Jan 17th-19th Rain/Snow/Mix/LES System

[jaster220]

MPX upgraded to a warning. Gusts now increased up to 40mph during the storm. Gonna ‘work’ from home tomorrow.

 

Love a windy snow fall. The backside looks interesting here Saturday night as well tho not much talk yet about that component of this storm. Congrats on yet another Warning. I will be surprised if I get an invite to that party. I only get invites when the party ends up getting cancelled 

[james1976]

I believe I stay all snow with Euro. And I'm in the bullseye for IA anyway with 6+. Lock it in!

[james1976]

Upgraded to warning west of Ft Dodge now. I'd love to score a warning out of this.

[St Paul Storm]

I believe I stay all snow with Euro. And I'm in the bullseye for IA anyway with 6+. Lock it in!

Any word on ratios down by you? Talk of 12-14:1 up this way.

[bud2380]

I'd be very happy with the 4 1/2" the Euro shows for MBY.  

[bud2380]

Any word on ratios down by you? Talk of 12-14:1 up this way.

 

I checked Cobb output #'s for both CR and Waterloo and they both start around 14:1 and drop to 10:1 as the snow progresses.  

[Grizzcoat]

Any word on ratios down by you? Talk of 12-14:1 up this way.

Seems a little low but I dont get the retirement package---

Scientific discussion...

 

Friday`s snow ratios with this event will absolutely be worth

watching. With notably different temperatures profiles from southern

to northern Iowa, snow ratios along and south of I-80 may be closer

to the 5-7:1 range, whereas snow in northern Iowa may be closer to

the 12-15:1 range. Should this play out, the impacts would be

notably different... especially given the strong winds in northern

Iowa. Prior to the transition to freezing precip, northern Iowa may

contend with notably more blowing snow than central/southern Iowa.

[james1976]

Any word on ratios down by you? Talk of 12-14:1 up this way.

DMX said N IA should be 12-15:1

[Grizzcoat]

What's up with the Euro? How does many parts of IA get more snow than the TC?  I think the Euro is overrated.

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2020011612&fh=114&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=sn10_acc&m=ecmwf_full

[jaster220]

So now, only the GFS is still clinging to it's N and warm look on Saturday here. Even the ICON barely gets "non-snow" line into the most southern tier of counties. 

[East Dubzz]

What's up with the Euro? How does many parts of IA get more snow than the TC?  I think the Euro is overrated.

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2020011612&fh=114&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=sn10_acc&m=ecmwf_full

 Part of it probably has to do with the snow ratios. For example, look how much that changes things on the GFS...

 

10:1 Ratios:

 

 

 

And then Kuchera Ratios:

 

[Madtown]

Still think the euro has the right idea with a straight cutoff along the southern edge where ever it sets up....wouldnt be surprised to see it start drying out lower MI a bit tonight as well. 4-6 area wide with some higher totals of 6-8 is my final call

[East Dubzz]

Just realized the DVN changed their Winter Storm Watch to 2-4" of snow instead of 3-5.

[St Paul Storm]

What's up with the Euro? How does many parts of IA get more snow than the TC?  I think the Euro is overrated.

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2020011612&fh=114&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=sn10_acc&m=ecmwf_full

Euro isn’t very good with smaller mesoscale features. We’re definitely in short term model mode now.

[Grizzcoat]

 Part of it probably has to do with the snow ratios. For example, look how much that changes things on the GFS...

 

10:1 Ratios:

 

 

 

And then Kuchera Ratios:

 

=aobve

Your likely right. But my Pivota EUROl doesn't give me Kuchera0- just 10:1. u

[ToastedRavs]

Des Moines considering upgrade to warnings, most likely hwy 20 north. Could be hwy 30 north. Should be out soon if they pull the trigger.

[Stormy]

TWC just sucks guys. That's all there is to it.

 

Accuweather is still worse. Their name should be inaccuweather. Actually I've not checked them out in maybe a few years and they might be more accurate by now. Haha

[East Dubzz]

Accuweather is still worse. Their name should be inaccuweather. Actually I've not checked them out in maybe a few years and they might be more accurate by now. Haha

 

I think they got worse. But yeah, I learned a long time ago to not pay attention to either of those places.

[james1976]

Accuweather is still worse. Their name should be inaccuweather. Actually I've not checked them out in maybe a few years and they might be more accurate by now. Haha

Haha innaccurateweather is what I've always called em

[james1976]

La Crosse just upgraded to warning

[SE Wisconsin]

MKX AFD update at 12:34pm

 

"Models are on track to bring the surface low across southern WI
Saturday morning. We are plugging in some new numbers but
remaining conservative on amounts, and also working with
neighboring offices to determine headlines. Updates will be out by
mid afternoon."

[jaster220]

Still think the euro has the right idea with a straight cutoff along the southern edge where ever it sets up....wouldnt be surprised to see it start drying out lower MI a bit tonight as well. 4-6 area wide with some higher totals of 6-8 is my final call

 

Why? trends have been the opposite actually. I'm not a Met so I haven't the science as to what the atmosphere may be doing to paint that picture but mostly I believe it's just a result of the colder/south trends making for less over-all liquid precip. The front-end thump is robust, then we get the backside with help from the lake, plus a little bit in between if I'm reading the 6 hr increments correctly. 

 

This is 10:1 for the full weekend. Pretty sure KCH would show a bit more, so this isn't the "weenie" map, lol

 

[jaster220]

La Crosse just upgraded to warning

 

LOL at no headlines east of the Mississippi Rvr.   Boy have offices gotten gun shy in the wake of this winter and last weekend, yikes!

[Stacsh]

Haven't seen this in a LONG time.  

 

 

[Stormy]

I'm kinda riding the line down here. Not sure how much mixing I'll get. Sure is cold enough for snow right now! I had a low of exactly 0° this morning.

 

Precipitation is really getting going in Tx. attm.

[james1976]

Prolly wont affect the storm at all but today has been colder than forecasted. Only sitting at 4 right now.

[james1976]

Des Moines is always slow at updating

[snowstorm83]

18z HRRR looks good for eastern Nebraska. Stays snow for most appreciable precipitation.

[Niko]

Winterstorm Watch issued for my area..........

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI237 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2020MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-171215-/O.NEW.KDTX.WS.A.0002.200118T0500Z-200118T1700Z/Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-Including the cities of Midland, Bay City, Bad Axe, Saginaw,Caro, Sandusky, Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron, Howell,Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe237 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2020...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGHSATURDAY MORNING...* WHAT...Snow, heavy at times. Total accumulation of 4 to 7  inches. Snow may mix with sleet near the Ohio border.* WHERE...All of southeast Michigan.* WHEN...Late Friday night through noon Saturday.* IMPACTS...Snow-covered roads and limited visibility within heavy Snow

 

Looks like I am getting All Snow!!!!!!!

[Niko]

LOL at no headlines east of the Mississippi Rvr.   Boy have offices gotten gun shy in the wake of this winter and last weekend, yikes!

Pssssst....you might wanna double check on that.

 

Nevermind amigo, just saw that your area is under WWA...WATTTT??? Makes no sense...very ironic tbh!!! Wow........GRR needs to rethink this.

[james1976]

DMX a bit concerned about power line issues with the wet snow and high wind plus any icing.

[Clinton]

15z SREF

[Stacsh]

Jaster buddy---did ya get invited??

 

No update yet.  I'm expecting a WWA.  They will say something like it's  friday night, rain saturday blah blah blah. 

[james1976]

15z SREF

Nice! And keep that mix south of me!

[Clinton]

Nice! And keep that mix south of me!

It's starting to look real nasty down my way, I may exceed 1/2 in of ice.

[ToastedRavs]

Shocked that Des Moines included the metro in the warning! CYA is best reason in my opinion

[james1976]

It's starting to look real nasty down my way, I may exceed 1/2 in of ice.

What's your wind looking like? You could be pushing ice storm criteria.

[bud2380]

18z NAM just decided to put a bullseye right over my house.  8.7"

 

 

[james1976]

First winter storm warning of the season! 3-6....tenth of ice....up to 50mph wind Saturday.

[Tom]

12z EPS...