, but the snow is less intense, totals lower. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Canadian and icon give us some love but they are usually hard to trust :/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 12z GEFS... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 GEFS looks like it would be a 3-5" system around here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 12z GEFS... Almost all of those are really nice hits for me 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Ukie appears to drop about .75" qpf on CR/IC in the cold sector before changing over to rain and/or ice. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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