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Jan 17th-19th Rain/Snow/Mix/LES System


jaster220

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Hope this thing cools off. I rather have less snow for myself if that means fewer people get ice. Ice is really bad news for everyone and you can't even have any fun with it.

 

Just a casual observation, but I noticed when we get precip and it gets warm after, we're in a bad pattern, and when it gets cold after we're in something good. The last few years have seen precip and then warmth to burn off all the snow. After this forecasted event, forecasted temps look to plummet. This reminds me of the 13/14 winter where we got snow, then brutal cold, then more snow. Hopefully, we can get some of that back.

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This is such a long duration event, it won't fit the whole sub in a 24 hour window, so here is total accumulation through the storm, but a lot of this in MN &  WI is from other systems as well.  But they do quite well with this one.  I'd feel extremely confident if I lived anywhere in MN or WI northwest of Milwaukee.  

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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The GFS is definitely a bit older initially, but we still end up with rain.  Nobody wants rain on top of fresh snow.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Beautiful map. Near a foot for mby!!! :D

 

Thought I'd start a thread and bring some better luck. We sure need some after that disaster "Major" storm, lol. Going off of my twin-seasons theory, this one looked more likely to happen.  ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Thought I'd start a thread and bring some better luck. We sure need some after that disaster "Major" storm, lol. Going off of my twin-seasons theory, this one looked more likely to happen.  ;)

Excellent idea amigo!!! ;) :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The GFS is definitely a bit ©older initially, but we still end up with rain.  Nobody wants rain on top of fresh snow.

 

Not ideal, and call me whacked, but as long as it's a cold rain (low to mid-30s) it normally wouldn't do too much damage to a dense snow fall. If given the choice, I would chose that vs lighter snow that blows away leaving bare ground spots. But, that's just me ofc. In a convoluted way, I wouldn't even mind it as a way to make a solid frozen glacier for additional snows to build upon. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@ Clinton and 12z GEFS

 

p12 for 2000$ (and the Double Jeopardy win) Alex   ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Excellent idea amigo!!! ;) :D

 

Another thing to "like" about this system is how our temps will be as we go thru the week. While there will be a couple 40F+ daytime highs, we will get sub-freezing nights to keep that in check, and the day before I have a high (current forecast) of only 33F which means the ground should be decently cold(er) than the weekend torcher when it was 55F Saturday morning coming off days and days of mostly warmth. This should go a long ways towards keeping whatever amount we do get from just melting from beneath. Even if we flip above freezing and/or get some cold rain for a time. Much more positive outcome on the table with this one all the way around imho. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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TT site having issues for anyone? Not loading for me attm..

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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My office play it conservative with the early am disco (as they should)

 

- Stronger system Friday into Saturday -

A consensus of latest medium range guidance (GFS/ICON/ECMWF/CMC
and ensembles) continue to show potential for a stronger low
pressure system to move ene from the central Plains states and
bring a wintry mix of pcpn Friday afternoon through Friday night
with snow on the back side of the system Saturday. However it is
still far too early to get into more specifics.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Another thing to "like" about this system is how our temps will be as we go thru the week. While there will be a couple 40F+ daytime highs, we will get sub-freezing nights to keep that in check, and the day before I have a high (current forecast) of only 33F which means the ground should be decently cold(er) than the weekend torcher when it was 55F Saturday morning coming off days and days of mostly warmth. This should go a long ways towards keeping whatever amount we do get from just melting from beneath. Even if we flip above freezing and/or get some cold rain for a time. Much more positive outcome on the table with this one all the way around imho. 

Also, after this storm, it stays quite cold. BN temps each and everyday. That snow aint going nowhere.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Actually it came in a bit stronger,  thus pushing the 0C line up to the "cheddar curtain" around here...but the heavier precip has been shunted east by then.  Nice "thump" snow from I-80 on North before a brief switchover to RN across N IL as temps warm into the low 30's.

 

 

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Madison, WI is a good spot to be this week.  They may get an inch tonight, a couple more tomorrow night, then a biggie Friday/Saturday.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z Euro...I like where MKE is sitting as they will probably get a favorable SE/E wind off the lake for Lehs...temps aloft will be a lot colder than this past weekend storm which will aid in more snowfall.  We saw how much the lake helped producing LES in a marginal set up. The warm lake waters will be your friend this time of year, esp with a strong arctic HP nearby.

 

 

 

 

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Madison, WI is a good spot to be this week.  They may get an inch tonight, a couple more tomorrow night, then a biggie Friday/Saturday.

 

My parents live in Guttenberg, IA and i'll be heading there on Saturday.  If we miss out down this way, it's looking like they won't up there, so at least I'll get to see some snow piles.  

 

I'm not gonna get worried 4 days out about the rain/snow line. Worst case scenario looks like we'll get a few inches on the front end at this point.  It seems I-80 (give or take 30 miles) in E. Iowa is always the battleground for warm/cold air with winter storms.  There must be a scientific reason why.  It's incredible how often this is the case.  

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12z Euro...I like where MKE is sitting as they will probably get a favorable SE/E wind off the lake for Lehs...temps aloft will be a lot colder than this past weekend storm which will aid in more snowfall. We saw how much the lake helped producing LES in a marginal set up. The warm lake waters will be your friend this time of year, esp with a strong arctic HP nearby.

That’s one pretty map. Let’s just skip the rest of the week and make tomorrow Friday eh?

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