Jan 17th-19th Rain/Snow/Mix/LES System

[St Paul Storm]

General question..... anyone know if snow amounts on the SREF plumes are 10:1? Or maybe some other algorithm? Amounts on the 9z run are generally a bit lower than all the Kuchera inflated totals being shown. Just curious.

[jaster220]

I’m 39. I’m used to WSW only to wake up with a mix and severely disappointing snow totals. This will happen again 2” of slop.

 

GR's had a ton of great snow seasons (aside from last 3 ofc) in the past 2 decades. Were you not around for them? 

[bud2380]

General question..... anyone know if snow amounts on the SREF plumes are 10:1? Or maybe some other algorithm? Amounts on the 9z run are generally a bit lower than all the Kuchera inflated totals being shown. Just curious.

 

Looks like some sort of algorithm.  Because when I compare total qpf vs. snow they do not come out to 10:1, at least not for Cedar Rapids.  

[SE Wisconsin]

Wet, heavy snow followed by a little bit of drizzle or rain makes an absolutely fantastic snowmobile base. If we could get 8+ inches here and follow it up with around an eighth an inch of drizzle/mist it would be a great base that could deal with warmth very well. Once snowmobiles start packing down that sort of wet snow it turns almost into ice when it gets cool again, making the perfect base for snowmobile trails.

 

Sadly I'm so pessimistic about this storm I think we get 4 inches and then it rains and washes 2 of it away.

I would love to see that as well but I wouldn't be getting my hopes up.  The way the trends have been this winter I think it's likely we end up with 1-2 inches out of this storm, if that.  I would love to be wrong though.  My biggest fear is that this storm misses us to the north, then the cold air rushes in and all subsequent storms are suppressed to our south.  Seems like we just can't win.

[St Paul Storm]

Looks like some sort of algorithm.  Because when I compare total qpf vs. snow they do not come out to 10:1, at least not for Cedar Rapids.

 

Thanks Bud. Major laziness on my part. I suppose I could have done some quick math myself! Ha.

[bud2380]

Euro very similar to last run.  Looks a tad further south over by CHicago though.

 

[East Dubzz]

I would take that. Rainfall on the Euro seems pretty minimal, which would be preferable. Would be fine with the latter part of the storm drying up if that means minimal to no rainfall. 

[james1976]

Watches should be out with afternoon discos

[Tom]

12z Euro...I'd take 4" and run with it....as long as there is enough snow OTG when the cold comes I'll be content.

 

 

[Snowshoe]

I do enjoy a good snow map and perhaps a beverage as well.

 

[dubuque473]

Any picture on here must be hosted?

[Madtown]

12z Euro...I'd take 4" and run with it....as long as there is enough snow OTG when the cold comes I'll be content.

 

TWC is riding the euro all the way

[Tom]

The LES signal off the Euro is solid for SW MI (including Jaster) through midday on Monday!  Totals could really stack up and I'm sure the higher rez models will pick up on it as we get closer.

[BrianJK]

12z Euro...I'd take 4" and run with it....as long as there is enough snow OTG when the cold comes I'll be content.

Think after this thing fully passes through, we’re gonna be left with an inch of slop

[bud2380]

Monday morning looks pleasant....

 

[james1976]

Finally gonna have snow OTG for more than 1 day

[Wxmidatlantic]

For a storm that hasn't developed, it has a lot of weather types pulling their hair out from Midwest to Mid-Atlantic. Arctic breeze just coming into Des Moines...

 

 

 

[Stacsh]

12z Euro...I'd take 4" and run with it....as long as there is enough snow OTG when the cold comes I'll be content.

 

Amazing with the L almost going through the UP. 

[Nelson]

General question..... anyone know if snow amounts on the SREF plumes are 10:1? Or maybe some other algorithm? Amounts on the 9z run are generally a bit lower than all the Kuchera inflated totals being shown. Just curious

 

 

 

[Madtown]

I know nothing really, but why is the low track placed so much farther north than the clusters?

[Clinton]

15Z SREF mean trending colder, brings accumulating snow to mby.

[MIKEKC]

Tough forecast in KC...

 

First, how cold does it get here tomorrow morning and how high do temps recover tomorrow afternoon.

 

Second, do we get a few inches of snow prior to sleet and freezing rain switch.

 

Third, how high do temps go Friday and how late. The damage could be done(ice) before we warm up.

 

Arctic air can throw the data off on how quickly it gets out of here.

 

Clinton, I like the looks of the SREF for some front end snow!

 

Interesting Friday morning for KC. Too bad it has to warm up Friday, but that’s been this winter here. We don’t hold onto frozen precipitation on the ground more then 3 days.

 

Go Chiefs!!!

[Tom]

Think after this thing fully passes through, we’re gonna be left with an inch of slop

Temps don't rise much above Freezing, maybe a few hours in the mid/upper 30's before temps crash Sat afternoon...I think most of it will stick around.

[Niko]

15Z SREF mean trending colder, brings accumulating snow to mby.

Awesome bud, I really hope you score bigly.

[Niko]

This is looking like a hvy snowevent followed by some light drizzle at the end b4 the arctic air rushes in, along w LES bands that will be developing.

[Hawkeye]

Any picture on here must be hosted?

 

Can either link to the image url or download an image to your computer and then upload it to the forum and attach it to your post.

[bud2380]

18z NAM a little  heavier with the snow further south and obviously then colder.  

[Niko]

The 12z Euro is beautiful. Gives my area a solid 8".

[Clinton]

The 12z Euro is beautiful. Gives my area a solid 8".

Good luck! It looks great your way.

[bud2380]

NAM really shows this drying up as it heads east.  Drops over a half inch qpf in central and western IA, but then only about 1/3" in eastern IA.

 

 

[dubuque473]

Can either link to the image url or download an image to your computer and then upload it to the forum and attach it to your post.

Thanks. Having trouble posting from my computer, I should probably post in another section.

[East Dubzz]

NAM really shows this drying up as it heads east.  Drops over a half inch qpf in central and western IA, but then only about 1/3" in eastern IA.

 

 

 

You're right about it drying up, but I don't believe that is the entire storm total yet. 

[Hawkeye]

It's interesting that the 18z NAM keeps Cedar Rapids in snow throughout.

 

Edit:  The 3k NAM still brings mix up through Cedar Rapids, which makes more sense.

[james1976]

That NAM image above is only through 9pm Friday

[East Dubzz]

[jaster220]

The LES signal off the Euro is solid for SW MI (including Jaster) through midday on Monday!  Totals could really stack up and I'm sure the higher rez models will pick up on it as we get closer.

 

That's what I'm thinking. Lakes are still fully open like early December. Fetch will be critical for me way inland (as always the case). Somebody's gonna do real well tho. IWX's disco overnight sounded bullish, while my office the opposite (shocker, right?). These departing Lows with serious CAA are known to do well, especially with a decently low baro and strengthening system. Usually, it's a great sign if the globals are showing a good hit off the lake. SR's should be even better 

 

The 12z Euro is beautiful. Gives my area a solid 8".

 

It is sweet, isn't it? And I really think that it's the "middle of the road" solution between warm GFS and cold GEM. 

 

Seems WPC's buying it and stuck with yesterday's call for the Mitt:

 

 

 

 

Hazards:

 

- Heavy snow across portions of the Great Lakes, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Northern

Plains, Sat, Jan 18.

- Heavy snow across portions of the Northeast and the Great Lakes, Sat-Sun, Jan 18-Jan 19.

[Niko]

That's what I'm thinking. Lakes are still fully open like early December. Fetch will be critical for me way inland (as always the case). Somebody's gonna do real well tho. IWX's disco overnight sounded bullish, while my office the opposite (shocker, right?). These departing Lows with serious CAA are known to do well, especially with a decently low baro and strengthening system. Usually, it's a great sign if the globals are showing a good hit off the lake. SR's should be even better 

 

 

It is sweet, isn't it? And I really think that it's the "middle of the road" solution between warm GFS and cold GEM. 

 

Seems WPC's buying it and stuck with yesterday's call for the Mitt:

 

20200115 hazards_d3_7.png

Its awesome. Get ready, its coming amigo. Also, notice on the WPC map, that pink line has now shifted south of my area and has me in all "Heavy Snow"only. Woohoooo!!!!!

[Clinton]

Tough forecast in KC...

 

First, how cold does it get here tomorrow morning and how high do temps recover tomorrow afternoon.

 

Second, do we get a few inches of snow prior to sleet and freezing rain switch.

 

Third, how high do temps go Friday and how late. The damage could be done(ice) before we warm up.

 

Arctic air can throw the data off on how quickly it gets out of here.

 

Clinton, I like the looks of the SREF for some front end snow!

 

Interesting Friday morning for KC. Too bad it has to warm up Friday, but that’s been this winter here. We don’t hold onto frozen precipitation on the ground more then 3 days.

 

Go Chiefs!!!

We just got a WSW

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

251 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2020

 

...Winter Storm Expected Thursday Night - Friday...

 

.A mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will overspread the

region from south to north as a strong storm system approaches the

region. This will impact the Friday morning commute across the

Kansas City area as snow transitions to sleet, freezing rain, and

then to rain by the early afternoon. Further north, cold air will

linger longer into the day and the transition to rain will occur

much later in the day.

 

MOZ003>008-013>017-021>025-030>033-038>040-045-046-160500-

/O.NEW.KEAX.WS.A.0002.200117T0900Z-200118T0600Z/

Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-De Kalb-Daviess-

Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Clinton-Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-

Ray-Carroll-Chariton-Randolph-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Pettis-

Cooper-

Including the cities of Grant City, Albany, Stanberry, King City,

Bethany, Princeton, Mercer, Unionville, Lancaster, Queen City,

Greentop, Downing, Glenwood, Maysville, Stewartsville, Osborn,

Union Star, Clarksdale, Gallatin, Jamesport, Trenton, Milan,

Green City, Kirksville, Cameron, Plattsburg, Lathrop, Hamilton,

Braymer, Polo, Breckenridge, Chillicothe, Brookfield, Marceline,

Macon, La Plata, Richmond, Lawson, Carrollton, Salisbury,

Brunswick, Keytesville, Moberly, Odessa, Higginsville, Lexington,

Concordia, Marshall, Fayette, Glasgow, New Franklin, Sedalia,

and Boonville

251 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2020

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH

FRIDAY EVENING...

 

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow

accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of up to

two tenths of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high as 35

mph.

 

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northeast,

northwest and west central Missouri.

 

* WHEN...From late Thursday night through Friday evening.

 

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous

conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The transition to rain will occur much

later in the day, especially further north and east along the

Iowa and Missouri state line.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

[james1976]

Winter Storm Watches are starting to fly

[jaster220]

The LES signal off the Euro is solid for SW MI (including Jaster) through midday on Monday!  Totals could really stack up and I'm sure the higher rez models will pick up on it as we get closer.

 

Not sure why my office said the Euro-HR had "nothing" for LES then?? 

 

Otherwise, today's updated AFD was the most "positive" I've seen from them overall for this event

 

- Impactful storm this weekend

Model trends continue to show an impactful storm headed our way

for later Friday through Sunday. Satellite water vapor imagery

shows two waves...a strong one off of the WA coast and another

coming ashore on the Western Mexico coast. These two waves

combine as they move into the Great Lakes Region Friday Night into

Saturday. Gulf moisture will be drawn up with the southern stream

wave and cold air will be brought down by the northern wave. This

system has a lot of potential...especially with the upper level wave

going negatively tilted over the area upon it passage. With

potential QPF amounts nearing an inch...the burst of snow that

starts up Friday evening into Saturday morning could be the heavy

wet type. There is some signal of a mid level dry slot that could

arrive for a period on Saturday...but dynamics remain strong and

there is weakness in the stability in the mid levels...so the

moisture and precipitation could fill in. What the models do show

is the surface temperatures climbing above freezing during the

day on Saturday. That would limit any further impacts during the

day after the early morning snow winds down.

 

Wrap around moisture along with lake enhanced moisture could

support increasing impacts from the snow and falling temperatures

for Saturday evening into the night. In addition strong wind gusts

are looking likely for Saturday night. Sunday is looking like a

cold day with diminishing snow showers and possibly some slippery

roads.

 

- Cold start to next week with snow showers possible

 

We will have to monitor the forecast closely for Sunday Night

into Monday. The GFS is tracking down a stronger mid level wave

Sunday night from the Canadian Prairies. This would flare up the

snow especially in the lake effect regions.