Niko Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 06z NAM... Notice that (Red) line right on top of my area...The 12" amt wants to make a visit again. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 6z Euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Radar looks wicked 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Good call by your office, your about to get hammered! Enjoy!Thanks amigo.....this is a biggie. I'm wondering if I will surpass my Vet' Day amount which was ova a foot. 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 This thing is flying. We have been done with precipitation for over an hour. I got maybe 1" of lots of different frozen precip. School on as scheduled here. May be tough for portions of Nebraska to get some of those higher totals unless those holes on the radar fill back in. Good luck to all. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Thanks amigo.....this is a biggie. I'm wondering if I will surpass my Vet' Day amount which was ova a foot. I hope so! Ice is the story down here, KCI (airport) is closed! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Radar looks wickedIt may only snow for 6-8 hours or so but it's going to be pound town in those heavier bands. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 I hope so! Ice is the story down here, KCI (airport) is closed!UGH! Be careful down there bud..... 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 This thing is flying. We have been done with precipitation for over an hour. I got maybe 1" of lots of different frozen precip. School on as scheduled here. May be tough for portions of Nebraska to get some of those higher totals unless those holes on the radar fill back in. Good luck to all.It's booking it for sure. There's been some periods of moderate snow but too many lulls. And it's hard to tell what's going on with OAX down. Only like an inch so far here and it looks like the best is done. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 MSP evening commute could be one of the worst things ever with likely 1”/hr rates. Probably won’t see whiteout conditions here in the urban jungle, but parts of S and W MN might be shut down due to visibility and drifting issues. Gonna ride my 4.5” call until it busts, which looks like a lock. 3-5” expected by this evening and that’s only half of the storm. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Inside the "kill zone" ( 8 hours or so) I believe of both HRRR and RAP ( BTW I hate that the RAP takes a break initializing on the 12Z run)-- I'd say 90% chance of getting about an inch less than what they are showing and if really lucky meet or exceed those totals. Looks like the FSD area is going to get hammered and than wind tomorrow. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Events like this I wish DMX would go into precip mode on radar. They rarely do compared to other offices. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 An impactful winter storm is expected to produce periods of heavyaccumulating snowfall for Southeast Michigan Friday night throughSaturday. Nice write-up from NOAA Office: Attention turns to the upcoming winter storm starting late Friday...Upper-level dynamics fields continue to suggest the merging ofnorthern and southern streams of the split jet by 18Z Friday. Thiswill support the rapid intensification of the combined upper-levelwave as heights plummet and geostrophic velocities surge over theMissouri basin Friday evening. The feature will induce rapidcyclogenesis on the lee-side of the Rockies kicking a surface loweastward as deep layer cyclonic flow ensues. Given the broad reachof this system, the 925-850 mb layer will quickly become saturatedas efficient moist WAA converges up the Mississippi valleycharacterized by strong low-level ThetaE advection rates (over20C/12hr) across the MI/OH border after 00Z Saturday. The moisturegradient remains very sharp along the affiliated warm layer suchthat 850mb dewpoint temperatures will jump 25C in less than 3 hourslate Friday night as the event gets underway.Shifting focus to amounts, SLRs appear to fluctuate nearclimatological values (about 12:1) with the first round of snow.Forecast soundings illustrate excellent supersaturation (wrt ice)prior to 12Z across the southern counties. Given sufficient cold airin place ahead of the moisture plume, a well aligned DGZ aloft willwork in tandem with efficient riming process to created large andfluffy flakes overnight. Model QPF pushes liquid equivalent valuesinto the 0.75-1.00 inch range through Saturday eveningfavoring periods of heavy snowfall as rates approachthe 1 in/hr mark. Deformation will play a two-fold role with thisevent as the NAM depicts an initial deformation axis along the I-94corridor followed by a second period as the low lifts north later onSaturday. This will help further enhance areas of synoptic ascentand mesoscale vertical motions to produce localized areas up to 8or more inches. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Precip, surface and aloft... 3 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Done looking at models, time to Nowcast. 3 Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 With the radar down it's hard to observe the banding. Dry air is becoming a concern already Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 With the radar down it's hard to observe the banding. Dry air is becoming a concern already Our local ABC meteorologist mentioned dry air punching in from the Southwest. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Of course now we have freezing drizzle at 26 degrees. Not much of an issue yet as there is traction with the slow/sleet combination on the streets and highways. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Our local ABC meteorologist mentioned dry air punching in from the Southwest.From what I can see I definitely am seeing that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Liking the look of the leading edge of precip entering C IA. Expanding and growing in intensity. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Liking the look of the leading edge of precip entering C IA. Expanding and growing in intensity.Should pound when it gets here. Just hope it keeps up for a while. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Latest update from Des Moines: Area Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Des Moines IA616 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2020 .UPDATE...Issued at 612 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2020 Snow has already begun in southwestern Iowa. Timing-wise, this isspot on to around one hour or so ahead of schedule. At 6 am,visibility at Atlantic was 1 mile, visibility in Red Oak was 2miles, and visibility at Shenandoah was 1 1/4 miles. Winds atthese locations were between 7 an 12 mph. This tells us threethings... 1.) We can have increased confidence in our forecast timing beingcorrect. 2.) SNOW WILL OCCUR across our area. 3.) Adverse impacts WILL OCCUR across our area... especially forlocations in the Winter Storm Warning and Blizzard Warning. For this afternoon and evening, this Winter Storm Warning willlikely yield as close of impacts to a Blizzard Warning as possible.When winds approaching 15 to 25 mph, and wind gusts exceeding 30mph, visibility could be less than 1/4 of a mile at times. If you must travel later this morning through Saturday morning (atleast), PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION!!! If you can stay at home, itmay be best to plan on doing so until travel conditions improve. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 I see the DVN changed their forecast to 2-5" of snow. That seems to be more accurate. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE Wisconsin Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 NWS in Milwaukee keeps talking about dry air aloft moving in and a changeover to freezing rain or drizzle. I'm really concerned about that cutting into snow totals here. Sounds too much like a repeat of last weekend. Are we ever going to get a storm this winter (outside of the Halloween snowstorm) where it will be all snow and no mix or freezing rain issues? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Kansas City looks like a mess. Yuck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Is the Des Moines radar being weird or is there a dry hole over the city? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Is the Des Moines radar being weird or is there a dry hole over the city?Might be but the first heavy band is closing that fast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 I am not sure I agree with the dry air being an issue or prevalent at this point and am curious how this is being observed with OAX down. This thing is right on track and in line with timing. Radar will fill back in southwest as day progresses. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 I am not sure I agree with the dry air being an issue or prevalent at this point and am curious how this is being observed with OAX down. This thing is right on track and in line with timing. Radar will fill back in southwest as day progresses.Yeah idk....Des Moines hasn't mentioned anything about dry air Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Already changed over to sleet... Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Is the Des Moines radar being weird or is there a dry hole over the city?Definitely looks like a glitchy radar. I would assume that hole does not actually exist. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feddman Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/uppermissvly_loop.php 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DSM WeatherNut Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Virga and radar angle 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Definitely seeing dry air. It is trying to fill back in but concerning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Virga and radar angleYou getting pounded? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Warm air advection bad in the west. Good in the Mid-Atlantic.,. 1 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 It's called amplification... Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Warm air advection bad in the west. Good in the Mid-Atlantic.,. Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 All 12z runs so far are locked and loaded. If this doesn’t pan out then it’s a total model failure. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 17, 2020 Report Share Posted January 17, 2020 Looks like southern wi gets to deal with the brunt of dry air Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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