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Jan 17th-19th Rain/Snow/Mix/LES System


jaster220

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Awesome I thought you might get there!

Hopefully LES today can take it there. :)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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And you were complaining about rain when we were tracking this storm....I'm glad to hear your area got hit good...

Me too, but in this pattern can you blame me? I’m more happy about the LES than the system snow. Just not the year for LES Much more enjoyable.

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And you were complaining about rain when we were tracking this storm....I'm glad to hear your area got hit good...

 

Ikr, that's all we heard. Meanwhile, I ended up with the rain, and almost zero of the LES. This is last winter with new lipstick  ;)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Me too, but in this pattern can you blame me? I’m more happy about the LES than the system snow. Just not the year for LES Much more enjoyable.

 

:huh:  Why's dat?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Bingo... Accu-weather hit total snowfall amts for my area spot on......

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/macomb/48042/winter-weather-forecast/20788_pc

 

20200117 12z Euro KCH Snowfall_h84.png

 

Idk what Accuwx showed for here since I no longer check their site. Ofc, I'm thrilled we finally got a nice spread the wealth (mostly) snowstorm. When I started the thread I really wasn't thinking "big snow", yet as we went through the week, trends were better and better wrt models and snow amounts were increasing to the point where run after run of the Euro was locked onto an 8-10" warning grade event here. However, including today's meager 0.3" LEFluff my total will be 5.8" (looking more like a solid 4" snow OTG thx to the 12 hr half-time show). Post-mortem analysis says 2 areas that I feel the Euro failed with (and they're actually related to the same root cause) are over-playing the front-end thump (turned to ZR sooner than even SR models were showing), and totally busted on any sig LEhS/LES down here along the 94 corridor. Most models showed this SLP getting it's act together and dropping as low as 989 mb's around Lk Huron. Instead it was more like several SLP's strung out S to N along the trough. Had there been a single stronger SLP, I feel that the better front-end forcing/rates would indeed have beaten back the rapid advance of the WAA, and delivered a much stronger LEhS on the backside as well. As it played out, the cold wasn't force-fed into SWMI as models were showing, it finally arrived only after the CF passed. I spent hours and hours at 34F and never experienced anything like models were painting wrt high snowfall rates and wind combination. The only thing that did play out when the CF passed was a classic LES on a WSW fetch benefiting those a couple counties north like Stasch. Not a complaint as I ended up doing at least as well as originally hoped, but the models (almost every one) again teased with a significantly snowier outcome than what resulted.  

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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:huh: Why's dat?

I’m a fan of the mystery of lake effect snow. I remember as a kid i went to bed with a forecast of 1-3 and woke up with 10+ with 2 ft drifts due to WSW winds and an arctic front. I enjoy the fluffy LES compared to the usual system snow. It’s rare we get under 28 degrees and drier snow with a big storm. The LP always seems to track near SMI.

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I’m a fan of the mystery of lake effect snow. I remember as a kid i went to bed with a forecast of 1-3 and woke up with 10+ with 2 ft drifts due to WSW winds and an arctic front. I enjoy the fluffy LES compared to the usual system snow. It’s rare we get under 28 degrees and drier snow with a big storm. The LP always seems to track near SMI.

 

Growing up in SEMI, I didn't even know what LES was until my older sis moved to Ludington circa mid-1970's. But, I only visited there maybe once or twice during winter during the 8 yrs they lived there. It was a long way to travel from SEMI to up there back in that era. Needless to say, there wasn't much if any LES where I lived and even here in Marshall, good quality LES doesn't happen too much. I like the staying power of synoptic snow and much prefer it for a base on which LES can fluff up and keep it looking fresh. I had the best of both worlds at my place in NWMI where 20" LES events did happen occasionally. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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