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Jan 17th-19th Rain/Snow/Mix/LES System


jaster220

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Dicey for a few hours here in KC, but radiation is kicking in from the sun angle and roads are clearing up quickly with salt treatments. No snow at all and very little sleet. Pretty much all rain here which has been the majority of the storms in KC this winter.

 

Looks like more rain in KC for later in the week storm, hopefully someone is cold enough for snow. How come it couldn’t snow on Monday when highs are expected to be only 20??

 

Good luck to all wrt to snow!

 

It’s RED FRIDAY IN KC

 

Go Chiefs!

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Dicey for a few hours here in KC, but radiation is kicking in from the sun angle and roads are clearing up quickly with salt treatments. No snow at all and very little sleet. Pretty much all rain here which has been the majority of the storms in KC this winter.

 

Looks like more rain in KC for later in the week storm, hopefully someone is cold enough for snow. How come it couldn’t snow on Monday when highs are expected to be only 20??

 

Good luck to all wrt to snow!

 

It’s RED FRIDAY IN KC

 

Go Chiefs!

Still getting some decent snow here in Papillion, NE (where I am working today), eyeballing it, looks like around 2 inches of snow on the ground already with more to come.

 

It’s Red Friday here in Chiefs Kingdom north! So excited to watch the game on Sunday, wish I could make it down to Arrowhead for the game but will be watching from afar. GO CHIEFS!!!

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I continue to stick with 3-4" in Cedar Rapids.

 

Check out the ridiculous donut hole on the HRRR.  Snow geeks in La Crosse are thinking, "Seriously?!?".

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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yeah, i was wondering how long before the column saturates.   Probably considerable virga, but once that gives in, it should snow pretty good.  I'll bet it takes a solid hour or  more before we see snowflakes vs. when the radar starts to show returns.  

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06z NAM...

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

Both maps look great buddy! KCH takes me close to a foot including the backside! Laughable tho to see my region with potentially highest totals, yet the lamest of headlines and even in their morning TAF's update they wrote "a few inches of snow"   WUT???  

 

Good luck in scoring hitting your target. Mine is to exceed the past (3) WWA's (shoulda been warnings) of 7.0", and yes, I will include the backside LEhs which my office wants to treat as a separate event for some unknown reason. Beyond Sunday ofc it will be LES. If there's a break between, then I will consider that as separate from my storm total. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I got hit pretty hard early this morning; I was fortunate enough to stay under the heaviest band of snow for the entire duration. I went out and measured 4" of snow. Very unusual snow for my area; I don't recall a southeast wind/snowstorm. Drifting around my house and driveway was very different!! 

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Both maps look great buddy! KCH takes me close to a foot including the backside! Laughable tho to see my region with potentially highest totals, yet the lamest of headlines and even in their morning TAF's update they wrote "a few inches of snow"   WUT???  

 

Good luck in scoring hitting your target. Mine is to exceed the past (3) WWA's (shoulda been warnings) of 7.0", and yes, I will include the backside LEhs which my office wants to treat as a separate event for some unknown reason. Beyond Sunday ofc it will be LES. If there's a break between, then I will consider that as separate from my storm total. 

Good luck to you and your MI neighbors!  When I saw the models juice up yesterday for your state I had a good feeling you were about to get the best snows of the season.  Your looking good right now and so do the rest of the W MI posters.  I think the lake will be on fire late Sat-Mon.  Models have done a bad job 24-48 hours out handling Lehs/LES this year bc I believe their algorithm's are taking into account ice cover/colder water temps/etc which we know is clearly not the case.  Just look what happened over here last weekend when I was seeing LES showers in very marginal temps both at the surface and aloft.  Take a lot of pics!

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All sleet now. Looks like 3 inches and that wraps up the snow :(

Yeah it turned completely over to pingers here, however I am okay with the 3 inches of snow we got... we knew we would be riding the edge with this all week.

 

I originally expected that we would end up with mostly ice or rain, so in a lousy Winter I will take the snow that we got initially.

 

A little more concerned now about icing issues, especially with the strong winds with the front later tonight - could be some power outages around here if we get any icing.

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Yeah it turned completely over to pingers here, however I am okay with the 3 inches of snow we got... we knew we would be riding the edge with this all week.

 

I originally expected that we would end up with mostly ice or rain, so in a lousy Winter I will take the snow that we got initially.

 

A little more concerned now about icing issues, especially with the strong winds with the front later tonight - could be some power outages around here if we get any icing.

Yeah that is my biggest concern. We will be going to my BIL game and when we leave from the game has me worried. Also I was hoping for 4-5 but models have a terrible time with warm air. Ice storms are with out a doubt the hardest thing to predict these days.
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I am really surprised about almost every school here calling off classes today. I understand things will proably be bad for the drive home today, but snow won't start here until at least noon. An early dismissal may have been a better call.

 

Depends how early they can dismiss. Sometimes it's just better to cancel. 

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Grand Forks NWS bumped up my total from yesterdays forecast to 7-9" from 4-6" yesterday.

 

Someone was lamenting previously that they were jealous of "up north" because we don't have to worry about rain/snow line and mixing.  I am nearly on 49th parallel and still have freezing drizzle chances today in my point forecast...

 

Today
Snow likely, possibly mixed with freezing drizzle before 3pm, then snow likely between 3pm and 4pm, then snow, possibly mixed with freezing drizzle after 4pm. Patchy blowing snow between 2pm and 4pm. High near 21. South southeast wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Total daytime snow accumulation of around an inch possible.
 

Blizzard conditions are already starting in the southern red river valley from the current snowpack.

 

 
 

Capture-1-17.JPG

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Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI355 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020MIZ068>070-075-076-082-083-172200-/O.UPG.KDTX.WS.A.0002.200118T0500Z-200118T1700Z//O.NEW.KDTX.WS.W.0001.200118T0300Z-200118T1700Z/Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-Including the cities of Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor,Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe355 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOONEST SATURDAY...* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Peak snowfall rates up to an inch  per hour likely early Saturday morning. Total snow accumulations  of 5 to 8 or more inches by Saturday afternoon. Winds gusting as high  as 30 mph.* WHERE...Livingston, Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw, Wayne, Lenawee  and Monroe Counties.* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to noon EST Saturday.* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Visibilities will be  decreased in areas of heavy snow.

:D

 

Niko!!  Congrats my friend on scoring an invite to the "big dance". Many pre-season outlooks had SEMI in their jackpot zone, and so far wrt bigger storms, it's coming to pass. Should be legit event, and the kind I remember a lot of during my final years as a SEMI resident back in the 80's. Classic 5-9" thumper system with the high-moisture flakes that stack up nicely and plow into some stout parking lot piles too. Great stuff buddy!  :D

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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One thing GRR is finally conceding is the decent LES set-up down my way:

 

-- Lake effect snow showers to affect the area Saturday night into

Monday --

Where it does change over to rain, it will be brief as the low moves
east very quickly, and colder air is quick to rush in behind the
low. This will change precipitation back to some snow, and
eventually lake effect as sufficiently cold air advects in. The flow
regime ends up as W/NW, which would favor areas toward Ludington,
and between I-96 and I-94.
Additional accumulations will be expected
as the deep cold air on the cyclonic side of the upper jet will be
overhead, and overlake instability will be in the mid to upper teens
C. The lake effect potential will linger into early Monday
morning before it shifts offshore.
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Niko!!  Congrats my friend on scoring an invite to the "big dance". Many pre-season outlooks had SEMI in their jackpot zone, and so far wrt bigger storms, it's coming to pass. Should be legit event, and the kind I remember a lot of during my final years as a SEMI resident back in the 80's. Classic 5-9" thumper system with the high-moisture flakes that stack up nicely and plow into some stout parking lot piles too. Great stuff buddy!  :D

Thx Amigo. We are looking great for this storm! :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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