Jan 17th-19th Rain/Snow/Mix/LES System

[Stacsh]

God Bless you accuweather.  You try.  

[Tom]

12z WRF models are still suggesting the RN/SN line to be south...

 

 

[Iowawx]

I am going to go with 3-5 inches of snow for Cedar Rapids. Every model shows at least 3 inches here. Some show as much as 8 inches. 

[East Dubzz]

I'm with Hawkeye - 2-4" seems about right.

[Tom]

09z SREF's...

 

[Clinton]

12z RGEM

[Clinton]

12z ICON

[Iowawx]

GFS appears to be a bit colder and stronger with front end snowfall in Iowa.

[Hawkeye]

12z ICON

 

The ICON keeps the mix well south, but it just craps out the snow as it moves into eastern Iowa.

[Iowawx]

12Z GFS.... I'd be very happy with this. 

[East Dubzz]

0.8" of QPF but only 4" of snow would be quite disappointing. 

[Clinton]

The ICON keeps the mix well south, but it just craps out the snow as it moves into eastern Iowa.

I wonder if it's picking up on sleet.

[snowman1]

12z NAM still with a 11-13” jackzone for the TC. Looks like an ugly ice storm around I-80 in IL.

 

 

   Your 2nd sentence has me nervous.

[Stacsh]

GFS will win out in SMI.   I'm expecting the lowest end snow totals forecast.  Maybe my weather office knows something.  

[CentralNebWeather]

I wonder if it's picking up on sleet.

NWS Hastings thinks sleet will be the biggest problem around here and they're not sure if Nebraska counties ever rise above freezing.  They think Northern Kansas counties will get over 32.   If you look at the GFS it brings up much warmer temps compared to some of the other models.

[Stormgeek]

The GFS on Pivotal has a local option for just the Twin Cities metro area. Cool! Still running cautious optimism here, hoping for 6+.

[Clinton]

NWS Hastings thinks sleet will be the biggest problem around here and they're not sure if Nebraska counties ever rise above freezing.  They think Northern Kansas counties will get over 32.   If you look at the GFS it brings up much warmer temps compared to some of the other models.

GFS is way warmer and faster than the other models.

[kush61]

Is there no one in this forum that lives East of Ohio ?

[Tony]

For Northern IL folks, I don't see too much snow from this system and once the rain comes most that has fallen will be washed away. WAA most always is under modeled and the way this winter has gone I see it winning out again. I hope I'm wrong but I don't expect much.

[Stacsh]

For Northern IL folks, I don't see too much snow from this system and once the rain comes most that has fallen will be washed away. WAA most always is under modeled and the way this winter has gone I see it winning out again. I hope I'm wrong but I don't expect much.

 

Agree.  I think the models are underestimating the changeover.  

[Tony]

Agree.  I think the models are underestimating the changeover.  

LES looking really good on the Michigan side so good luck to you guys...long time coming for sure.

[james1976]

DMX update is going 3-5" now area wide. Definitely going for the lower end of model output which is prolly the way to go.

[St Paul Storm]

The GFS on Pivotal has a local option for just the Twin Cities metro area. Cool! Still running cautious optimism here, hoping for 6+.

Nice find! That must be very recent.

[FV-Mike]

For Northern IL folks, I don't see too much snow from this system and once the rain comes most that has fallen will be washed away. WAA most always is under modeled and the way this winter has gone I see it winning out again. I hope I'm wrong but I don't expect much.

 

Is this a quote from a MET? or your thoughts?

 

Edit: Here is the counter thought from LOT this morning. 

It should be noted since we have had an active pattern,

specifically the larger system one week ago, that this upcoming

system has higher predictability in snowfall amounts than that

one on Jan 10-11. This is because of the character of the system

portion producing the snow...in this case a well-defined, well-

resolved warm advection aloft (WAA) area with ample moisture

quickly moving into an inherent colder air mass. A week ago it

was a stretched out system (in time and space) with a high amount

of upstream and nearby convection, altering mass fields just

enough to lend higher uncertainty.

[Stacsh]

LES looking really good on the Michigan side so good luck to you guys...long time coming for sure.

 

I hope so!  My weather office says the DGZ crashes to the surface so don't expect much accumulations though.  Who knows?  Usually they are too bullish on LES.

[bud2380]

GFS Kuchera totals

 

 

Canadian

 

 

[bud2380]

Model trend is much snowier down this way. I remain skeptical of these high of totals.  I'd be thrilled with 4".  If somehow we manage 5 or 6 that'd be gravy.  2" seems like a worst case scenario, so hopefully we avoid that.  

[Niko]

Looks like a good ole cement mixer here but I'll take it!

[james1976]

Yeah I even up here models are 6+ but yet DMX is now saying 3-5 area wide

[Tony]

Is this a quote from a MET? or your thoughts?

 

Edit: Here is the counter thought from LOT this morning. 

It should be noted since we have had an active pattern,

specifically the larger system one week ago, that this upcoming

system has higher predictability in snowfall amounts than that

one on Jan 10-11. This is because of the character of the system

portion producing the snow...in this case a well-defined, well-

resolved warm advection aloft (WAA) area with ample moisture

quickly moving into an inherent colder air mass. A week ago it

was a stretched out system (in time and space) with a high amount

of upstream and nearby convection, altering mass fields just

enough to lend higher uncertainty.

This is only my observation on this storm and basing it off of prior setups where WAA usually wins out. Now I believe the closer you get to the state line the better chances of accumulating snowfall as the WAA will be pushed only so far north and they might actually stay mostly snow.

[Minny_Weather]

I don't care how far down the totals move, I'm gonna have nothing on the ground come Sunday if it rains all day Saturday.

[jaster220]

My weather office is basically saying this storm is no big deal. 3-5 ending as rain with not much LES at all.

 

Perfect! expecting to get slammed

 

Knowing my weather office, we will end up with a WWA for 3 days.  

 

Totally agree on this ofc. When they get all hyped-up and go Watch/Warn, I don't get jack anyways. And having just busted hard on W/W headlines, we are likely stuck with WWA's the rest of our natural lives (only slightly j/k). The one thing going in their favor this time is the duration and the broken-up snowy periods and lull in the middle. Still, they are completely ignoring (attm anyways) the models that show high rates overcoming the WAA (just like yby experienced with the 12/1 version of this storm) and dumping dbl that 3-5" call just on the front end. At the very least, the front end will not need to over-perform by much to hit 6" in 12 hrs which should qualify for a Warning. Another point made last night by KLOT is that a 5" pounding of heavy wet snow and/or mix has the same of more impacts on roadways and traffic than say a 6" lighter snow falling over a 10-12 hr period. I've been making that point for years and it was refreshing to see that at least one Met at one NWS office "gets it" wrt true street level impacts. 

 

I hope so!  My weather office says the DGZ crashes to the surface so don't expect much accumulations though.  Who knows?  Usually they are too bullish on LES.

 

Except when they FAIL, just like they have already once with a similar "take" on the DGZ back in December. They failed to take into consideration the natural "lift" created when you have a deepening SLP  moving thru, especially one with warm lakes, almost extreme levels of CAA, and decent winds. I'm not calling for mega amounts of LES, but I'd wager they end up eating their words that this is "not much LES at all"

 

Good Luck up there. If not massively huge in amounts, this looks to be huge in areal coverage, and will certainly be my biggest event since Vet's Day

[hlcater]

Reaffirming my guess for CR of 4”. Still looks good.

[Niko]

Perfect! expecting to get slammed

 

 

Totally agree on this ofc. When they get all hyped-up and go Watch/Warn, I don't get jack anyways. And having just busted hard on W/W headlines, we are likely stuck with WWA's the rest of our natural lives (only slightly j/k). The one thing going in their favor this time is the duration and the broken-up snowy periods and lull in the middle. Still, they are completely ignoring (attm anyways) the models that show high rates overcoming the WAA (just like yby experienced with the 12/1 version of this storm) and dumping dbl that 3-5" call just on the front end. At the very least, the front end will not need to over-perform by much to hit 6" in 12 hrs which should qualify for a Warning. Another point made last night by KLOT is that a 5" pounding of heavy wet snow and/or mix has the same of more impacts on roadways and traffic than say a 6" lighter snow falling over a 10-12 hr period. I've been making that point for years and it was refreshing to see that at least one Met at one NWS office "gets it" wrt true street level impacts. 

 

 

Except when they FAIL, just like they have already once with a similar "take" on the DGZ back in December. They failed to take into consideration the natural "lift" created when you have a deepening SLP  moving thru, especially one with warm lakes, almost extreme levels of CAA, and decent winds. I'm not calling for mega amounts of LES, but I'd wager they end up eating their words that this is "not much LES at all"

 

Good Luck up there. If not massively huge in amounts, this looks to be huge in areal coverage, and will certainly be my biggest event since Vet's Day

Good write-up amigo. Amen to that!

 

Very good snowfall rates here as well. 5-8"+. Might go to drizzle at the end (afternoon) b4 going back to snow Sat nite.

[jaster220]

Model trend is much snowier down this way. I remain skeptical of these high of totals.  I'd be thrilled with 4".  If somehow we manage 5 or 6 that'd be gravy.  2" seems like a worst case scenario, so hopefully we avoid that.  

 

Well, so far the offices apparently are as well. Erring on the safe side after last weekend seems the right thing to do. I'm up for a pleasant surprise tho myself. This system back in Dec had a history of high rates on the front end overcoming the WAA, catching my office asleep at the wheel. A "surprise" 5" snow fall in this era is almost unheard of, yet that's exactly what happened right in GRR's backyard thanks to the dynamical cooling of an impressive shortwave/trough. Could see this being the case again. Most models continue to draw that line where WAA meets higher rate trumping it further south than a day or 2 ago. I see that shift as insurance just in case they truly are under-playing the WAA push. Should be interesting to see how this plays out and whether the LRC helps not only with the "when" of potential systems, but the "style" of a given system as well. 

[Stacsh]

Perfect! expecting to get slammed

 

 

Totally agree on this ofc. When they get all hyped-up and go Watch/Warn, I don't get jack anyways. And having just busted hard on W/W headlines, we are likely stuck with WWA's the rest of our natural lives (only slightly j/k). The one thing going in their favor this time is the duration and the broken-up snowy periods and lull in the middle. Still, they are completely ignoring (attm anyways) the models that show high rates overcoming the WAA (just like yby experienced with the 12/1 version of this storm) and dumping dbl that 3-5" call just on the front end. At the very least, the front end will not need to over-perform by much to hit 6" in 12 hrs which should qualify for a Warning. Another point made last night by KLOT is that a 5" pounding of heavy wet snow and/or mix has the same of more impacts on roadways and traffic than say a 6" lighter snow falling over a 10-12 hr period. I've been making that point for years and it was refreshing to see that at least one Met at one NWS office "gets it" wrt true street level impacts.

 

 

Except when they FAIL, just like they have already once with a similar "take" on the DGZ back in December. They failed to take into consideration the natural "lift" created when you have a deepening SLP moving thru, especially one with warm lakes, almost extreme levels of CAA, and decent winds. I'm not calling for mega amounts of LES, but I'd wager they end up eating their words that this is "not much LES at all"

 

Good Luck up there. If not massively huge in amounts, this looks to be huge in areal coverage, and will certainly be my biggest event since Vet's Day

It’s just nice to see snow in the forecast. Currently getting off and on snow showers off the lake. 23 degrees out. It’s winter out!!!

[St Paul Storm]

MPX upgraded to a warning. Gusts now increased up to 40mph during the storm. Gonna ‘work’ from home tomorrow.

[jcwxguy]

Euro

[East Dubzz]

I like that run. I think it keeps it all snow around here, though I could be wrong. 

[jcwxguy]

Yikes