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3.8 to 4.0" and puking snow.

About 3.5".  

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This is such a long duration event, it won't fit the whole sub in a 24 hour window, so here is total accumulation through the storm, but a lot of this in MN &  WI is from other systems as well.  But they do quite well with this one.  I'd feel extremely confident if I lived anywhere in MN or WI northwest of Milwaukee.  

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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The GFS is definitely a bit older initially, but we still end up with rain.  Nobody wants rain on top of fresh snow.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Beautiful map. Near a foot for mby!!! :D

 

Thought I'd start a thread and bring some better luck. We sure need some after that disaster "Major" storm, lol. Going off of my twin-seasons theory, this one looked more likely to happen.  ;)

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Thought I'd start a thread and bring some better luck. We sure need some after that disaster "Major" storm, lol. Going off of my twin-seasons theory, this one looked more likely to happen.  ;)

Excellent idea amigo!!! ;) :D

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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The GFS is definitely a bit ©older initially, but we still end up with rain.  Nobody wants rain on top of fresh snow.

 

Not ideal, and call me whacked, but as long as it's a cold rain (low to mid-30s) it normally wouldn't do too much damage to a dense snow fall. If given the choice, I would chose that vs lighter snow that blows away leaving bare ground spots. But, that's just me ofc. In a convoluted way, I wouldn't even mind it as a way to make a solid frozen glacier for additional snows to build upon. 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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@ Clinton and 12z GEFS

 

p12 for 2000$ (and the Double Jeopardy win) Alex   ;)

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Excellent idea amigo!!! ;) :D

 

Another thing to "like" about this system is how our temps will be as we go thru the week. While there will be a couple 40F+ daytime highs, we will get sub-freezing nights to keep that in check, and the day before I have a high (current forecast) of only 33F which means the ground should be decently cold(er) than the weekend torcher when it was 55F Saturday morning coming off days and days of mostly warmth. This should go a long ways towards keeping whatever amount we do get from just melting from beneath. Even if we flip above freezing and/or get some cold rain for a time. Much more positive outcome on the table with this one all the way around imho. 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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TT site having issues for anyone? Not loading for me attm..

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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My office play it conservative with the early am disco (as they should)

 

- Stronger system Friday into Saturday -

A consensus of latest medium range guidance (GFS/ICON/ECMWF/CMC
and ensembles) continue to show potential for a stronger low
pressure system to move ene from the central Plains states and
bring a wintry mix of pcpn Friday afternoon through Friday night
with snow on the back side of the system Saturday. However it is
still far too early to get into more specifics.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Another thing to "like" about this system is how our temps will be as we go thru the week. While there will be a couple 40F+ daytime highs, we will get sub-freezing nights to keep that in check, and the day before I have a high (current forecast) of only 33F which means the ground should be decently cold(er) than the weekend torcher when it was 55F Saturday morning coming off days and days of mostly warmth. This should go a long ways towards keeping whatever amount we do get from just melting from beneath. Even if we flip above freezing and/or get some cold rain for a time. Much more positive outcome on the table with this one all the way around imho. 

Also, after this storm, it stays quite cold. BN temps each and everyday. That snow aint going nowhere.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Actually it came in a bit stronger,  thus pushing the 0C line up to the "cheddar curtain" around here...but the heavier precip has been shunted east by then.  Nice "thump" snow from I-80 on North before a brief switchover to RN across N IL as temps warm into the low 30's.

 

 

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Madison, WI is a good spot to be this week.  They may get an inch tonight, a couple more tomorrow night, then a biggie Friday/Saturday.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z Euro...I like where MKE is sitting as they will probably get a favorable SE/E wind off the lake for Lehs...temps aloft will be a lot colder than this past weekend storm which will aid in more snowfall.  We saw how much the lake helped producing LES in a marginal set up. The warm lake waters will be your friend this time of year, esp with a strong arctic HP nearby.

 

 

 

 

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Madison, WI is a good spot to be this week.  They may get an inch tonight, a couple more tomorrow night, then a biggie Friday/Saturday.

 

My parents live in Guttenberg, IA and i'll be heading there on Saturday.  If we miss out down this way, it's looking like they won't up there, so at least I'll get to see some snow piles.  

 

I'm not gonna get worried 4 days out about the rain/snow line. Worst case scenario looks like we'll get a few inches on the front end at this point.  It seems I-80 (give or take 30 miles) in E. Iowa is always the battleground for warm/cold air with winter storms.  There must be a scientific reason why.  It's incredible how often this is the case.  

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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12z Euro...I like where MKE is sitting as they will probably get a favorable SE/E wind off the lake for Lehs...temps aloft will be a lot colder than this past weekend storm which will aid in more snowfall. We saw how much the lake helped producing LES in a marginal set up. The warm lake waters will be your friend this time of year, esp with a strong arctic HP nearby.

That’s one pretty map. Let’s just skip the rest of the week and make tomorrow Friday eh?

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12z EPS mean

1579629600-UfPTfX5LYWM.png

1579543200-4eSyoOn5esY.png

1579586400-dNdgP698Duk.png

Looking better down your way for at least a few inches???  Today's 12z EPS takes the SLP almost directly over N IL but most of the precip is out by then which will keep the snow accumulations higher.  Thankfully, this system isn't the typical wrapped up storm with a defo zone, instead, it's looking more likely to be a widespread over-running/WAA system??

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+12" from Rockford on north. Sounds like a great week. Book it! Let's gooooo!

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WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin

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Looking better down your way for at least a few inches???  Today's 12z EPS takes the SLP almost directly over N IL but most of the precip is out by then which will keep the snow accumulations higher.  Thankfully, this system isn't the typical wrapped up storm with a defo zone, instead, it's looking more likely to be a widespread over-running/WAA system??

I think so too, it's going to be a close call down my way, I'll probably get more ice lol.

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Hopefully like last year.

 

Making up for lost time!

WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin

!function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src='https://weatherwidget.io/js/widget.min.js';fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document,'script','weatherwidget-io-js');

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12z EC 

1579629600-smVBiTCscu4.png

 

Somewhat confusing with all the Euro products you have at your disposal, but isn't the Control always more generous than the OP or even the ENS mean? Seems that way tbh. Also could be apples vs oranges as the time-frame on this one is 198 hrs which may include more than others you posted? Idk, just a challenge to parse all those, lol. 

 

At any rate, there are some heavy-hitters in the above individual members - whoa!  As Stasch mentioned, it may be over-playing the moisture a bit?? 

 

@ Tom, feel free to comment as well, thx

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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My office's pm disco done by WDM, the only "known" pro-winter wx guy on staff there. Too bad he's younger and less experienced. 

 

Some good things he points out tho:

 

 

- Next storm expected this weekend with lake effect snow behind it

The system that moves across our area early in the weekend looks
to have a better chance of giving this area more snow than the
system last weekend. That system had the primary upper jet come up
the front side of shearing out upper trough. This system on the
other hand has the primary jet that is driving it diving into a
deepening upper trough. The jet core will be well south of
Michigan by midday Saturday. Since the upper low does not close
off until it is east of here, the storm will be developing as it
moves trough the area, not weakening as it shears out.
As a
result there is much better model consistency with this system.
The ECMWF and GFS have been consistently forecasting snow over
most of our CWA with this system. Nearly all the members of both
ensembles (50 from the ECMWF and 20 from the GFS) show more than 3
inches of snow with storm.


Once the storm comes through we get lake effect into Sunday and
the coldest air we have seen this month so far. More than likely
we will actually see below normal temperatures for at least a few
days behind this system, something that has not happened here
since the middle of December.

Since this storm will be developing as it moves through there will
be a significant amount of wind with this storm

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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