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Jan 17th-19th Rain/Snow/Mix/LES System


jaster220

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06z NAM...

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Notice that (Red) line right on top of my area...The 12" amt wants to make a visit again. :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Good call by your office, your about to get hammered!  Enjoy!

1579564800-1UlPgN38Mgk.png

Thanks amigo.....this is a biggie. I'm wondering if I will surpass my Vet' Day amount which was ova a foot. :blink: :ph34r:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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This thing is flying.  We have been done with precipitation for over an hour.  I got maybe 1" of lots of different frozen precip.  School on as scheduled here.  May be tough for portions of Nebraska to get some of those higher totals unless those holes on the radar fill back in.  Good luck to all.

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I hope so!  Ice is the story down here, KCI (airport) is closed!

UGH! :wacko: Be careful down there bud.....

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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This thing is flying.  We have been done with precipitation for over an hour.  I got maybe 1" of lots of different frozen precip.  School on as scheduled here.  May be tough for portions of Nebraska to get some of those higher totals unless those holes on the radar fill back in.  Good luck to all.

It's booking it for sure. There's been some periods of moderate snow but too many lulls. And it's hard to tell what's going on with OAX down. Only like an inch so far here and it looks like the best is done. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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MSP evening commute could be one of the worst things ever with likely 1”/hr rates. Probably won’t see whiteout conditions here in the urban jungle, but parts of S and W MN might be shut down due to visibility and drifting issues. Gonna ride my 4.5” call until it busts, which looks like a lock. 3-5” expected by this evening and that’s only half of the storm.

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Inside the "kill zone" ( 8 hours or so)  I believe of both HRRR and RAP ( BTW I hate that the RAP takes a break initializing on the 12Z run)-- I'd say 90% chance of getting about an inch less than what they are showing and if really lucky meet or exceed those totals.

 

Looks like the FSD area is going to get hammered and than wind tomorrow.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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An impactful winter storm is expected to produce periods of heavy
accumulating snowfall for Southeast Michigan Friday night through
Saturday.

 

Nice write-up from NOAA Office:

 

Attention turns to the upcoming winter storm starting late Friday...
Upper-level dynamics fields continue to suggest the merging of
northern and southern streams of the split jet by 18Z Friday. This
will support the rapid intensification of the combined upper-level
wave as heights plummet and geostrophic velocities surge over the
Missouri basin Friday evening. The feature will induce rapid
cyclogenesis on the lee-side of the Rockies kicking a surface low
eastward as deep layer cyclonic flow ensues. Given the broad reach
of this system, the 925-850 mb layer will quickly become saturated
as efficient moist WAA converges up the Mississippi valley
characterized by strong low-level ThetaE advection rates (over
20C/12hr) across the MI/OH border after 00Z Saturday. The moisture
gradient remains very sharp along the affiliated warm layer such
that 850mb dewpoint temperatures will jump 25C in less than 3 hours
late Friday night as the event gets underway.
Shifting focus to amounts, SLRs appear to fluctuate near
climatological values (about 12:1) with the first round of snow.
Forecast soundings illustrate excellent supersaturation (wrt ice)
prior to 12Z across the southern counties. Given sufficient cold air
in place ahead of the moisture plume, a well aligned DGZ aloft will
work in tandem with efficient riming process to created large and
fluffy flakes overnight. Model QPF pushes liquid equivalent values
into the 0.75-1.00 inch range through Saturday evening

favoring periods of heavy snowfall as rates approach
the 1 in/hr mark.
Deformation will play a two-fold role with this
event as the NAM depicts an initial deformation axis along the I-94
corridor followed by a second period as the low lifts north later on
Saturday. This will help further enhance areas of synoptic ascent
and mesoscale vertical motions to produce localized areas up to 8

or more inches.

:D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Latest update from Des Moines:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Des Moines IA

616 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2020

 

.UPDATE...

Issued at 612 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2020

 

Snow has already begun in southwestern Iowa. Timing-wise, this is

spot on to around one hour or so ahead of schedule. At 6 am,

visibility at Atlantic was 1 mile, visibility in Red Oak was 2

miles, and visibility at Shenandoah was 1 1/4 miles. Winds at

these locations were between 7 an 12 mph. This tells us three

things...

 

1.) We can have increased confidence in our forecast timing being

correct.

2.) SNOW WILL OCCUR across our area.

3.) Adverse impacts WILL OCCUR across our area... especially for

locations in the Winter Storm Warning and Blizzard Warning.

 

For this afternoon and evening, this Winter Storm Warning will

likely yield as close of impacts to a Blizzard Warning as possible.

When winds approaching 15 to 25 mph, and wind gusts exceeding 30

mph, visibility could be less than 1/4 of a mile at times.

 

If you must travel later this morning through Saturday morning (at

least), PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION!!! If you can stay at home, it

may be best to plan on doing so until travel conditions improve.

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NWS in Milwaukee keeps talking about dry air aloft moving in and a changeover to freezing rain or drizzle.  I'm really concerned about that cutting into snow totals here.  Sounds too much like a repeat of last weekend.  Are we ever going to get a storm this winter (outside of the Halloween snowstorm) where it will be all snow and no mix or freezing rain issues? 

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I am not sure I agree with the dry air being an issue or prevalent at this point and am curious how this is being observed with OAX down. This thing is right on track and in line with timing. Radar will fill back in southwest as day progresses.  

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I am not sure I agree with the dry air being an issue or prevalent at this point and am curious how this is being observed with OAX down. This thing is right on track and in line with timing. Radar will fill back in southwest as day progresses.

Yeah idk....Des Moines hasn't mentioned anything about dry air
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