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I hope some of those convective snow squalls start popping up later this afternoon enough to lay down a fresh coating over the slushy (soon to be) frozen glacier.

It's pretty awesome. It's literally snowing sideways with the wind. It stops for a few mins and then kicks back in. Nothing is showing up on radar though. Down to 9°. Full blown winter out there right now!
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3.8 to 4.0" and puking snow.

About 3.5".  

Posted Images

I cleared the driveway earlier before the snow got wet and used the snowblower. At that time I had 5.8" of snow on the driveway. The plow came thru (I was surprised as in the past it generally took 2 to 3 days before the plow came thru) anyway the snow at the end of the drive was very wet and heavy. At this time it is getting windy and 34.

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Congrats on the double digits!  That's #2 in the books for you this season...

Thx...i know, it seems like this season it wants to give me either double digits or no snow :lol:

 

I didn't get as much as I did w my Vet's Day snowstorm, but, not complaining at all. Now the arctic air arrives. Winds are already starting to pick up. :ph34r:

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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It's pretty awesome. It's literally snowing sideways with the wind. It stops for a few mins and then kicks back in. Nothing is showing up on radar though. Down to 9°. Full blown winter out there right now!

I remember a day like that last January when the Polar Vortex swung through the region.  The radar was lit up with linear streamers and when you got underneath one of these bands it was a whiteout.  Awesome sight to see.

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Just got under one when I was driving from Hiawatha to downtown. Wasn’t anything like James was describing. But it was still something. Vis came down to 3/4mi or so and it got gusty.

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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Wind just picked way up here as well. No blowing cuz the snow on the ground is now slush.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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@ Beltrami, how did you score up there? I’m seeing some heft totals up in N MN. Did you get double digits?

I got about 7" by noon today. Sun was almost out til about 2pm when the wrap around snow started. Still snow showers out and might eak out another inch. The higher totals were in the arrowhead as usual.
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Conversion band overhead. Hardest I’ve seen it snow in a long time. miss the lake effect this year.

 

Congrats!  Looks like the 96 corridor's getting this one. Just some pixie dusting here so far as has been the case with almost every LES event this and last year due to SLP's running N of here making the winds more WSW instead of WNW or NW. Per some SR models, it should shift my way towards the latter stages of the event but by then it will be transient and short duration of good stuff. Just not a favorable pair of winters down here. 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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So after more than 2 months with only one single light-weight snow to shovel, I got to shovel about 4+ inches of 5:1 concrete. And ofc, in this winter where warmth rules the roost, it was above freezing and blowing a "sea spray" in my face the whole time. Needless to say, my out of shape shoveling muscles are not happy campers right now. 

 

As posted above, after a 12 hr intermission during which every p-type known to man fell/flew, snow is again whitening the ground with temps already down to 25F (and falling). We tagged a balmy 38F for an hour or so mid-afternoon and there was a ton of slush/melting/run-off in streets and lots everywhere. Other than the lack of sunshine popping out, it had the feel of an early spring snowstorm more than a mid-winter event. 

 

I think I mentioned how the low-ratio stuff makes for awesome plow pile material. Snow Loaders were able to do just that this morning at the larger lots. This is from Kzoo, but we even had some 10 footers at the grocery store lot here in Marshall. The last of the old piles were all but gone. 

 

20200118_Lot Pile.jpg

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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5C9C5F7D-881C-438F-B40F-53B118C0FDAC.thu

 

DTX shoulda made a 8"+[snowfall (in) graph] as well. :blink:

 

I'm thinking that yby scored a small "jack zone" of sorts due to the (rare) strong SE winds causing some lake enhancement via Lake St. Clair and possibly even a 2 lake connection w/Lk. Erie as well. That fetch would be a bullseye for City of Macomb. You sure have the golden snow magnet this winter amigo. Hope your blower was up to the task.  ;)  :D

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I'm thinking that yby scored a small "jack zone" of sorts due to the (rare) strong SE winds causing some lake enhancement via Lake St. Clair and possibly even a 2 lake connection w/Lk. Erie as well. That fetch would be a bullseye for City of Macomb. You sure have the golden snow magnet this winter amigo. Hope your blower was up to the task.  ;)  :D

:D :ph34r:

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Just received a new headline............ :D   Part2

 

Action Recommended: Avoid the subject event as per the instructions Issued by: Detroit - MI, US, National Weather Service,

...

FALLING TEMPERATURES AND INTERMITTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS AND SLICK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT... WEATHER... * Lake effect snow showers will track across the area overnight. The potential exists for bursts of heavier snow showers to develop. * Temperatures will rapidly drop into the 20s overnight. * West winds around 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph. IMPACTS... * A quick of accumulation of snowfall on area roadways will be possible within any heavier bursts of snow. * The rapid drop of temperatures below freezing will cause residual moisture to freeze on untreated surfaces. * Reductions of visibility to less than one mile are also possible. && PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * The combination of falling temperatures and lake effect snow will lead to slick driving conditions overnight, especially on untreated roads. Motorists are urged to use caution and account for variable driving conditions by slowing down and allowing extra time. * Prepare, plan and stay informed.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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From Accu-Weather:

 

Snowfall Amount Probability

 
6.0 - 10.0 in Storm Total
Snow expected from Saturday, 1:00 AM until Sunday, 7:00 AM EST
Above 15.0 in 1%
10.0 - 15.0 in 2%
6.0 - 10.0 in 66%
3.0 - 6.0 in 28%
 
EDIT: Accu-weather certainly did well w my storm totals. Their forecasting is improving drastically.
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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Could parts of Cook county get hit by some LES as a potential meso-low may form late tonight into tomorrow?  These type of set ups always are interesting to monitor as these dying lake bands have a mind of their own and can sometimes deliver surprise bursts of heavy snow.  I think @IndianaJohn is in a good spot.  

 

 

LOT's take...

 

 

 

Winds, particularly just above the boundary
layer, are progged to veer more northerly with time late this
afternoon and tonight, which is expected to allow lake effect snow
showers to edge back into our northwest Indiana counties and even
far eastern and southeastern Cook county. The dry nature of the
arctic air, and relatively shallow inversion heights (maxing out
around 6 kft tonight) should preclude significant measurable snow,
though amounts of perhaps 1-3" will be possible, especially
across Porter County where the longest residence time and
strongest convergence appears likely. Minor accumulations of less
than an inch may occur into the Cook county shore areas,
especially from downtown Chicago southeastward. 
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^^^ Nice. NWIN needs some love. They've not had it good at all. 

 

Meanwhile, like I mentioned yesterday, there's a chance for a "squall line" of sorts to move thru today as a last hurrah! of this event. I'll take it if it wants to show up. Just can't blink or I may miss it, lol.

 

-- Burst of snow by lakeshore today and along I-94 this afternoon --


Continuing the previous discussion, we are increasingly concerned
about a snow burst pushing south mainly along the lakeshore.
Although short in duration, this could be highly disruptive and
there are indications its effects could be felt much farther inland
near the I-94 corridor around 2 pm this afternoon.
Given that this
could be particularly impactful to travel, have extended the winter
weather advisory for our southeastern forecast area to cover this
scenario.

Forecast reasoning: This burst of snow will be associated with a
fast moving cold front dropping south during the day. Impressive
surface based convective instability is shown with this feature, and
this is being duly noted by snow squall parameter. This parameter
will be a good diagnostic to monitor on the SPC mesoanalysis page
today. Regarding significant inland penetration of the convective
instability, the NAM is aggressive as usual, but even the coarser
and more conservative GFS depicts this as well. Several convection
allowing models show a corresponding quick drop in visibility
associated with this narrow band extending all the way to Jackson.
 
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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI

709 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

 

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-201000-

Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-

St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-

709 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

 

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast

Michigan.

 

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 

A secondary cold front will drop south through the region today and

produce additional snow showers. Accumulations of up to an inch will

be possible with this activity.

 

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Same here. Sun is out now. 11.3” total here (GRR officially 10.3) . Solid 36 hour event.

Awesome congrats. This was a great storm. Hopefully I can get some LES later today to increase my totals to near a foot! :)

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Same here. Sun is out now. 11.3” total here (GRR officially 10.3) . Solid 36 hour event.

And you were complaining about rain when we were tracking this storm....I'm glad to hear your area got hit good...

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And you were complaining about rain when we were tracking this storm....I'm glad to hear your area got hit good...

Me too, but in this pattern can you blame me? I’m more happy about the LES than the system snow. Just not the year for LES Much more enjoyable.

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And you were complaining about rain when we were tracking this storm....I'm glad to hear your area got hit good...

 

Ikr, that's all we heard. Meanwhile, I ended up with the rain, and almost zero of the LES. This is last winter with new lipstick  ;)

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Me too, but in this pattern can you blame me? I’m more happy about the LES than the system snow. Just not the year for LES Much more enjoyable.

 

:huh:  Why's dat?

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Bingo... Accu-weather hit total snowfall amts for my area spot on......

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/macomb/48042/winter-weather-forecast/20788_pc

 

20200117 12z Euro KCH Snowfall_h84.png

 

Idk what Accuwx showed for here since I no longer check their site. Ofc, I'm thrilled we finally got a nice spread the wealth (mostly) snowstorm. When I started the thread I really wasn't thinking "big snow", yet as we went through the week, trends were better and better wrt models and snow amounts were increasing to the point where run after run of the Euro was locked onto an 8-10" warning grade event here. However, including today's meager 0.3" LEFluff my total will be 5.8" (looking more like a solid 4" snow OTG thx to the 12 hr half-time show). Post-mortem analysis says 2 areas that I feel the Euro failed with (and they're actually related to the same root cause) are over-playing the front-end thump (turned to ZR sooner than even SR models were showing), and totally busted on any sig LEhS/LES down here along the 94 corridor. Most models showed this SLP getting it's act together and dropping as low as 989 mb's around Lk Huron. Instead it was more like several SLP's strung out S to N along the trough. Had there been a single stronger SLP, I feel that the better front-end forcing/rates would indeed have beaten back the rapid advance of the WAA, and delivered a much stronger LEhS on the backside as well. As it played out, the cold wasn't force-fed into SWMI as models were showing, it finally arrived only after the CF passed. I spent hours and hours at 34F and never experienced anything like models were painting wrt high snowfall rates and wind combination. The only thing that did play out when the CF passed was a classic LES on a WSW fetch benefiting those a couple counties north like Stasch. Not a complaint as I ended up doing at least as well as originally hoped, but the models (almost every one) again teased with a significantly snowier outcome than what resulted.  

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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:huh: Why's dat?

I’m a fan of the mystery of lake effect snow. I remember as a kid i went to bed with a forecast of 1-3 and woke up with 10+ with 2 ft drifts due to WSW winds and an arctic front. I enjoy the fluffy LES compared to the usual system snow. It’s rare we get under 28 degrees and drier snow with a big storm. The LP always seems to track near SMI.

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I’m a fan of the mystery of lake effect snow. I remember as a kid i went to bed with a forecast of 1-3 and woke up with 10+ with 2 ft drifts due to WSW winds and an arctic front. I enjoy the fluffy LES compared to the usual system snow. It’s rare we get under 28 degrees and drier snow with a big storm. The LP always seems to track near SMI.

 

Growing up in SEMI, I didn't even know what LES was until my older sis moved to Ludington circa mid-1970's. But, I only visited there maybe once or twice during winter during the 8 yrs they lived there. It was a long way to travel from SEMI to up there back in that era. Needless to say, there wasn't much if any LES where I lived and even here in Marshall, good quality LES doesn't happen too much. I like the staying power of synoptic snow and much prefer it for a base on which LES can fluff up and keep it looking fresh. I had the best of both worlds at my place in NWMI where 20" LES events did happen occasionally. 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Actually getting some decently sized flakes rn and I have a dusting down already. 18.9°F. Didn't even get close to our forecasted high of 26 today.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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