jaster220 Posted January 15, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 We just got a WSW URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO251 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2020 ...Winter Storm Expected Thursday Night - Friday... .A mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will overspread theregion from south to north as a strong storm system approaches theregion. This will impact the Friday morning commute across theKansas City area as snow transitions to sleet, freezing rain, andthen to rain by the early afternoon. Further north, cold air willlinger longer into the day and the transition to rain will occurmuch later in the day. MOZ003>008-013>017-021>025-030>033-038>040-045-046-160500-/O.NEW.KEAX.WS.A.0002.200117T0900Z-200118T0600Z/Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Clinton-Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-Randolph-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Pettis-Cooper-Including the cities of Grant City, Albany, Stanberry, King City,Bethany, Princeton, Mercer, Unionville, Lancaster, Queen City,Greentop, Downing, Glenwood, Maysville, Stewartsville, Osborn,Union Star, Clarksdale, Gallatin, Jamesport, Trenton, Milan,Green City, Kirksville, Cameron, Plattsburg, Lathrop, Hamilton,Braymer, Polo, Breckenridge, Chillicothe, Brookfield, Marceline,Macon, La Plata, Richmond, Lawson, Carrollton, Salisbury,Brunswick, Keytesville, Moberly, Odessa, Higginsville, Lexington,Concordia, Marshall, Fayette, Glasgow, New Franklin, Sedalia,and Boonville251 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2020 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGHFRIDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snowaccumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of up totwo tenths of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high as 35mph. * WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northeast,northwest and west central Missouri. * WHEN...From late Thursday night through Friday evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardousconditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The transition to rain will occur muchlater in the day, especially further north and east along theIowa and Missouri state line. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... BooRAH! Great news buddy! This one's coming together I think - cold gonna show up to play for once! 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Winter Storm Watches, will fly... Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 15, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 And that's only thru 1 am Sat night. LES should be kicking in during/after that period. Gonna be some winds on the backside. GRR gives us a "hint" A stronger event is looking possible for the weekend. For Hollandthe GFS off of Bufkit shows the mixing height reaching into 40 to50 knot winds Saturday Afternoon and Evening. Thus a strong signalfor a gale event is shown. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Just gotta add how bizarre this storm looks to be. The precip field looks more like a march storm than January. When all is said and done I feel like the snowfall map for minnesota is going to look more like abstract art than the typical elongate bullseye. I had to look up the exact date, but this storm reminds me of a past snowstorm....Jan 3-4 2009 I was in MSP for a Wild game, a Saturday night. That night was forecast 8-12" snow for MSP, my place on the mn/ontario border looked to be out of the snowfall completely. What ended up happening was a couple of inches of wet snow early for MSP followed my mist and light sleet. When I got home sunday night I found it had snowed 12"+ at home. I feel like this storm is going to play out similar for a few locations, which ones? Let me get a map and a dart board... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 And that's only thru 1 am Sat night. LES should be kicking in during/after that period. Gonna be some winds on the backside. GRR gives us a "hint" Get ready to get inundated from hvy snow bud!!!!!! 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 15, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 IWX liking the LES signal.. all models hint at a prolonged lake effect set-up beginning Sunday and continuing through Tuesday. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Tom T Hall sang, "it sure can get cold in Des Moines." Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 https://youtu.be/jQHLD5Vvpzo Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Stupid weather channel,4-8" in Fremont, ne and Gretna, ne 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 And....down to 2-5”. Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 3k Nam which did better last system is painting a good picture (for what this system is) here in eastern Nebraska. The key will be an injection of warm air. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 18z GFS: 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 GFS went further south again and colder and this time even brings a couple inches of wrap around snow. About 5-6" front end and 2" back end for CR & IC areas. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 That's an interesting little area around Dubuque that gets less snow. Wonder what made that happen haha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Winter Storm Watch for most of the DVN CWA. Calling for 3-5" with .1 to .2" ice and strong winds. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Nice step in the right direction for the GFS. Didn't really look at the run so I'm not sure what changed. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 So the 330 disco from oax says the gfs being the warmest. The 18z said wait a minute. This going to come down to the actual event. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Weather channel snowfall map 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Weather channel snowfall mapJust got back home and flipped it on...that's a significant jump south since this am...and theyvwere south then! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 DMX lowered totals significantly. Which is the right call. That last map didn't make sense. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Hmm weather channel is going 4-8 here. Not sure if I buy that. 2-5 but depends on thermals. Either way the drive on Friday is going to be horrible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 7-11” now in the point. MPX playing this well and not going with the inflated totals seen on some of the models. Haven’t paid attention at all until now but temps are below zero tonight -7F and then after the storm highs over the weekend are low single digits. Wind chill advisory for WC down to -25F. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE Wisconsin Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Just have this feeling that this will turn into almost carbon copy of last weekends storm and a lot of people are going to be disappointed. Seems NWS here in SE WI has been trending downward with the snow totals, with a transition to rain by Saturday. Folks up in the Northwoods of WI and MN should do well - again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 TWC is too heavy, too far south. DMX's map is better than the earlier one, but it seems a bit odd to put Davenport and Mason City in the same range. My expectation has not changed for Cedar Rapids. I'm going with 2-4". Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 sref.pngThanks. I didn’t see this on the site. Appreciate the info! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Looks like maybe 2” here then rain. Hoping LES materializes, but they don’t sound too confident outside the immediate lakeshore. Oh well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Latest report. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 That's an interesting little area around Dubuque that gets less snow. Wonder what made that happen haha.Must be my house. 1 Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNTonka Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 The entire state of MN is under a winter storm watch. I can’t remember the last time I saw that. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 The entire state of MN is under a winter storm watch. I can’t remember the last time I saw that. I didn’t even see that the entire state is under the watch. Good stuff, neighbor! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 I honestly don’t know why anyone takes TWC seriously. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Gefs plumes for those interested https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/gefs_plumes/ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 The entire state of MN is under a winter storm watch. I can’t remember the last time I saw that.If nws still had a blizzard watch for a headline that would cover far NW MN. Wsw only has 2-6" accumulation, but 40+ mph winds. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 I honestly don’t know why anyone takes TWC seriously.Members of the general public who don't know any better. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 18z Euro will make many down my way happy 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Gefs plumes for those interested https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/gefs_plumes/For what this event is those are showing a solid 3-5 here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 For what this event is those are showing a solid 3-5 here.Famous last words 3 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE Wisconsin Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 18z Euro will make many down my way happyFor once, please verify! Can we lock this in now! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Famous last wordsLol it's so sad that I want snow this bad. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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