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Jan 17th-19th Rain/Snow/Mix/LES System


jaster220

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An impactful winter storm is expected to produce periods of heavy

accumulating snowfall for Southeast Michigan Friday night through

Saturday.

 

Nice write-up from NOAA Office:

 

Attention turns to the upcoming winter storm starting late Friday...

Upper-level dynamics fields continue to suggest the merging of

northern and southern streams of the split jet by 18Z Friday. This

will support the rapid intensification of the combined upper-level

wave as heights plummet and geostrophic velocities surge over the

Missouri basin Friday evening. The feature will induce rapid

cyclogenesis on the lee-side of the Rockies kicking a surface low

eastward as deep layer cyclonic flow ensues. Given the broad reach

of this system, the 925-850 mb layer will quickly become saturated

as efficient moist WAA converges up the Mississippi valley

characterized by strong low-level ThetaE advection rates (over

20C/12hr) across the MI/OH border after 00Z Saturday. The moisture

gradient remains very sharp along the affiliated warm layer such

that 850mb dewpoint temperatures will jump 25C in less than 3 hours

late Friday night as the event gets underway.

Shifting focus to amounts, SLRs appear to fluctuate near

climatological values (about 12:1) with the first round of snow.

Forecast soundings illustrate excellent supersaturation (wrt ice)

prior to 12Z across the southern counties. Given sufficient cold air

in place ahead of the moisture plume, a well aligned DGZ aloft will

work in tandem with efficient riming process to created large and

fluffy flakes overnight. Model QPF pushes liquid equivalent values

into the 0.75-1.00 inch range through Saturday evening

favoring periods of heavy snowfall as rates approach

the 1 in/hr mark. Deformation will play a two-fold role with this

event as the NAM depicts an initial deformation axis along the I-94

corridor followed by a second period as the low lifts north later on

Saturday. This will help further enhance areas of synoptic ascent

and mesoscale vertical motions to produce localized areas up to 8

or more inches.

:D

 

Wow! What an awesome AFD to wake up to, eh? Mine was lame by comparison. No prob tho, as long as all those model map are correct, lol. Peeked outside here at lunch hour and the sky certainly has that classic "winter storm impending" look to it. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I was thinking we would need some 2"/hr rates to hit the higher end of the range.  It's nice to hear that has occurred out by Des Moines.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Close to 2" hr rates in these heaviest bands. Vis 1/8 or less. Not a let down here, at least not yet.

 

B)  Total hotness!!

 

 

Good luck to you and your MI neighbors!  When I saw the models juice up yesterday for your state I had a good feeling you were about to get the best snows of the season.  Your looking good right now and so do the rest of the W MI posters.  I think the lake will be on fire late Sat-Mon.  Models have done a bad job 24-48 hours out handling Lehs/LES this year bc I believe their algorithm's are taking into account ice cover/colder water temps/etc which we know is clearly not the case.  Just look what happened over here last weekend when I was seeing LES showers in very marginal temps both at the surface and aloft.  Take a lot of pics!

 

Lehs/LES may just be rocking it!  Besides that tho, I can't remember when we had one of these "wall of white" starts to a snowstorm like the 17.12z NAM appears to indicate. I'm thinking it would've been one of the Dec '08 storms that pounded us overnight (like this) with about 7 or 8". I was asleep so didn't catch much of it, but that one was a pummeling of smallish flakes. I love the mention by DTX of larger fluffy dendrites. They really lower visibility compared to the pixie flakes. Going to be the funnest wx weekend since GHD-2

 

20200117 12z NAM12k h13.png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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While Des Moines is getting pounded I'm sitting under 20dbz with not a single flake. Storm will be outta before I saturate. Lol

 

It's always tough to see bright returns moving over you on radar, but nothing is hitting the ground.  It appears the snow is still an hour away from me.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Wow! What an awesome AFD to wake up to, eh? Mine was lame by comparison. No prob tho, as long as all those model map are correct, lol. Peeked outside here at lunch hour and the sky certainly has that classic "winter storm impending" look to it.

I was just outside thinking the same thing while cleaning up some of the leaves that were blown around from the last storm. I love it when the ground is frozen solid prior to an impending winter storm. The grayish cloud cover and chilly breeze certainly “feels” like a storm is a coming.

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NIKO in the sweet spot...

 

For part-1 he seems to be. We should get both parts tho by the looks of things.  :)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Yeah, Bud, I'm getting light snow now.

 

It’s unreal you can hardly see the neighbors it’s puking so hard

 

Where are you again?  You should add your location to your profile.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Wow! What an awesome AFD to wake up to, eh? Mine was lame by comparison. No prob tho, as long as all those model map are correct, lol. Peeked outside here at lunch hour and the sky certainly has that classic "winter storm impending" look to it. 

Indeed amigo. This storm also has some strong winds w it as well. I will be experiencing winds gusting to as high as 40mph along w hvy snow. Whiteout conditions could be happening at times.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Snowing good here with visibility under half mile. Probably started in the last 15 minutes. Finally got that cold dry air saturated.

Awesome bud!!! Hope ya score big!! ;)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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