Jan 17th-19th Rain/Snow/Mix/LES System

[james1976]

Schnack has 3-7" area wide. TWC with 5-8. Neither mentioned much about mixing issues. DMX however has knocked back totals a bit cuz of mixing which is interesting cuz they acted like it would be all snow last AFD. Regardless it looks like a solid hit.

[gabel23]

So crazy; usually I'm talking about the platte river being the dividing line of snow to the north or south for my area. Now it's the Missouri river with this storm; anywhere along and to the east of the Missouri River valley looks to score a decent storm out of this one. Good luck to those to the east, looks like another storm that misses me. 

[jaster220]

Looks like maybe 2” here then rain. Hoping LES materializes, but they don’t sound too confident outside the immediate lakeshore. Oh well.

 

Dude! You live right on the beach or something? Where are you getting such pathetic numbers? Last weekend's storm? Might want to refresh your browser 

[jaster220]

18z Euro will make many down my way happy

 

Doesn't show much in MN for all the state to be under a Watch. What gives? How can that be accurate? My Mitt "homie" thinks we're getting nothing worth following, yet the Euro keeps showing twice as much snow as it's got in MN. Am I missing some asterisk or fine print at the bottom that says "snow fall over WMI is mostly for looks" 

[St Paul Storm]

Doesn't show much in MN for all the state to be under a Watch. What gives? How can that be accurate? My Mitt "homie" thinks we're getting nothing worth following, yet the Euro keeps showing twice as much snow as it's got in MN. Am I missing some asterisk or fine print at the bottom that says "snow fall over WMI is mostly for looks"

Most of MN is forecasted to get 6”+. That qualifies for a watch. But don’t forget that wind plays a factor into the watch decision. Gonna be possible blizzard conditions in part of MN that don’t get 6”. Hence, the watch was issued.

[jaster220]

  Snowy evening at Mackinaw..

 

 

 

[St Paul Storm]

0z NAM. Not bad for a lot of peeps.

[jaster220]

Latest report.

 

Beauty!  Have fun up there bud, and remember to invite others to your party. I missed the last one, but I'm really hopeful for an invite this time..

[Niko]

Dude! You live right on the beach or something? Where are you getting such pathetic numbers? Last weekend's storm? Might want to refresh your browser 

[jaster220]

0z NAM. Not bad for a lot of peeps.

 

NAM's actually been looking strong for this, and globals have stopped the bleeding imo, maybe even come south a bit wrt GFS today. For those of us getting the warm burst/dry slot sandwich, I can't help but compare it with how a hurricane has that calm when the eye passes over just to get slammed with the other end of the eye-wall. The backside on this is gonna have bite like we've not been used to around here at least. 

[Niko]

  Snowy evening at Mackinaw..

 

20200115 9 pm Snowy night at the Big Mack.PNG

Nice scenery!

[jaster220]

This...has been a long time coming!

 

[jaster220]

Nice scenery!

 

Yep, and coming to street lamps near you..

[Niko]

Looking at 4-8" here in mby.

[St Paul Storm]

Beauty!  Have fun up there bud, and remember to invite others to your party. I missed the last one, but I'm really hopeful for an invite this time..

Looks like you’re gonna do just fine with this one. You should receive the invite tomorrow! Ha!

[jaster220]

16.0z NAM says "what rain?" for SMI (prolly just some white rain) and once the backside flips over again, it keeps the flakes going another 15 hrs! 

 

In the over-zealous words of one character animated by a beloved fellow Mitt native.."To infinity and beyond!" 

 

[Niko]

16.0z NAM says "what rain?" for SMI (prolly just some white rain) and once the backside flips over again, it keeps the flakes going another 15 hrs! 

 

In the over-zealous words of one character animated by a beloved fellow Mitt native.."To infinity and beyond!" 

 

20200116 0z nam12km_ref_frzn_ncus_fh69-84.gif

Drizzle at the most after our snowfall, thats all. There will be no rain.

[St Paul Storm]

Wow.... is this model for real? This is the ‘true’ snowfall total? The Germans may want to upgrade their algorithms. If I only get 2” I’ll buy everyone a brand new snowblower.

[SE Wisconsin]

Wow.... is this model for real? This is the ‘true’ snowfall total? The Germans may want to upgrade their algorithms. If I only get 2” I’ll buy everyone a brand new snowblower.

it does seem that models are all over the place with the snow amounts.  Hopefully, for this weekend's storm, the models will be lower than what everyone actually gets instead of the other way around as was the case last weekend.

[jaster220]

^^^ ICON's on crack

 

@ Tom

 

Pound-town in Chi-town?? 

 

Tid-bit from the Met at LOT

 

The 00z NAM would indicate a wall of WAA precip during the late afternoon and evening and then dry slot with lighter rates 06z and beyond. Because of the support for heavy rates due to very strong isentropic ascent, dynamic cooling could in that case keep a bulk of the QPF as snow for much of the Chicago metro. The transition over to sleet and freezing rain would happen when precip rates lighten as the mid-level dry slot moves overhead.

[Madtown]

Thinking I stay all snow here and end up with 5-6" I still think this sinks farther south as has been the trend with many storms.going all the way back to halloween I believe

[Grizzcoat]

00z GFS seems to be coming in better for OMA area peeps-- first snow band looks better-- slightly but 850 s than go warmer than 18Z for IA

[Tom]

^^^ ICON's on crack

 

@ Tom

 

Pound-town in Chi-town??

 

Tid-bit from the Met at LOT

I flipped on the wx segment during the local news a bit ago and they showed the RPM model and it had all snow from I-80 on north in IL. It looked like the 00z NAM and suggesting very heavy rates after about 6:00pm with no switchover. It may be seeing a colder solution.

[snowstorm83]

So crazy; usually I'm talking about the platte river being the dividing line of snow to the north or south for my area. Now it's the Missouri river with this storm; anywhere along and to the east of the Missouri River valley looks to score a decent storm out of this one. Good luck to those to the east, looks like another storm that misses me. 

 

Yep, southeast Nebraska is one of the worst spots in terms of being in the path of storm tracks. Everything tends to miss us in every direction. At least you're far enough NW to have more snow than Lincoln I guess. 

[Stormhunter87]

OAX dragging it's feet on either an advisory or watch...

[Clinton]

21z SREF 

[NH4NU]

OAX dragging it's feet on either an advisory or watch...

 

My gut says they will issue an Advisory for Otoe/Richardson/Gage/Jefferson & possibly Lancaster ---- Watch for Sarpy/Douglas/Washington/Saunders/Cass on north along river. 

[jcwxguy]

My gut says they will issue an Advisory for Otoe/Richardson/Gage/Jefferson & possibly Lancaster ---- Watch for Sarpy/Douglas/Washington/Saunders/Cass on north along river.

I say watch for east of the river, advisory west

[Tom]

21z SREF

That snow map keeps trending South...let’s see what the Euro shows later tonight.

[NH4NU]

I say watch for east of the river, advisory west

 

 

I think that is a safe bet for sure! I also think that NWS is bored and radar"less" so why not create some buzz with a WSW? 

[Grizzcoat]

Something's definitely up. 18Z Euro for mby has .47" qpf all snow. 00Z GFS has .95"qpf, about 2/3 snow. That back band is much more robust on GFs and hopefully a trend

[snowstorm83]

I say watch for east of the river, advisory west

 

I was surprised they didn't issue one for the Iowa counties this afternoon. The gap looks strange. 

[Clinton]

That snow map keeps trending South...let’s see what the Euro shows later tonight.

I like it, the RGEM looks south as well.

[East Dubzz]

I don’t like the general trend of the models today / tonight. Not a massive improvement, but an improvement indeed.

[Niko]

0Z GFS looks awesome 6"+.........

[jcwxguy]

I like it, the RGEM looks south as well.

[hlcater]

The WRF suite is much colder than the GFS. They actually did fairly well with the last storm so I wouldn't discard them completely.

[jcwxguy]

00z GFS seems to be coming in better for OMA area peeps-- first snow band looks better-- slightly but 850 s than go warmer than 18Z for IA

[jcwxguy]

Canadian

[Madtown]