Jan 17th-19th Rain/Snow/Mix/LES System

[hlcater]

Honestly, the 00z suite as a whole is actually pretty good. Nearly every model is showing 4" with many showing 6". I'll put my first guess for CR at 4", with 0.10 ice and no rain as a result. I think the GFS is overdoing the WAA at the surface, especially considering the magnitude of the high preceding this system. All other models are colder. I do think we make 32-33, but in the dry slot.

[Stormhunter87]

Local Mets going 2-4 but still thinking rain. I believe that there will be a push of upper level warm air but surface temps will be hard to raise.

[Grizzcoat]

Uk doesn't bring 0C 850s or greater into 95% of Iowa. Of course it could between it's forecast hours but overall a very good sign

[Grizzcoat]

And all of E NE

[Grizzcoat]

Euro coming juicer... compared to 18Z in S>IA

[Grizzcoat]

at least in S.IA- snow field much further S

[Madtown]

Looks snowier for many, looks like the nam with all snow wrapping around

[Hawkeye]

00z Euro has a bit better snow farther south into southern Iowa and northern Missouri, but it also has less snow in general for areas farther north.

 

[Grizzcoat]

[Tom]

00z Euro...

 

 

[Tom]

Took a deep look into the 00z EPS members and there has been a noticeable shift South & West overall with the snow shield out near NE/N KS/N MO along with a decrease in snow totals across MN/WI/UP, while an increase in bigger hits throughout the state of MI.  Locally, there are more members showing 6"+ across N IL which was a surprise to see and the 2" snow mean has crept farther south in IL a touch.

 

00z Euro Control/EPS below...

 

 

[Tom]

03z SREF's...looking better for those of us on the southern end...

 

[Tom]

LOT's early take seems reasonable based on what the models are suggesting...

 

[Grizzcoat]

Somewhat surprised DMX went WWA cwa wide. The N imo should be warning. But maybe they wrote something about potential upgrades in the AFD which is still not out yet.

06Z GFS

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2020011606&fh=72&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=

[Tom]

Interesting comments from LOT suggesting the models may be to quick to push the 850's 0C line north due to dynamic cooling...

 

 

 

 

With the quick progression

of the upper wave and neutral tilt, the warm air aloft will be
penetrating into the southern CWA as the night unfolds. This nose
will probably have some difficulty racing northward given the
dynamic cooling going on across the northern half of the CWA. For
the most part, have the overlap of decent QPF and freezing rain
profiles along/south of I-80 between roughly 8 pm - 2 am. There
is a stronger signal than there had been of possibly sleet too,
which typically is short lived in a warm advection area oriented
like this, but at least mentioning it in the forecast. Confidence
on snow amounts south of I-80 is low given the potential to mix in
ice and temperatures slowly warming.

[Tom]

The GL's are wide open for LES potential...ONLY 5% of all the lakes are ice covered...that's gotta be close to a record low at this time of year...

 

[Stacsh]

My weather office is basically saying this storm is no big deal. 3-5 ending as rain with not much LES at all.

[dubuque473]

2-6” here. Could be one of our biggest storms this winter....sadly.

[St Paul Storm]

7-10” still looking good but I’d side with the lower end. Still pretty solid. MPX didn’t drink the kool aid on the eye popping totals. Good call imo.

[Madtown]

TWC this AM still going 5-8" almost everywhere. Mix line stays south of WI/IL line. They have freezing rain barely moving north of the IA/Missouri line.

[james1976]

Yeah and DMX says virtually all of IA will mix at some point which leads to slightly less totals. Still has 3-6

[Clinton]

6z Euro looks like a nice winter storm even down here.

[Stacsh]

Knowing my weather office, we will end up with a WWA for 3 days.  

[NH4NU]

12z HRRR appears to be coming in a tad bit more south and west. 

 

 

Aligning itself fairly well with NAM. 

[Grizzcoat]

RGEM-

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2020011606&fh=48&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=

[Niko]

This one is shaping up to be an impactful Winterstorm for SMI. All snow (no rain mixing in). Very good snowfall rates w accumulations looking very impressive. Trending more south as well.

[Niko]

6z Euro looks like a nice winter storm even down here.

There ya go bud...get those shovels ready!!

[St Paul Storm]

12z NAM still with a 11-13” jackzone for the TC. Looks like an ugly ice storm around I-80 in IL.

[Clinton]

There ya go bud...get those shovels ready!!

Looks like a good ole cement mixer here but I'll take it!

[Clinton]

3km NAM indicating sleet could be a problem, hope it's wrong.

[East Dubzz]

3km NAM indicating sleet could be a problem, hope it's wrong.

 

I'm sure it will be around here. Seems to be pretty standard procedure at this point with the bigger storms. 

[CentralNebWeather]

3km NAM indicating sleet could be a problem, hope it's wrong.

That shows 1.5" over my house.  Yuck.

[jcwxguy]

Twc for the fail

[Stacsh]

Twc for the fail

 

It's like they just use the most ridiculous model run.  No way 5-12" widespread snow covering 100% of 4 states and that far south.  

[GDR]

Watch Twc be right lol!

[bud2380]

I'm very skeptical of these high snow totals, mostly in Iowa, as most models are showing only about 6 hours of snow, maybe 8 hours in some spots.  The GFS for example is showing 4.8" of snow in Iowa City in 6 hours, and that is of course possible, but just seems unlikely to get almost 6 hours straight of .75"/hour rates or more.  We'll see.  

[East Dubzz]

I'm very skeptical of these high snow totals, mostly in Iowa, as most models are showing only about 6 hours of snow, maybe 8 hours in some spots.  The GFS for example is showing 4.8" of snow in Iowa City in 6 hours, and that is of course possible, but just seems unlikely to get almost 6 hours straight of .75"/hour rates or more.  We'll see.  

 

I usually take at least 75% of the total that it's showing to get a more accurate depiction of what will happen. 

[Hawkeye]

The NAM is more aggressive with the northward surge of the mix.  The 3k NAM is even more aggressive and only has four hours of snow here.  I hope it's overdoing it.

 

My expectation has not changed.  I'm going with 2-4" across the central and south.

 

Yeah, that TWC snow map is really overdone.  They aren't pulling it out of thin air, but I'm not sure what the source is.  The model consensus is certainly more conservative.

[East Dubzz]

TWC just sucks guys. That's all there is to it. 

[Madtown]

twc 5-8 here....nws says 4-7 in the morning afd. Accuweather says 6-10. Euro 6", nam says 2ish, GFS 4ish