hlcater Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Honestly, the 00z suite as a whole is actually pretty good. Nearly every model is showing 4" with many showing 6". I'll put my first guess for CR at 4", with 0.10 ice and no rain as a result. I think the GFS is overdoing the WAA at the surface, especially considering the magnitude of the high preceding this system. All other models are colder. I do think we make 32-33, but in the dry slot. 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Local Mets going 2-4 but still thinking rain. I believe that there will be a push of upper level warm air but surface temps will be hard to raise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Uk doesn't bring 0C 850s or greater into 95% of Iowa. Of course it could between it's forecast hours but overall a very good sign 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 And all of E NE 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Euro coming juicer... compared to 18Z in S>IA 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 at least in S.IA- snow field much further S Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Looks snowier for many, looks like the nam with all snow wrapping around 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 00z Euro has a bit better snow farther south into southern Iowa and northern Missouri, but it also has less snow in general for areas farther north. 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 00z Euro... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Took a deep look into the 00z EPS members and there has been a noticeable shift South & West overall with the snow shield out near NE/N KS/N MO along with a decrease in snow totals across MN/WI/UP, while an increase in bigger hits throughout the state of MI. Locally, there are more members showing 6"+ across N IL which was a surprise to see and the 2" snow mean has crept farther south in IL a touch. 00z Euro Control/EPS below... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 03z SREF's...looking better for those of us on the southern end... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 LOT's early take seems reasonable based on what the models are suggesting... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Somewhat surprised DMX went WWA cwa wide. The N imo should be warning. But maybe they wrote something about potential upgrades in the AFD which is still not out yet.06Z GFShttps://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2020011606&fh=72&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc= Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Interesting comments from LOT suggesting the models may be to quick to push the 850's 0C line north due to dynamic cooling... With the quick progressionof the upper wave and neutral tilt, the warm air aloft will bepenetrating into the southern CWA as the night unfolds. This nosewill probably have some difficulty racing northward given thedynamic cooling going on across the northern half of the CWA. Forthe most part, have the overlap of decent QPF and freezing rainprofiles along/south of I-80 between roughly 8 pm - 2 am. Thereis a stronger signal than there had been of possibly sleet too,which typically is short lived in a warm advection area orientedlike this, but at least mentioning it in the forecast. Confidenceon snow amounts south of I-80 is low given the potential to mix inice and temperatures slowly warming. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 The GL's are wide open for LES potential...ONLY 5% of all the lakes are ice covered...that's gotta be close to a record low at this time of year... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 My weather office is basically saying this storm is no big deal. 3-5 ending as rain with not much LES at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 2-6” here. Could be one of our biggest storms this winter....sadly. 1 Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 7-10” still looking good but I’d side with the lower end. Still pretty solid. MPX didn’t drink the kool aid on the eye popping totals. Good call imo. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 TWC this AM still going 5-8" almost everywhere. Mix line stays south of WI/IL line. They have freezing rain barely moving north of the IA/Missouri line. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Yeah and DMX says virtually all of IA will mix at some point which leads to slightly less totals. Still has 3-6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 6z Euro looks like a nice winter storm even down here. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Knowing my weather office, we will end up with a WWA for 3 days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 12z HRRR appears to be coming in a tad bit more south and west. Aligning itself fairly well with NAM. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 RGEM- https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2020011606&fh=48&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc= Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 This one is shaping up to be an impactful Winterstorm for SMI. All snow (no rain mixing in). Very good snowfall rates w accumulations looking very impressive. Trending more south as well. 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 6z Euro looks like a nice winter storm even down here.There ya go bud...get those shovels ready!! 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 12z NAM still with a 11-13” jackzone for the TC. Looks like an ugly ice storm around I-80 in IL. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 There ya go bud...get those shovels ready!! Looks like a good ole cement mixer here but I'll take it! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 3km NAM indicating sleet could be a problem, hope it's wrong. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 3km NAM indicating sleet could be a problem, hope it's wrong. I'm sure it will be around here. Seems to be pretty standard procedure at this point with the bigger storms. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 3km NAM indicating sleet could be a problem, hope it's wrong.That shows 1.5" over my house. Yuck. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Twc for the fail 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Twc for the fail It's like they just use the most ridiculous model run. No way 5-12" widespread snow covering 100% of 4 states and that far south. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 Watch Twc be right lol! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 I'm very skeptical of these high snow totals, mostly in Iowa, as most models are showing only about 6 hours of snow, maybe 8 hours in some spots. The GFS for example is showing 4.8" of snow in Iowa City in 6 hours, and that is of course possible, but just seems unlikely to get almost 6 hours straight of .75"/hour rates or more. We'll see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 I'm very skeptical of these high snow totals, mostly in Iowa, as most models are showing only about 6 hours of snow, maybe 8 hours in some spots. The GFS for example is showing 4.8" of snow in Iowa City in 6 hours, and that is of course possible, but just seems unlikely to get almost 6 hours straight of .75"/hour rates or more. We'll see. I usually take at least 75% of the total that it's showing to get a more accurate depiction of what will happen. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 The NAM is more aggressive with the northward surge of the mix. The 3k NAM is even more aggressive and only has four hours of snow here. I hope it's overdoing it. My expectation has not changed. I'm going with 2-4" across the central and south. Yeah, that TWC snow map is really overdone. They aren't pulling it out of thin air, but I'm not sure what the source is. The model consensus is certainly more conservative. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 TWC just sucks guys. That's all there is to it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 16, 2020 Report Share Posted January 16, 2020 twc 5-8 here....nws says 4-7 in the morning afd. Accuweather says 6-10. Euro 6", nam says 2ish, GFS 4ish 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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