Jump to content

Jan 17th-19th Rain/Snow/Mix/LES System


jaster220

Recommended Posts

The 00z HRRR still wants to expand the mix well north once the main WAA snow band pushes through.

 

hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_26.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Don't know if this was posted or not ( just awoke), but DMX talking blizzard,

 

Friday and Friday night...Deep trough shifts across the Rockies with

a surface low developing over the Central Plains. Strong warm and

moisture advection occurs over the state but soundings show a very

stark gradient to the moisture with most moisture staying west of

the Missouri River through 12Z. From 12Z to 15Z deep moisture

pushes into central Iowa and with fairly quick saturation and decent

lift, we should quickly start to snow by mid morning and we will

likely accumulate snow fairly quickly through noon or early

afternoon. As the low shifts into us Friday mid to late afternoon

through the evening we lose our ice introduction and precip

transitions to drizzle or freezing drizzle. As the low shifts east

Friday night and colder air comes in, precip will transition back to

snow with strong winds coming in with the colder air. Soundings

show 50+ kts atop the mixed layer and this will likely all mix down

so we are looking at a blizzard or near blizzard event possible

north into central Iowa. With the variety of winter weather, timing

issues, ice accruals of a tenth of an inch or so and their affects

on power lines and trees with the wind, we kept headlines simple

with an advisory far south and a warning central and north. We may

need to transition to a blizzard warning later but this will be

handled in future updates as the storm progresses.

  • Like 4

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

LOT has bumped totals in the updated snow map. Solid 4-6" now.

 

Per a Met there:

 

The other concerning trend today is slower to warm temps south to north tomorrow night, prolonging frozen p-type. At 06z tomorrow night, the surface wet bulb zero line is still completely south of the LOT CWA on all the operational models. Precip rates where ZR occurs longest in our south could be rather high for efficient accretion but I think realistic shot at ice storm criteria (0.25"+) somewhere I-80 and south.

 

South trend for the RN/SN line is legit imo..

  • Like 4

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

LOT has bumped totals in the updated snow map. Solid 4-6" now.

 

Per a Met there:

 

 

South trend for the RN/SN line is legit imo..

00z NAM confirms the above and into S MI. The RPM

model has been showing this since yesterday. Dynamic cooling along with a corridor of heavy precipitation coming up from the south favors our area to see some really nice snowfall rates tomorrow night.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sure glad my office is on top of things (sarc). Back to their M.O. of calling a dynamically developing situation from 2 days out. Oh, and let's just ignore late-game trends on the guidance since they were all wrong last time. 

 

Something has to be whacked, my forecast looks nothing like what most models are showing:

 

20200106 18z Euro KCH Snowfall_h54.png

 

 

  • Like 3

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sure glad my office is on top of things (sarc). Back to their M.O. of calling a dynamically developing situation from 2 days out. Oh, and let's just ignore late-game trends on the guidance since they were all wrong last time. 

 

Something has to be whacked, my forecast looks nothing like what most models are showing:

 

attachicon.gif20200106 18z Euro KCH Snowfall_h54.png

Big time man, that is awesome!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

UNO already announced they're closing tomorrow. Closing before an advisory level event even starts? We the south now.

Lol I think it has more to do with the possibility of a change over to ice. Thing that sucks is my brother in law has a home game tomorrow night. (UNO hockey) Hopefully the roads are okay until that real cold air arrives.
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

There's a big basketball game in Iowa City Friday evening.  Michigan is in town.  I hope the storm doesn't keep too many fans away.

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm in a WWA for up to 8" lol.  Plus more LES on Sat and Sunday.  Good call GRR.....

 

That don't surprise me at all after last weekends "Winter Storm Not!" 

 

Low-grade office...#a$$clowns. Every other NWS office is making forecasts/headlines that align pretty well with model guidance/snow maps/trends (maybe a bit conservative given how this winter has been, and with this being a complex set-up). And a lot if not MOST of those same guidance maps show a lot more snow across WMI than places like NIL (sorry Tom). It just makes zero sense. Just like their great choice a week ago to lead the way with WSWatch headlines. I think they were the first ones to pull the trigger and may well have influenced others by doing so and "talking-up" that potential. 

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18z Euro good luck everyone

1579521600-rEfQ3bqMQ14.png

1579521600-TAULC25B8aM.png

Looks really good for SMI..... :D

  • Like 2

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sure glad my office is on top of things (sarc). Back to their M.O. of calling a dynamically developing situation from 2 days out. Oh, and let's just ignore late-game trends on the guidance since they were all wrong last time. 

 

Something has to be whacked, my forecast looks nothing like what most models are showing:

 

attachicon.gif20200106 18z Euro KCH Snowfall_h54.png

That is pushing a foot amigo for mby, but I doubt I will get that high w snow accumulations...nahhhhh, highly doubt it. Then again, who knows. Its been a crazy Winter so far.

  • Like 2

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

LOT has bumped totals in the updated snow map. Solid 4-6" now.

 

Per a Met there:

 

 

South trend for the RN/SN line is legit imo..

Big Time....the rain/snow line will be near the Ohio Border, if not even more south then that. All snow for us amigo.

 

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00z NAM confirms the above and into S MI. The RPM

model has been showing this since yesterday. Dynamic cooling along with a corridor of heavy precipitation coming up from the south favors our area to see some really nice snowfall rates tomorrow night.

 

Looks late night/early morning here. I normally grab a few more zzz's on Saturday mornings if I can. Might have to set an alarm this week tho.  ;)

 

Heard one Met say even ORD's only looking at a few hours of 33/34F and drizzle. NAM's shrinking warm/RN zone:

 

20200117 0z nam12km_Trends_fh36.gif

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18z Euro good luck everyone

1579521600-rEfQ3bqMQ14.png

1579521600-TAULC25B8aM.png

TY Sir...you too!  :D 

  • Like 2

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That is pushing a foot amigo for mby, but I doubt I will get that high w snow accumulations...nahhhhh, highly doubt it. Then again, who knows. Its been a crazy Winter so far.

 

Ofc, that's the "weenie" Kuchera map so take it fwiw. Nonetheless, the trends have been increasing on every map. See the SREF Mean Tom's been posting. The latest has the 6+ line on my doorstep and most of WMI in that same range. Add in the fact that there's been almost no winter and this will be a big deal imho. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

APX gets it! I think that's the first time I've seen them go "High Impact" since they began using that format. 

 

A long duration and significant snow event is becoming increasingly likely across northern Michigan.

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Sunday)

Issued at 419 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: High

 

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ofc, that's the "weenie" Kuchera map so take it fwiw. Nonetheless, the trends have been increasing on every map. See the SREF Mean Tom's been posting. The latest has the 6+ line on my doorstep and most of WMI in that same range. Add in the fact that there's been almost no winter and this will be a big deal imho. 

Yep..hopefully, this snowstorm will make up for "Some" lost time.

  • Like 2

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like GRR's own pm AFD contradicts their choice of headlines. Saying the traditional formula for WAA events (and they admit this one is really impressive per modelling) would yield 6-8" just overnight Friday. They also admit "all the models are in agreement on accumulating snow to at least those that we have in the forecast." Tells me they've indeed low-balled the snow amounts by CYA design. They've intentionally separated the backside portion as just impacting traditional LES counties along the lakeshore even tho models argue that the fetch (confirmed in APX's disco) will really favor streamers getting much further inland down along southern tier of counties such as here. I will say they've (today's Met) is a complete 180 on the LEhS/LES and now saying it's pretty favorable after all -duh! APX had even stronger words indicating some stout banding may indeed set-up with rippage likely in those bands. Hoping for a last-minute upgrade or the best bust-ola in a long time, or at least since Nov  ;)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21z SREF mean

1579500000-XkHdR0ivFN0.png

1579500000-ufI5PcrzFFU.png

 

Interesting that SWMI is the only "cold" region that gets to the 1" qpf threshold. Very nice. Thx for sharing that bud! 

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting that SWMI is the only "cold" region that gets to the 1" qpf threshold. Very nice. Thx for sharing that bud! 

Near an inch qpf for my area, but in a precise number, its 0.9". Equals to almost 10" for me and more than a foot for you bud.

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MKX AFD update 8:14pm

 

"The Winter Wx Advisory and snow totals look good for Fri aft-
Sat. Lake enhanced snow will occur over Sheboygan, Washington, and
Ozaukee counties with higher snow totals there. An upgrade to a
Winter Storm Warning may be needed given wind gusts up to 35 mph
and forecasted snow accums of 5-8 inches, but locally higher
amounts possible."

 

I'm really liking these trends.  Just keep them coming!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...