Jan 17th-19th Rain/Snow/Mix/LES System

[bud2380]

Only a 6 hour window of snow here tomorrow. Hopefully it comes down hard in those 6 hours

[gabel23]

MKX AFD update 8:14pm

 

"The Winter Wx Advisory and snow totals look good for Fri aft-

Sat. Lake enhanced snow will occur over Sheboygan, Washington, and

Ozaukee counties with higher snow totals there. An upgrade to a

Winter Storm Warning may be needed given wind gusts up to 35 mph

and forecasted snow accums of 5-8 inches, but locally higher

amounts possible."

 

I'm really liking these trends.  Just keep them coming!

So weird seeing the WSW in Iowa, Minnesota, and South Dakota surrounded by the WWA for much of the rest of the great plains followed by a random WSW for Wichita CWA. Will be interesting to see if any of the other advisory areas become warnings by tomorrow; Wichita upgraded about 15 minutes ago...

[jcwxguy]

03 rap

[Niko]

They are calling for 5-9"+ in isolated spots for Metro Detroit and 6-12" for mby Models are spitting out higher numbers, so they raised their accumulations.

[NH4NU]

Local forecasts for E Nebraska are so ambiguous it’s laughable at this point.

[jcwxguy]

Local forecasts for E Nebraska are so ambiguous it’s laughable at this point.

I've seen/heard anywhere from 1 to 6 inches lol

[snowstorm83]

Dean Wysocki has dropped the 3-5" down to Lincoln now. Rip us. 

[hlcater]

that’s Exactly my thoughts

Why??

[jcwxguy]

Dean Wysocki has dropped the 3-5" down to Lincoln now. Rip us.

[jcwxguy]

Euro (more for Nebraska)

[DSM WeatherNut]

Euro (more for Nebraska)

18Z seems like a pretty reasonable prediction on amounts.

[Tom]

00z Euro/Euro Control...here we go folks, it's game time...I'm hopeful to at least surpass the biggest snowfall of the season (3.4") from way back in late October on Halloween (sad).  Needless to say, unlike storms we have seen to hit my area this season, there is cold air prior to the storms arrival which will aid in quick snowfall accumulations on frozen ground.  I enjoy snows that fall on colder surfaces rather than on warmer ones where the pavement does not turn wet, but instead, the snow blows and swirls around.  I'll be driving to the city around rush hour so that should be fun.

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

06z NAM...

 

[Grizzcoat]

^^ 00 NAM (now fixed)

[Tom]

^^ 00 NAM

Corrected...meantime, Blizzard warnings have been issued for parts of IA/MN/SD...

 

 

 

[DSM WeatherNut]

Corrected...meantime, Blizzard warnings have been issued for parts of IA/MN/SD...

Boo 06Z NAM.  I was liking 00Z.   HRRR and RAP still look good for Central Iowa.

[Grizzcoat]

Most guidance has about a 17-18 MB pressure gradient over the state of IA at 12Z SAT. That 's impressive. I remember just like yesterday that the Great Blizzard of 2009 had 20mb when it was all said done. That gem had 55-60mph wind gusts. Me thinks most of the West/NW Central IA will be shut down in about 26 hours.

[Grizzcoat]

Boo 06Z NAM.  I was liking 00Z.   HRRR and RAP look good still for Central Iowa.

Been following like a hawk here at work. Long Range RAP even brings in some wrap around that may boost totals more than what NWS is forecasting. Also- if totals of both RAP and HRRR verify - I wouldn't be shocked to see Blizzard Warning expanded. I don't think the freezing rain forecasted is going to put much of damper on the blowing snow as one would think as several counties in IA are allready under Blizzard warnings and are forecasted to see SiG ICE.

[DSM WeatherNut]

Been following like a hawk here at work. Long Range RAP even brings in some wrap around that may boost totals more than what NWS is forecasting. Also- if totals of both RAP and HRRR verify - I wouldn't be shocked to see Blizzard Warning expanded. I don't think the freezing rain forecasted is going to put much of damper on the blowing snow as one would think as several counties in IA are allready under Blizzard warnings and are forecasted to see SiG ICE.

A nice surge of heavy snow developing nicely southeast of Omaha.

[Tom]

Radar trends are looking good showing deep moisture heading your guys way out west.  Should be a fun day out there watching the snow fly during the day time hours.

 

@ Grizz, wouldn't that be something if some of you can score a Blizzard Warning out of this storm??  It's been just over 10 years since that has occurred for DSM, correct?

[Grizzcoat]

Radar trends are looking good showing deep moisture heading your guys way out west.  Should be a fun day out there watching the snow fly during the day time hours.

 

@ Grizz, wouldn't that be something if some of you can score a Blizzard Warning out of this storm??  It's been just over 10 years since that has occurred for DSM, correct?

I believe we have had several since- but maybe not the actual city of DSM (Polk County) but i could be wrong on that. Certainly the surrounding counties . This I know- many people that spend most of their time in urban areas have NO clue what it's like in the country during a true blizzard. It's something to experience as long as your prepared and makes you appreciate shelter's , plows and places that are warm,

[DSM WeatherNut]

I believe we have had several since- but maybe not the actual city of DSM (Polk County) but i could be wrong on that. Certainly the surrounding counties . This I know- many people that spend most of their time in urban areas have NO clue what it's like in the country during a true blizzard. It's something to experience as long as your prepared and makes you appreciate shelter's , plows and places that are warm,

I do believe we have had blizzard warnings since, but I'm not sure they actually panned out in the Des Moines area.   I like south of Norwalk in the country in the 1996 blizzard.  We had 5-8 foot drifts covering long stretches of the North to South roads.  That was the most memorable and wild storms I can recall other than 2009.

[Minny_Weather]

Pretty sweet looking snow squall headed towards Lincoln.

[Clinton]

Sleet frz rain mix here, I should get above freezing around 4 or 5 this afternoon.

[james1976]

Planning on leaving work at noon today. I think its gonna hit hard when it arrives.

[Grizzcoat]

5 of the last 6 runs of the RAP have increased totals here in C.IA. The latest.

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc&rh=2020011711&fh=21&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

[Wxmidatlantic]

Pretty sweet looking snow squall headed towards Lincoln.

This is your Storm....

[james1976]

5 of the last 6 runs of the RAP have increased totals here in C.IA. The latest.

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc&rh=2020011711&fh=21&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

What's up with that hole in northeast IA into WI?

[Wxmidatlantic]

What's up with that hole in northeast IA into WI?

Dry air...

[james1976]

DMX said blizzard warning could be expanded but there may be enough ice to keep blowing snow limited a bit. This whole ice/mixed precip deal is irritating. Also only has 3-5" in their wording but the snowfall map on their site has widespread 4-6"

[james1976]

Dry air...

Shocker

[Grizzcoat]

Latest HRRR=

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc&rh=2020011711&fh=18&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=

[Minny_Weather]

Since we're taking an "all models count" approach here, RDPS keeps me as snow for all but a couple hours of the storm. 8.8" final.

 

[DSM WeatherNut]

5 of the last 6 runs of the RAP have increased totals here in C.IA. The latest.

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc&rh=2020011711&fh=21&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

Radar looks pretty solid for C IA.  About time to start nowcasting based on radar tracks. Moisture is flowing in pretty good in SW Iowa.

[DSM WeatherNut]

What's up with that hole in northeast IA into WI?

The big bad black hole in NE Iowa is showing up on most models now.

[james1976]

So when did dry air start becoming an issue? First I've heard about it

[Wxmidatlantic]

So when did dry air start becoming an issue? First I've heard about it

Artic air is dry. It takes a while to saturate the column. What keeps you dry now, will keep the snow later.

[Niko]

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI355 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020MIZ068>070-075-076-082-083-172200-/O.UPG.KDTX.WS.A.0002.200118T0500Z-200118T1700Z//O.NEW.KDTX.WS.W.0001.200118T0300Z-200118T1700Z/Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-Including the cities of Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor,Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe355 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOONEST SATURDAY...* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Peak snowfall rates up to an inch  per hour likely early Saturday morning. Total snow accumulations  of 5 to 8 or more inches by Saturday afternoon. Winds gusting as high  as 30 mph.* WHERE...Livingston, Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw, Wayne, Lenawee  and Monroe Counties.* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to noon EST Saturday.* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Visibilities will be  decreased in areas of heavy snow.

[DSM WeatherNut]

The dry air is definitely is squeezing the moisture out of the air to the southwest. 

[Clinton]

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI355 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020MIZ068>070-075-076-082-083-172200-/O.UPG.KDTX.WS.A.0002.200118T0500Z-200118T1700Z//O.NEW.KDTX.WS.W.0001.200118T0300Z-200118T1700Z/Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-Including the cities of Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor,Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe355 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOONEST SATURDAY...* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Peak snowfall rates up to an inch  per hour likely early Saturday morning. Total snow accumulations  of 5 to 8 or more inches by Saturday afternoon. Winds gusting as high  as 30 mph.* WHERE...Livingston, Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw, Wayne, Lenawee  and Monroe Counties.* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to noon EST Saturday.* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Visibilities will be  decreased in areas of heavy snow.

Good call by your office, your about to get hammered!  Enjoy!