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Jan 17th-19th Rain/Snow/Mix/LES System


jaster220

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We just got a WSW

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

251 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2020

 

...Winter Storm Expected Thursday Night - Friday...

 

.A mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will overspread the

region from south to north as a strong storm system approaches the

region. This will impact the Friday morning commute across the

Kansas City area as snow transitions to sleet, freezing rain, and

then to rain by the early afternoon. Further north, cold air will

linger longer into the day and the transition to rain will occur

much later in the day.

 

MOZ003>008-013>017-021>025-030>033-038>040-045-046-160500-

/O.NEW.KEAX.WS.A.0002.200117T0900Z-200118T0600Z/

Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-De Kalb-Daviess-

Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Clinton-Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-

Ray-Carroll-Chariton-Randolph-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Pettis-

Cooper-

Including the cities of Grant City, Albany, Stanberry, King City,

Bethany, Princeton, Mercer, Unionville, Lancaster, Queen City,

Greentop, Downing, Glenwood, Maysville, Stewartsville, Osborn,

Union Star, Clarksdale, Gallatin, Jamesport, Trenton, Milan,

Green City, Kirksville, Cameron, Plattsburg, Lathrop, Hamilton,

Braymer, Polo, Breckenridge, Chillicothe, Brookfield, Marceline,

Macon, La Plata, Richmond, Lawson, Carrollton, Salisbury,

Brunswick, Keytesville, Moberly, Odessa, Higginsville, Lexington,

Concordia, Marshall, Fayette, Glasgow, New Franklin, Sedalia,

and Boonville

251 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2020

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH

FRIDAY EVENING...

 

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow

accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of up to

two tenths of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high as 35

mph.

 

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northeast,

northwest and west central Missouri.

 

* WHEN...From late Thursday night through Friday evening.

 

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous

conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The transition to rain will occur much

later in the day, especially further north and east along the

Iowa and Missouri state line.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

BooRAH!  Great news buddy!  This one's coming together I think - cold gonna show up to play for once!  :)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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NAMGL_prec_snow_084.png.12f090a751dbdb3a

:D

 

And that's only thru 1 am Sat night. LES should be kicking in during/after that period. 

 

Gonna be some winds on the backside. GRR gives us a "hint" 

 

A stronger event is looking possible for the weekend. For Holland

the GFS off of Bufkit shows the mixing height reaching into 40 to

50 knot winds Saturday Afternoon and Evening.

Thus a strong signal

for a gale event is shown.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Just gotta add how bizarre this storm looks to be.  The precip field looks more like a march storm than January.   When all is said and done I feel like the snowfall map for minnesota is going to look more like abstract art than the typical elongate bullseye.  

 

I had to look up the exact date, but this storm reminds me of a past snowstorm....Jan 3-4 2009 I was in MSP for a Wild game, a Saturday night.  That night was forecast 8-12" snow for MSP, my place on the mn/ontario border looked to be out of the snowfall completely.  What ended up happening was a couple of inches of wet snow early for MSP followed my mist and light sleet.  When I got home sunday night I found it had snowed 12"+ at home.  

I feel like this storm is going to play out similar for a few locations, which ones?  Let me get a map and a dart board... 

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And that's only thru 1 am Sat night. LES should be kicking in during/after that period. 

 

Gonna be some winds on the backside. GRR gives us a "hint" 

Get ready to get inundated from hvy snow bud!!!!!!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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IWX liking the LES signal..

 

all models hint at a prolonged lake effect set-up beginning Sunday and continuing through Tuesday.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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7-11” now in the point. MPX playing this well and not going with the inflated totals seen on some of the models. Haven’t paid attention at all until now but temps are below zero tonight -7F and then after the storm highs over the weekend are low single digits. Wind chill advisory for WC down to -25F.

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TWC is too heavy, too far south.  DMX's map is better than the earlier one, but it seems a bit odd to put Davenport and Mason City in the same range.

 

My expectation has not changed for Cedar Rapids.  I'm going with 2-4".

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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